Harry Enten looks at the challenge facing Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) as she attempts to unseat Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

“Since 1982, when the new wave of polarization took hold, there have been eight midterm elections. These make for some daunting numbers for Grimes, on three counts: 1). McConnell is running when the other party controls the White House. The opposition party successfully defended 18 of 19 seats in 1982; 11 of 12 in 1986; 17 of 17 in 1990; 13 of 13 in 1994; 13 of 16 in 1998; 11 of 14 in 2002; 16 for 16 in 2006; and 18 for 18 in 2010. That’s just eight out of 125 races, or 6%, when a seat has flipped to the White House party in a midterm. Most of those were when the president had an approval rating well into the 60s. Obama’s approval rating right now is in the mid 40s.”

The Fix: “This will be the nastiest race in the country.”

Kentucky Secretary Of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) will run against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in next year’s U.S. Senate election, WLEX-TV reports.

“Grimes is thought to be the Democrats’ best hope of unseating McConnell, the Senate Republican Leader. Grimes had been considering whether to throw her hat into the race for the past several months.”

Ryan Alessi of c|n2 reports Grimes told supporters that she intends to run for U.S. Senate.

Update: The Lexington Herald Leader has coverage of her announcement.

Matt Lewis asked Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley to shed some light on “how the age issue really impacted Reagan’s candidacy — and what lessons Republicans might learn as it pertains to Hillary Clinton.”

Said Shirley: “It was only after Reagan took control of his own campaign and went out on the road, endlessly campaigning, saying interesting and compelling things, taking it to George H. W. Bush in the primaries and then to Carter in the summer and fall, was it banished.”

“I really want people to judge me by my deeds, not my words.”

— Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (D), quoted by the Florida Times-Union, alluding to his previous life as a Republican.

A new Civil Beat poll in Hawaii finds Sen. Brian Schatz (D) with a narrow lead over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) in the Democratic Senate primary, 36% to 33%.

“Schatz, appointed in late December by Gov. Neil Abercrombie to the seat held by the late Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, is being challenged by the congresswoman who Inouye wanted to take his place. The race has divided the state’s dominant political party, in part because of Inouye’s influential standing in the party even after his death, and because the candidates hold similar policy views.”

Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) “is never going to see a better moment for a statewide run for office, even though the odds of a Democrat winning statewide in Texas could not be worse,” the Texas Tribune reports.

“She would almost certainly lose.”

“There are always more reasons not to run than to run. But she has emerged as the predominant voice on an issue that pits the party in power against the party out of power. She has a sea of orange shirts behind her, and the Republicans are clearly very, very irritated by her presence on the stage. They’re also irritated that their own officeholders are largely responsible for the attention she’s getting.”