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The Gamble
Coming later this year: The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election by John Sides and Lynn Vavrek.
I just received an advance copy and it looks fantastic.
Boehner’s Choice
New York points out there’s a compelling Establishment reason for Speaker John Boehner to pass an immigration-reform bill: “It has become a Washington truism that the party must expand its appeal to Latino and minority voters if it wants to remain viable in the future.”
“The trouble is that there is one group that emphatically doesn’t want immigration reform, at least in its current Senate iteration: a key, very conservative cohort of the House Republicans, which Boehner just happens to lead. Which means his speakership, of late, has become a case study in minefield walking, forcing him to balance one survival instinct against another. If he doesn’t make an attempt at a serious bill, he’ll have almost nothing to show for his leadership, suffering yet another humiliating defeat in a two-plus-year string of humiliating defeats. But if he tries to forge a deal with the Democrats and let the bill come to the floor (where it will need Democratic support to pass), he’ll face a revolt from his own rather large backbench–and he already survived one this winter, when twelve Republicans tried to oust him in a coup.”
“And so, faced with choosing between passing historic legislation and saving his own hide, John Boehner has spent most of this summer punting.”
Senate Control Looks Like a Toss Up
Nate Silver: “A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.”
Why Conservatives May Do Nothing on Immigration
Speaker John Boehner “wants to pass a series of small bills dealing with immigration reform piece by piece, but it’s not clear whether 218 votes, the required number for passage, will be there for any of them,” National Review reports.
“Top Democrats are already signaling they’ll oppose the various bills being prepared by the GOP leadership, and conservative Republicans, especially, are wary. Many Republicans will prefer to simply vote against any bill, even if they agree with elements of the legislation, just to prevent Boehner from going to conference with the Senate. Such a conference, many conservatives fear, could lead to a consensus bill that includes amnesty.”
Greg Sargent: “This is why the critical question remains: Is there anything that can get a majority of House Republicans to support a path to citizenship under any circumstances?”
Why Rubio Doesn’t Have an Immigration Problem
Sen. Marco Rubio “is losing altitude with some conservatives because he’s the Republican face of immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Yet he’ll have a lot of company in the 2016 field if he runs for the GOP presidential nomination,” Jill Lawrence reports.
“In fact almost every Republican weighing a 2016 race – from Jeb Bush and Chris Christie to Paul Ryan and Bobby Jindal – favors some path to citizenship like the one in the comprehensive reform bill passed by the Senate, or is open to a variation of it.”
Tester was Wrong
So when does Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) give us his farm?
Texas Lawmaker Raised $1 Million After Filibuster
Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D), who made national headliners by leading a filibuster against abortion legislation, raised almost $1 million in the final two weeks of June, the Texas Tribune reports.
“Davis, who is mulling a run for Texas governor in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, said in an interview … that if she jumps into the governor’s race, her ability to raise enough money to run a competitive statewide race will be ‘a key question.'”
The Most Conservative House in 60 Years
A new Brookings Institution analysis finds the last House of Representatives was the most conservative in more than 60 years.
Virginia First Lady Under Scrutiny
The Washington Post notes Virginia First Lady Maureen McDonnell’s “retreat from the spotlight has coincided with her emergence at the center of a growing investigation into gifts to her and her family from a wealthy businessman named Jonnie R. Williams Sr.”
“Some of Maureen McDonnell’s closest friends are surprised by the reports, saying she is as sweet as her public image. But some people she has worked with at the governor’s mansion and in state government paint a different portrait: one of someone unable to make the leap into the Richmond fishbowl… Those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid offending the governor and first lady, said Maureen McDonnell can be demanding and preoccupied with appearances — hers and that of the mansion.”
One interesting tidbit: “She has reduced maids and a state trooper to tears.”
Can the GOP Rescue Itself?
Harry Enten: “Is the Republican party heading for doom? My guess is Republican primary voters with a big assist from party insiders will solve the problem. There’s a tendency among many to think that Republican primary voters are the driving force behind the Republican party’s move to the right. The academic literature tends to dismiss that view. Moreover, there is a good bit of evidence to suggest that Republican presidential primary voters put one goal above pretty much all others: winning.”
