First Read looks at the battleground map and shows a presidential contest is shaping up to be potentially very close, or as they put it, “think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states.”

Solid Dem: DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)

Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)

Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)

Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)

Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)

Likely GOP: AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)

Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

Chris Cillizza
looks at the electoral map math for President Obama to secure
reelection and finds that “the ground on which the 2012 election will be
fought still favors him and should give Democrats some hope that he can
claim a second term in a year’s time.”

“In New Mexico (five electoral
votes) and Iowa (six electoral votes), Obama has an edge… Assuming
Obama can win those two states again — and hold the 19 other states he
won that also went to the Democrat, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), in 2004 —
he would be just 12 electoral votes shy of 270. That means Obama could
would need to win only one of the following states to be reelected:
Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Virginia… What would mess up that
math for Democrats, however, is if Obama were not able to hold some of
the states that backed both him and Kerry. The epicenter of that
potential Democratic problem is in the Rust Belt.”

The Hotline:
“After months of debate inside the Romney camp over whether to compete
in Iowa, it seems the decision has been made: Romney will play in Iowa,
and he will play to win. The most recent evidence: Romney will hold
campaign events Monday in Iowa, his second trip in three weeks after
visiting the state only twice in the previous 12 months; His son Josh
and wife Ann have quietly canvassed the state in recent weeks, and both
have campaigned vigorously there for the Republican candidate in a
crucial state Senate race; and Romney just launched aggressive robocalls
in Iowa attacking Perry over his immigration policies, throwing the
first punch in what could be a heavyweight Hawkeye State bout.”

“The
question is no longer whether Romney competes in Iowa; the question is
how much time and money he’ll invest in the state that so wounded his
candidacy in 2008.”

Despite passed filing deadlines in several early states, Matt Latimer thinks it might still be possible for another Republican presidential candidate to enter the race.

“This year feels very different, as if anything could happen. Who knows: if an establishment favorite like Romney falters early, it is always possible that an entirely new candidate might yet decide to jump into the contest. Hoover, FDR, Kennedy, Nixon, and LBJ each won presidential primaries as write-in candidates. If things continue to be so unsettled, it’s not impossible that someone may decide to repeat that feat in 2012. Just don’t anybody give that idea to Donald Trump.”

David Remnick: “The knowing people who know things in Washington generally believe that, once the electoral process begins, in January, Romney will shed Cain, Perry, Bachmann, and the rest in rapid fashion. Perhaps. To look at Romney is to see plausibility. But a large portion of the Republican electorate seems determined to hop from one fantastically flawed alternative to the next rather than settle on him. A few may be loath to vote for a Mormon; others have ideological differences that make it hard to embrace him. It is Romney’s spooky elasticity, his capacity to reverse himself utterly on one issue after another– health care, climate change, abortion, gun control, immigration, the 2009 stimulus, capital-gains taxes, stem-cell research, gay rights — that seems to bother voters most. They might rightly ask if there is even one thing that Mitt Romney believes in with greater conviction than his inevitability.”

Niall Stanage: “Mitt Romney could be the Hillary Clinton of 2012.”

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Mitt Romney has a significant advantage over his GOP rivals in just one area — electability.

“The survey tested the candidates on six attributes or characteristics. Romney has a sizable lead in just one: One-third of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he has the best chance of anyone in the field to defeat Obama in 2012. Running second on that question is businessman Herman Cain. About one-fifth say Cain would be the party’s strongest candidate.”

“In the other five areas tested in the new survey, Romney shows no greater strength than other GOP contenders. On empathy, 21% say Cain is the one who best understands their problems, compared with Romney’s 17%. On honesty, it’s Cain at 22%, Romney at 17%. The two also run closely on the economy and issues generally, while Newt Gingrich rivals Romney on upholding core Republican values.”

“If you all just listen for 30 seconds, I will explain this one time. We
are getting back on message. End of story. Back on message.”

— Herman Cain, quoted by Time, saying he’s he is done answering questions about sexual harassment allegations.

Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL) was honored for “unwavering support of the family” by the Family Research Council Action Committee even though his ex-wife says he owes more than $100,000 in back child support for their three children, the Chicago Sun Times reports.

Walsh counters that he and his wife had a “verbal agreement” that he didn’t have to pay child support during years when he wasn’t earning as much.

A new Reuters/Ipsos online poll finds sexual harassment allegations have begun to damage Herman Cain’s bid for the White House. The poll showed the percentage of Republicans who view Cain favorably dropped 9 percentage points, to 57% from 66% a week ago.

Key finding: 53% believe sexual harassment allegations against Cain are true despite his denials. Republicans were less likely to believe they are true, with 39% thinking they are accurate.

David Brody: “Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich were on stage together in what was billed as a classic Lincoln-Douglas style debate. As I sat and watched the entire event, I came away with one vivid impression: Did I just finish watching the Republican presidential ticket in 2012? Cain/Gingrich? Don’t laugh. It could happen. Romney has a ceiling of support and Rick Perry seems stuck in neutral.”

“Herman Cain’s poll numbers continue to impress and like Ronald Reagan, he seems to have a Teflon quality to him. Gingrich is steadily rising in the polls due to the fact that voters are starting to realize that this guy is REALLY smart and is an idea factory. Could this be a ticket that provides both style and substance?”

A St. Petersburg Times poll of 100 of Florida’s most plugged-in politicos finds Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans about winning the White House next year. Nine percent of Democrats surveyed said they expect Obama to lose the election — and only if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee — while nearly 29% of the Republicans predict Obama will win.

“The people who vote on taxes are the people who pay them.”

— Pollster Mark Penn, quoted by National Journal, arguing that President Obama’s drive for higher taxes on the rich will eventually bite him.

“I’ve been as consistent as human beings can be.”

— Mitt Romney, in an editorial board meeting with the Seacoast Media Group.

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