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Booker Has Strong Odds for Senate

November 29, 2012 at 12:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey finds that if Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) was to retire — or even if he doesn’t — Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) has a clear shot at the seat.

Key findings: By a 59% to 22% margin Democrats say they would prefer their candidate in 2014 be Booker than Lautenberg. And Booker emerges as the strong favorite in an open seat situation too. 48% would want Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rob Andrews and 13% for Frank Pallone, both Congressmen who have shown an interest in moving up.

Kerry Stays Quiet

November 29, 2012 at 10:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Sen. John Kerry is angling to be the nation’s top diplomat by being, well, diplomatic. The longtime Democratic lawmaker from Massachusetts has largely stayed quiet while President Obama considers him for the next secretary of state. Kerry has asked his supporters to avoid overt lobbying of the White House on his behalf. And he’s defended his chief rival for the post, Susan Rice, amid Republican criticism of her initial explanation of the attack on Americans in Benghazi, Libya. Kerry’s strategy reflects what people close to the senator say is his disdain for some aspects of Washington’s personnel politics.”

Obama Victory Margin Grows

November 29, 2012 at 9:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

As the votes keep coming in, David Wasserman notes President Obama’s national lead over Mitt Romney is now 50.9% to 47.4%.

First Read: “That’s a bigger (and more decisive) margin that Bush’s victory over John Kerry in 2004 (which was Bush 50.7% and Kerry 48.2%). What’s more, the president’s lead has grown to close to 3 points in Ohio, 4 points in Virginia and 6 points in Colorado. One doesn’t win Colorado by six points without winning swing voters; there isn’t a big-enough Democratic base to make that argument.”


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Democrats Win Final Outstanding House Race

November 29, 2012 at 9:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) finally won his congressional race, “earning a razor-thin victory over his Republican challenger after a machine recount produced hardly any change in the margin,” the AP reports.

The 113th Congress will be represented by 201 Democrats and 234 Republicans. Democrats entered the 2012 elections holding 190 House seats — but due to vacancies in three Democrat-held seats, they gained eight seats overall.

Can the Republican Party be Saved?

November 29, 2012 at 9:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mike Murphy: “We Republicans cherish the free market. So now might be the right time to start listening to it. Our party has lost the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections… It’s time for the GOP to face the hard truth, no matter how painful. The Republican brand is dying, many of our strategists are incompetent, and we still design campaigns to prevail in the America of 25 years ago.”

“Identifying the problem is easy. The Republican challenge is not about better voter-turnout software; it is about policy. We repel Latinos, the fastest-growing voter group in the country, with our nativist opposition to immigration reform that offers a path to citizenship. We repel younger voters, who are much more secular than their parents, with our opposition to same-sex marriage and our scolding tone on social issues. And we have lost much of our once solid connection to the middle class on kitchen-table economic issues.”

War Stories from Campaign 2012

November 29, 2012 at 8:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Campaign managers, strategists and journalists have gathered at Harvard for an off-the-record conference on what happened during the 2012 presidential campaign.

It’s fascinating — and I’ll have more when audio transcripts are released — but you’ll want to catch a live stream of a public event tonight at 6 pm ET with top Obama and Romney strategists.

Quote of the Day

November 29, 2012 at 8:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Some do it professionally. Some were entertainers. I looked down the debate stage, and half
of them were probably on Fox contracts at one point in their career.
You do that. You write some books. You go out and you sell some more.
You get a radio gig or a TV gig out of it or something. And it’s like,
you say to yourself, the barriers of entry to this game are pretty damn
low.”

— Jon Huntsman, quoted by the Huffington Post, on the “corrosive” Republican primary process.

Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

November 29, 2012 at 8:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in the third quarter, Marketwatch reports, up from an initial estimate of 2%.

It was the fastest pace since the end of last year.

What Will Romney Say After Lunch with Obama?

November 29, 2012 at 7:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Howard Kurtz notes President Obama will host Mitt Romney for lunch at the White House today — “a gracious move that makes the president appear bipartisan” — and that the failed GOP candidate faces a “stark choice” how he can handle it.

“He can attend the private lunch, slip into a waiting car, and say nothing to the media stakeout on the White House driveway, retreating into the cone of silence that has enveloped him since the night of Nov. 6. Or he can step up to the microphones, sketch out his vision of working with the administration, maybe do a television interview or two.”

“It’s not that Romney needs to do this to salvage his political career; that part of his life is over. It’s that he needs to recast how he is remembered as a 2012 candidate.”

The Week: Three reasons Obama’s lunch with Romney is a good idea.

The Science Behind Obama Campaign Emails

November 29, 2012 at 7:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Remember those “weirdly over-familiar and widely mocked” e-mails from President Obama’s re-election campaign this year with subject lines such as “Join me for dinner?” or “It’s officially over”?

