Pacific Standard: “We all know that most voters decide who to vote for well before the campaigns begin. In political science research, this is called the ‘minimal effects’ thesis. Basically the vast majority of the voters vote how we would expect them to long before the election. The first study to investigate this phenomenon focused on voters during the 1940 election. Researchers found that only 8 percent of voters changed their preference over the course of the campaign. In 70 years, not much has changed.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Why somebody would be personally indiscreet is their own problem. Why they would do it in email is beyond my imagination.”
— House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), quoted by National Journal sounding off on the sex scandal that forced out CIA Director David Petraeus.
Bloomberg Ramps Up Political Donations
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg “spent upwards of $9 million of his own money in the final ten days of the 2012 campaign in support of candidates who shared his views on gun control and political moderation, a sizable sum that portends how the billionaire envisions his life outside of the mayor’s office after his third term concludes in 2013,” the Washington Post reports.
Said aide Howard Wolfson: “This is just the beginning. On issues like guns and education, Mike Bloomberg is poised to play an even bigger role in advancing a mainstream agenda and influencing elections.”
Today’s Republicans Look Like Democrats in 1988
Jeff Greenfield: “You’re looking at a political party that has lost the popular vote in five of the past six elections; whose one winning presidential candidate achieved the White House thanks to a fluke; and whose prospects for the future seem doomed by demography and geography.”
“No, it’s not today’s Republican Party you’re looking at–it’s the Democratic Party after the 1988 elections. And the past (nearly) quarter-century is an object lesson in the peril of long-term assumptions about the nature and direction of our political path.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I think that there was a period of time when the Romney campaign was falling apart, people were not optimistic, nobody thought there was a chance of victory and I felt that it was my duty at that point to go out and say what I said.”
— Dick Morris, in an interview on Fox News, explaining why he predicted a landslide for Mitt Romney in the presidential election.
Pundit Shaming
A new website compiles bad 2012 election predictions. It’s a fun read.
Jackson Leaves Mayo Clinic
Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL) left the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota but it’s not clear if he’s returning to Washington, D.C. for votes scheduled later today, the Chicago Tribune reports.
Jackson is under federal investigation for alleged misuse of campaign funds and has been on a medical leave of absence from Congress since June while undergoing treatment for bipolar disorder.
King Will Make Caucus Decision Soon
Sen.-elect Angus King (I-ME) said that he could announce a decision on which caucus to join in time for tomorrow’s party leadership elections, Roll Call reports.
While King is widely expected to caucus with the Democratic majority, he still has not ruled out joining the Republicans.
Politico: “Angus King is gunning for a seat on the powerful Senate Finance Committee, using his leverage as the potential 55th vote for Democrats in a bid to win a spot that would otherwise be off-limits for a newly elected freshman.”
ABC Affiliate Runs Altered Cover of Petraeus Book
ABC’s Denver affiliate accidentally ran a fake cover of Paula Broadwell’s biography of General David Petraeus in a story on the burgeoning sex scandal, Americablog reports.
The book’s real title is All In. The doctored book cover read, All Up In My Snatch.
Lawmaker Wants to be Paid in Gold and Silver Coins
Montana state Rep. Jerry O’Neil (R) “is spooked enough about the country’s fiscal picture to request that his legislative pay come in the form of gold and silver coins,” the Daily Inter Lake reports.
O’Neil said he is largely trying to make a point and get “people to start thinking about what will happen if our money collapses. Also, I would like the state to think about the logistics of actually following the Constitution when it comes to gold and silver coin.”
What They Could Have Bought
The Daily Beast looks at better uses for the billions spent on election campaigns this year.
Conservatives Losing the Culture War
Harry Enten: “The 1990s culture wars were fought over many social issues that many on the right thought were being redefined from their traditional normals by progressive activists and the liberal media for the next generation. Three of the key points of contention were abortion, gay rights, and recreational drug use. The results from last Tuesday’s election indicates that the right is losing the war on these three issues.”
Fiscal Cliff Negotiations Predicted to Fail
A new Washington Post-Pew Research Center poll finds that most Americans think President Obama and House Republicans will fail to reach an agreement in time to avoid the fiscal cliff, 51% to 38%.
Congress Returns
“Amid a global fright over Washington’s political brinkmanship, U.S. lawmakers return to the capital on Tuesday with a seven-week deadline to reach agreement on scheduled tax hikes and budget cuts that threaten to trigger another recession,” Reuters reports.
“The post-election battle over the so-called fiscal cliff is shaping up as an extension of the political campaign with Democrats trying to rally support for raising taxes on the wealthy as part of any deal, and Republicans countering that such an approach would devastate ‘job creators’ across the country.”
Wonk Wire: Will 2016 hopefuls sink a grand bargain on the nation’s debt?
Ranking the Election Day Meltdowns
E! Online has tweets and video clips of Donald Trump, Karl Rove, Ted Nugent and others upset with President Obama’s re-election.
Is Pelosi Planning to Step Down?
Politico:
“House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will meet with top Democrats on
Tuesday night — followed by another leadership-only session early
Wednesday as she prepares for a meeting with all House Democrats — but
it is still unclear whether she will stay or go after nearly a decade in
power. Pelosi has declined to discuss her plans since Democrats picked
up as many as eight seats on Election Day.”
Woman Runs Over Her Husband for Not Voting
A pregnant Arizona woman was arrested after allegedly running over her husband with her SUV after learning he did not vote in last week’s election, Fox News reports.
Police say Holly Solomon was enraged when she discovered her husband Daniel did not vote because she believes President Obama’s re-election will bring hardship to their family.
Quote of the Day
“We’ve got to make sure that we are not the party of big business, big banks, big Wall Street bailouts, big corporate loopholes, big anything. We cannot be, we must not be, the party that simply protects the rich so they get to keep their toys.”
— Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), quoted by Politico, urging Republicans to “stop being the stupid party.”
