Polls show Suzanne Bonamici (D) holding a comfortable lead over Rob Cornilles (R) heading into the last day of balloting in the vote-by-mail special election to replace former Rep. David Wu (D-OR).

First Read: “The DCCC spent A LOT of money on this race; some might argue TOO much. But as they will argue, a loss of this special would have been DEVASTATING to their national narrative of keeping the House in play. So overpaying to avoid that storyline was worth it to them.”

Politico: “Republicans glumly acknowledge there’s little reason to expect the kind of upset the GOP scored last fall.”

First Read: “With Mitt Romney’s expected victory at tonight’s Florida primary, the New York Times asks a very good question: Will it mark the beginning of the end of the GOP nominating season, or will it merely signal the end of the beginning? On the one hand, Romney winning Florida would give him a victory in the largest, most diverse, and electorally important state so far. It would demonstrate his ability to bounce back from a major setback (the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary), as well as his organizational and financial strength.”

“On the other hand, you could argue that the Republican nominating contest is far from being over. For starters, Newt Gingrich has vowed to ‘go all the way to the convention.’ After all, hell hath no fury like a presidential candidate who believes he’s been scorned. Ron Paul’s campaign will continue, too.”

All polls in the state will be closed by 8:00 pm ET.

John Batchelor: “The traditional rationalization about intraparty smears is that it’s too early to dismiss the GOP’s chances; that it’s healthy for the party to battle with mud-flinging; that all this will be forgiven in the heat of August when the party embraces the man who would be king. However, the recklessness of Gingrich’s assault on Romney as Long John Silver, and the ruthlessness of the party’s Romney chorus screeching at Gingrich as the Undead, all this does reinforce doubts already in place with the independent voters, as well as creating a YouTube bonanza of clips for the Obama re-elect ops in Chicago.”

John Avlon reports that a staggering 92% of the political ads run in Florida over the last week have been negative.

“This tsunami of sleaze is being propelled by unprecedented advertising
buys. The Romney campaign and its associated super PAC, Restore Our
Future, have spent $15.3 million in Florida over the past month alone…
To put this in perspective, John McCain spent $11 million on ads during
his entire 2008 primary campaign.”

Notes ad tracker Kenneth Goldstein: “For as long as I’ve been in politics, 14 years, journalists call me and ask if this is the most negative election ad atmosphere I’ve ever seen. And every year I say, ‘Don’t be ridiculous. But this year it’s true. This primary season is the most negative it’s ever been. I have absolutely never seen television advertising so negative in a Republican presidential primary.”

Congressional Democrats “are embracing the populist agenda President Obama outlined in his State of the Union speech,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada is planning votes all spring and summer in an attempt to end the tax breaks that corporations and wealthy individuals like Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney enjoy.”

“Democrats would prefer to frame this election as a choice between the two parties, using these kinds of contrasts, rather than, as Republicans position the campaign, a referendum on Obama’s policies.”

Comedian Stephen Colbert’s “satirical super PAC raised some serious cash,” Politico reports.

“Between July 1 and Dec. 31, Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow collected more than $825,400, ending the year with nearly $674,000 cash on hand, according to disclosures filed over night with the Federal Election Commission.”

“What a pathetic situation to be running for the President of the United States with nothing positive to say. All you got to do is try to tear your opponent down to where they get smaller than you are, that’s the Romney model.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by NBC News, criticizing GOP rival Mitt Romney.

A new Pew Research poll finds Republicans remain unimpressed with their party’s presidential field. In fact, more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the GOP field is only fair or poor (52%) than did so in early January (44%).

By comparison, just 46% of Republican voters have positive opinions of the GOP field. At about this point four years ago, 68% of Republican and GOP-leaning voters rated the field as excellent or good.

For the first time in about two-and-a-half years, a national Rasmussen survey finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, 41% to 40%.

Rick Klein predicts that the bad blood between Gingrich and Romney could have long-term consequences for the Republican party.

“Gingrich is accusing Romney not just of liberal and moderate viewpoints, but of a craven dishonesty in his attacks — the kind of dishonesty that will make it seem strained at best when and if Gingrich throws his support behind Romney for the general election. He’s using the attacks to fuel an argument that Romney simply can’t beat President Obama in November. Sarah Palin, speaking to the tea party activists and other base conservatives, is emerging as Gingrich’s chief ally in arguing for the campaign to continue. Her voice was reinforced by that of former candidate Herman Cain, whose endorsement of Gingrich Saturday puts an exclamation point on the split between the party’s establishment and anti-establishment wings.”

Walter Shapiro says Newt Gingrich may indeed be the second coming of Ronald Reagan. But it is not Reagan the governor nor Reagan the transformative president. Rather its the stubborn Reagan who bedeviled Jerry Ford all the way to the 1976 Kansas City Convention.

“None of this guarantees that political history will repeat itself as either tragedy or farce. But again and again, the largely youthful campaign press corps has sold Gingrich short. Maybe Florida is indeed the end of the line for Gingrich’s frail hopes to be the GOP nominee. But all it takes for Gingrich to prove that he is not yesterday’s man is a GOP primary electorate that remembers yesterday — and the day before.”

“Vote for Newt. Annoy a liberal. Vote Newt. Keep this vetting process going, keep the debate going.”

— Sarah Palin, quoted by National Review.

Coming this spring: The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science — and Reality by Chris Mooney.

Newt Gingrich’s campaign has launched TalesofMitt.com, full of recent flip-flops by the Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney.

It is certain that Democratic political operatives have already been
documenting many of these moments, but they have to be happy to have
Republicans lay the groundwork and soften the target with slick ads
using the material.