Do Campaigns Really Matter?

Pacific Standard: “We all know that most voters decide who to vote for well before the campaigns begin. In political science research, this is called the ‘minimal effects’ thesis. Basically the vast majority of the voters vote how we would expect them to long before the election. The first study to investigate this phenomenon focused on voters during the 1940 election. Researchers found that only 8 percent of voters changed their preference over the course of the campaign. In 70 years, not much has changed.”