GOP Mulls Removal of McDonnell
Jeff Schapiro notes that Republicans are contemplating the
resignation or even the forced removal of Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) as he deals with a gifts scandal.
“Defending their majority this fall, House of Delegates Republicans will
cut and run on the first sign that McDonnell’s problems are becoming
theirs. Their survival instinct will demand it. An alarming harbinger
for Republicans: conservative bloggers, who had already turned against
McDonnell for raising taxes, report as fact that his resignation is
inevitable, part of a plea agreement with prosecutors. An administration
that ordinarily ignores the blogs did otherwise this time, issuing a
forceful denial. Should pressure intensify because of hostile public
opinion, fed by unflattering news reports that go unanswered by
McDonnell, House Republicans may have no option than to tell him he has
none: that it’s time for him to go.”
Spitzer Has a New Book Out
Anti-Abortion Movement Changes Tactics
Beth Reinhard: “Abortion opponents have turned to different tactics since the Supreme Court legalized most abortions half a century ago, from imposing 24-hour waiting periods to banning late-term procedures to requiring minors to get permission.”
“The anti-abortion movement’s success, however, stems in part from activists making the case that tougher clinic regulation is a mainstream cause to improve women’s safety… It’s a public relations strategy that seems to be working, even as an 11-hour fillibuster by Texas Sen. Wendy Davis has energized Democrats in her state. At a time when the Republican Party is trying to refute Democratic attacks that abortion limits constitute a ‘war on women,’ increasing regulations on clinics can be framed as a positive blow for public health.”
Why Republicans Think They’ll Win Senate Majority
“For the first time this year, Republican strategists believe they’re within striking distance of taking back control of the Senate, thanks to untimely Democratic Senate retirements and red-state Democratic recruits deciding not to run for Congress. The latest blow to Democrats: former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s surprising decision Saturday to pass up a campaign,” National Journal reports.
“Republican recognize that they only need to win three Senate seats in the most of conservative of states — Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska — and Mitch McConnell could be a Majority Leader in 2015. (That is, if McConnell can hold onto his own Kentucky seat.) The latest developments underline how punishing the map is for Democrats for 2014, and little margin for error they have.”
“Democrats can afford to lose up to five Senate seats and still maintain their majority, but they already risk conceding over half that number before campaigning even gets underway.”
Sean Trende: “Republicans aren’t favored to win back the
Senate, but suddenly there is a pretty clear path forward.”
Menino Will Write Memoir
Boston Mayor Thomas Menino (D) “has inked a deal to author a book chronicling his life, career, and long reign in City Hall’s corner office,” the Boston Globe reports.
Said Menino: “It’s a story of my 20 years as mayor, the things we’ve dealt with, and the changes we’ve seen.”
“The book will be co-written by Jack Beatty, an author and political analyst for public radio… He is the author of The Rascal King, published in 2000, which is considered the definitive account of former Boston mayor and Massachusetts governor James Michael Curley.”
Gomez Open to Another Run
Less than three weeks after losing a special US Senate election, Gabriel Gomez (R) said he is open to making another run for political office, the Boston Globe reports.
Said Gomez: “If something does pop up and I’ve got the same passion that I had for this last race, then I would be interested in it.”
He added: “Nothing is off the table.”
How Clinton Changed Gender Politics
E.J. Dionne: “What’s obvious to everyone is that Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming Democratic favorite, if she decides to get in… The last time, she had to persuade the party. This time, the party wants to persuade her.”
“Clinton’s gender is certainly relevant to the desire of so many who want her nominated. She would, indeed, appeal to women of diverse political views who want to break the presidential glass ceiling. But support for Clinton has at least as much to do with hard-core calculations that she could win because of her wide experience, her likely strength among working-class voters and her sheer endurance in the face of tests that few other politicians have had to confront.”