Josh Green finds they worked, and it was because of testing Obama’s digital team did – testing they refused to discuss during the campaign – to determine which subject lines were the most grabbing, how much they should ask people for, and even how messages should be formatted.

The testing found the best subject lines were the most casual and “Hey” was actually the most effective.

Also interesting was that people didn’t seem to unsubscribe no matter how many emails they were sent. “At the end, we had 18 or 20 writers going at this stuff for as many hours a day as they could stay awake. The data didn’t show any negative consequences to sending more.”

Not Close in the Battleground States

November 29, 2012 at 6:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The vote count still isn’t 100 percent final, but Markos Moulitsas notes that President Obama could have lost every state he won by less than 5.4 percentage points — Florida, Ohio, and Virginia — and he still would’ve won the electoral vote 272 to 266.

He also notes Obama hit 48% in every battleground state while Mitt Romney managed it in just two of them.

Deal Emerging on Avoiding Fiscal Cliff

November 29, 2012 at 6:21 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Despite the bluster from both sides, Politico says the contours of a tax and spending deal are starting to take shape.

“Cut through the fog, and here’s what to expect: Taxes will go up just shy of $1.2 trillion — the middle ground of what President Barack Obama wants and what Republicans say they could stomach. Entitlement programs, mainly Medicare, will be cut by no less than $400 billion – and perhaps a lot more, to get Republicans to swallow those tax hikes. There will be at least $1.2 trillion in spending cuts and ‘war savings.’ And any final deal will come not by a group effort but in a private deal between two men: Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH). The two men had what one insider described as a short, curt conversation Wednesday night — but the private lines of communications remain very much open.”

However Reuters reports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will meet with Congressional leaders today “amid signs that the market-rattling uncertainty about the outcome could go down to the wire.”

Republicans Will Need a Wave to Take Senate in 2014

November 29, 2012 at 6:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato notes that in 2010 Republicans “probably threw away three seats when they nominated weak candidates in Colorado, Delaware and Nevada. Then, in the just-concluded election, they threw away, at a minimum, two more seats in Indiana and Missouri… So instead of having a tied Senate, or a tiny majority for one side or the other, Republicans are in the unenviable position of needing to levitate out of a deep hole they’ve dug for themselves.”

Despite a favorable Senate map in 2014 — Republicans only have to defend 13 seat while Democrats have to defend 20 — he concludes Republicans “will need a national wave, along the lines of what they had in November 2010… For a net six close races to tip to the GOP in two years, it will take more than good candidates and favorable geography; the atmospherics of 2014 will have to be clearly Republican.”

However, National Memo notes the GOP divide that cost Republicans seats in the last two elections is already emerging in the 2014 Senate race in West Virginia.

Bonus Quote of the Day

November 28, 2012 at 11:40 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Susan Rice is extraordinary. Couldn’t be prouder of the job that
she’s done.”

— President Obama, quoted by the New York Times, when asked
about his U.N. Ambassador’s frosty reception in Senate meetings this week.

Higher Taxes Than Democrats Admit

November 28, 2012 at 11:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Frum: “Democrats have some inherent advantages in the impending fiscal
negotiations, but they are mercilessly exploiting one advantage they do
not deserve at all: their claim that they wish only to raise the top
rate of income tax to 1990s levels. That’s true for 2013. But in 2014,
the taxes in Obamacare bite. With those surtaxes, the top rate of tax
will rise beyond the Clinton levels to levels not seen since before the
tax reform of 1986. That’s a point that deserves repetition and
underscoring, again and again.”

Hagel Eyed for Top National Security Post

November 28, 2012 at 7:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Sen. Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is being vetted for a possible top national security post in the Obama administration, The Cable reports.

“Hagel was a harsh critic of George W. Bush’s foreign policy, especially his decision to invade and occupy Iraq, which he once called ‘an absolute replay of Vietnam.’ In the years since, he’s remained a strong critic of Republicans in Congress.”

Another Day of Bad Meetings for Susan Rice

November 28, 2012 at 7:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In just two quick meetings on Capitol Hill, Susan Rice may have blown up any goodwill she had with the very senators she’ll need for confirmation if she’s ever tapped as the next secretary of state,” Politico reports.

“Over the past two days, four key Republican senators have emerged from private meetings to blast the United Nations ambassador’s explanation about what happened during and after the deadly attacks on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya. It’s not clear what Rice said behind closed doors to anger all these senators, but it’s clear the meetings went badly and this was hardly a nominee-in-waiting charm offensive.”

Three-Way Race for Virginia Governor?

November 28, 2012 at 6:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R), who dropped his gubernatorial race this morning, suggests to the Roanoke Times he might run for the office as an independent.

Said Bolling: “I don’t have any current intention of doing that, but I’m not going to rule anything out at this point. Right now my focus is on working with the governor to get ready for the 2013 session of the General Assembly, and then once we get the session behind us, we’ll take a look at the political landscape and see how things are coming together. You know, I’m always assessing political options.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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