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A new Bloomberg Poll finds that President Obama’s health-care law “is becoming more entrenched, with 64% of Americans now supporting it outright or backing small changes, even as the fervor of the opposition shows no sign of abating.”
Wonk Wire: Does Obamacare’s lower than expected enrollment matter?
A Hickman Analytics (D) poll in Louisiana shows Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) leading Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) by four points in a U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.
A new Hickman Analytics (D) poll in North Carolina shows Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading Thom Tillis (R) by four points, 45% to 41% in a U.S. Senate match up.
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Hagen leading by two points, 45% to 43%.
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Kyle Kondik: “To demonstrate just how Republican this year’s Senate playing field is, consider this: Of the 36 Senate elections this year (33 regularly scheduled and three specials), the Crystal Ball sees 16 as at least potentially competitive at the moment. Of those races, 14 are currently held by Democrats, and just two are held by Republicans.”
“In other words, nearly all the competitive seats this cycle are in places where Democrats are playing defense. That fact alone indicates the GOP is poised for a strong cycle, although we’re not ready to say they will in fact win the six seats they need to take outright control of the Senate, even though they have a path to six — or perhaps even several seats more than that.”
David Jolly’s (R) special election victory this week is “the latest sign that a D.C. lobbying or consultant background — while far from helpful or positive — isn’t a deal-breaker at the ballot box,” Politico reports.
“Jolly is the second prominent K Streeter to get a nod from voters in recent months. Lobbying shop founder and co-owner Terry McAuliffe won his Virginia gubernatorial race last fall after asking voters to look past a long history as a consummate party insider and political fixer. Two other prominent candidates with ties to lobbying firms or trade associations will face voters this year: Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia and Democrat Debbie Dingell in Michigan.”
“I probably have supported George Bush more than I have Barack Obama. Am I going to switch parties because of that? No. I’m a Democrat, born a Democrat, am a Democrat and will die a Democrat.”
— Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV), quoted by The Hill.
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) deadlocked in his re-election race with challenger Mary Burke (D), 45% to 45%.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) holds double-digit leads over most likely Republican contenders for U.S. Senate.
However, Braley has a 35% to 18% favorability rating, while 46% of Iowa voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. For the Republicans, 77% to 85% of voters don’t know enough about the candidates to form an opinion.
The estranged wife of Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) “withdrew her request for a domestic-violence injunction against the congressman,” the Orlando Sentinel reports.
Attorneys for Lolita Grayson gave no reason for the voluntary dismissal.
Nate Cohn: “Very few incumbent senators lose re-election in states as favorable as Kentucky, period. Since 1956, only one incumbent senator has lost re-election in a state more favorable than Kentucky under any circumstance. That senator was Ted Stevens, who was convicted on seven counts of corruption just one week before the 2008 election, in a tough year for Republicans. Despite all of that, he lost by only one percentage point. He is the exception that seems to prove the rule.”
“Mr. McConnell, of course, is not a convicted felon. And unlike Mr. Stevens, Mr. McConnell comfortably won re-election in worst-case circumstances in 2008, just one month after shepherding TARP, the bank bailout package, to passage in the Senate. Since then, Mr. Obama has alienated eastern Kentucky’s coal country, traditionally the most Democratic-leaning stretch of the state. Without those voters, it is unclear whether there’s still a path to victory for Democrats seeking federal office.”
New York Times: “Tuesday’s special election underscored three persistent themes likely to play out around the country: Republicans are more motivated than Democrats, attacks on the unpopular health care law will dominate many races, and the limitless flood of outside money can easily transform local races into national ones.”
“Democrats were trying to temper their distress on Wednesday, and Republicans were trying to tamp down their glee, recognizing the reality that the special election — any special election — is hardly a perfect gauge of how races will play out in November.”
Washington Post: “Democrats spent Wednesday trying to explain away a disappointing loss in a Florida special congressional election that they had been expected to win.”
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) said the U.S. Constitution is 400 years old, TPM reports.
Said Lee: “Frankly, maybe I should offer a good thanks to the distinguished members of the majority, the Republicans, my chairman, and others for giving us an opportunity to have a deliberative constitutional discussion that reinforces the sanctity of this nation and how well it is that we have lasted some 400 years, operating under a Constitution that clearly defines what is constitutional and what is not.”
Jeff Greenfield notes that Bill O’Reilly attacked President Obama for appearing on the viral video show Between Two Ferns, saying the Abraham Lincoln wouldn’t stoop so low. But he says history proves the opposite.
“What presidents do–what almost all politicians do–is use whatever method of communication gives then the best chance to connect with the citizenry. Methods–and standards–change over the decades: Lincoln would have understood a ‘website’ to mean a home for spiders–but the attraction of “unconventional” means of communication is a constant.”
A new CNN/ORC International survey shows that “support for the country’s new health care law appears to be rebounding slightly.”
“Listen, I’ve stood here after losing some special elections. I’ve tried to put lipstick on a pig, and it’s still a pig. You can bet they’ll try to put lipstick on it today, but you all know what the facts are.”
— Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by The Hill, on Democrats trying to spin their defeat in Florida’s special election last night.
National Journal says Bill Clinton “is an unparalleled weapon for Democrats running this year. According to the new poll, 37 percent of voters are more likely to vote for a candidate this year if he or she has Clinton’s endorsement. Only 27 percent say the opposite. That 10 percent net positive means that the Bill Clinton Stamp of Approval has the same positive impact on voters as a candidate having a abortion-rights stance (+11), or placing a major emphasis on conservative social and religious views (+13).”
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) announced “she will not seek another term in office, an effort that would have required a long-shot court challenge to the state’s term limits,” the Arizona Republic reports.
Said Brewer: “There does come a time to pass the torch of leadership. After completing this year in office, I will do just that.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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