Ernst Pulls Ahead to Solid Lead in Iowa

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) has charged to a 7-point lead over Bruce Braley (D), 51% to 44%, “which buoys the GOP’s hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.”

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “This race looks like it’s decided. That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”

Nate Silver: “This poll, in other words, is a big deal. Just as Ernst’s chances have surpassed 70 percent for the first time, so have the GOP’s chances of taking over the Senate, which are now 72 percent. This is not coincidental: Iowa is a pivot point in the Senate calculus, and the two numbers have closely tracked each other for much of the year.”