Religion News Service: “The Billy Graham Evangelistic Association removed language labeling Mormonism a ‘cult’ from its website after the famed preacher met with Republican nominee Mitt Romney last week and pledged to help his presidential campaign.”
Has Obama Given Up on North Carolina?
David Challian: “President Obama has not stepped foot in the state since his convention drew to a close nearly six weeks ago. After he touches down in Iowa and New Hampshire this week, every other battleground state will have gotten some in-person Obama post-convention love except for the Tar Heel state.”
Scam PACs
“In the presidential race, and tied to the coattails of Republican firebrand Rep. Allen West, a cottage industry has sprung up in which groups with such seemingly innocuous names as ‘Patriots for Economic Freedom’ use high-profile campaigns and big names like West to raise money for themselves and build their email lists,” Politico reports.
“It’s the inevitable, if unsightly, convergence of the Internet, tea party, the post-Citizens United campaign-finance era and the presence of a Democrat in the White House who is despised by many conservatives. Political operatives can create a PAC and corresponding website on the cheap, drop some cash to rent an email list and, voilà — in come the small-dollar contributions from grass-roots Republicans eager to support any effort aiming to turn out President Barack Obama or reelect the fiery West.”
Dick Morris Weighs In
Dick Morris: “This debate goes to Romney. It seals his momentum and will lead to a big win.”
Did the Debate Impact the Race?
First Read: “The answer comes down to this: Have the past two weeks been about Romney getting a second look from voters and seeing a different Romney than has been portrayed over the past year? Or have the past two weeks been about Democrats and swing voters being disappointed in Obama’s first debate performance? If it’s the former, you could argue that the debate didn’t change too much in the race. If it’s the latter, you could argue that it did. Once again, we’ll be paying attention to the polls that come out next week.”
Harry Enten: “I’m not expecting much, if any, movement from this debate. If it does
occur, it will be favorable towards President Obama. He’ll take that, in
this tight race, as every little bit counts. But remember that
predictions about post-debate movements are not perfect and that any
movements or lack thereof could be erased by next week‘s debate.”
Flashback of the Day
“No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great
nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we
stand for.”
— President Obama, commenting on the attacks on the U.S. consulate in Libya on September 12, 2012.
Mitt Romney insisted in last night’s debate Obama didn’t portray it as a terrorist attack.
They Really Don’t Like Each Other
First Read: “In fact, almost all of the exchanges drove this point home: These candidates really don’t like each other. The two men constantly interrupted each other; they circled each other like prizefighters in the boxing ring; and they also even got into each other’s faces. Overall, last night showed that both Obama and Romney are fighters, but they also demonstrated the worst stereotype of why so many people hate politics. It is also worth asking if a debate that featured two VERY alpha-male performances end up turning off swing voting women who would prefer a tad more comity in their politics and less cable-TV/talk radio style bravado. And where was the empathy? From the get-go, it was clear neither candidate knew how to connect with the questioners very well.”
Political Futures Markets Show Obama Helped Himself
Washington Post:
“At least some people closely watching the contest — those betting
money on the election’s outcome — did offer a kind of consensus view:
President Obama soundly beat expectations in his second contest against
Gov. Mitt Romney… The votes on well-known political betting site
Intrade.com reflected a jump in the president’s chances from 61.7
percent just before the debate to 64.1 percent shortly afterward.
Similar jumps could be seen in other markets, too. At the betting site
Betfair.com, the president’s chances jumped 2.7 percentage points over
that period, and on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run out of the
University of Iowa, his chances were up about 2.4 percentage points in
that timeframe.”
Senate Race Very Close in Connecticut
A new Sienna poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) for U.S. Senate by just two points, 46% to 44%.
Said pollster Don Levy: “Connecticut residents now have high negatives towards both McMahon and Murphy with over one in ten viewing both candidates unfavorably. Murphy is underperforming relative to the top of his ticket while McMahon has more support among most groups than does Romney. This one may be decided on who turns out and how the last minute deciders feel as they walk into the polls on November 6th.”
In the presidential race, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 15 points, 53% to 38%.
Binders Full of Women
Despite all the fireworks over taxes, oil and Libya, ABC News says the most buzz-worthy social media moment of last night’s presidential debate was Mitt Romney’s comment about “binders full of women.”
“The inadvertently funny comment came in response to a question about pay equity for women… Romney was explaining that as the governor of Massachusetts searching for qualified women to fill cabinet posts, women’s groups brought him ‘binders full of women’ who were good candidates.”
The phrase now has a hilarious Tumblr account, Facebook page and Twitter handle.
More seriously, David Bernstein reports Romney’s account of the “binders full of women” wasn’t even accurate.
More Reaction to the Second Presidential Debate
The instant polls all found Obama won last night’s presidential debate: CBS News had Obama beating Romney 37% to 30%, CNN found Obama won 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%.
Nate Silver cautions: “The relationship between the quick-reaction polls and their eventual effect on the horse-race polls has historically been very modest, and has sometimes even run in the opposite direction of what the initial polls suggested.”
Here are some other reactions:
Andrew Sullivan: “To my mind, Obama dominated Romney tonight in every single way: in
substance, manner, style, and personal appeal. He came back like a
lethal, but restrained predator.”
Joshua Green: “I thought Mitt Romney’s second debate was nearly as bad as Barack Obama’s first debate.”
Alex Pareene: “Obama clearly prepared for his Libya response. Romney makes a dumb
mistake: Obama says he spoke in the Rose Garden after the attack and
called it an act of terror. Romney says “no you didn’t.” Obama says “get
the transcript.” Crowley says ‘he did.’ The audience applauds Crowley live fact-checking Romney. Like, twice. They applaud twice. Romney
stutters through the rest of his response, and it doesn’t matter what he
says: He just got fucking destroyed. By the audience, basically.”
Rick Klein: “Not until an exchange on Libya — close on the heels of a
petty-but-buzzy attack on pension size — did the president hit a stride
in tonight’s debate… The president took a subject that should have been a sore spot and
turned it around. He was having a decent debate to that point, but that
exchange — including his call for a fact-check on when he labeled
Benghazi a terrorist attack — made it something more than that, the
victory his campaign desperately needed.”
Greg Sargent: “This race will still be the dead heat tomorrow that it was yesterday,
but Obama made big strides towards turning things around tonight.”
Joe Klein: “Most political debates are like this. There aren’t very many clean wins
or losses. The candidates work on the audiences they’ve targeted-women
for Obama; small business for Romney-and few minds are changed. The
number of minds that are changeable at this point in this race is so
miniscule that I can’t guess which candidate did better at influencing
the truly undecided-which is why I can’t say who won.”
Mike Allen: “Last night was Governor Romney’s last, best chance, because the next
debate is foreign policy, where President Obama is strong. But at the
town-hall debate, Romney discovered one of the basic precepts of
military science: You only get one sneak attack! We now have a tight,
three-week race that either man could win, depending on events and the
subtle electoral ecology of Ohio and Virginia. But at least in obvious
rewards, Obama got a ton more out of last night than Romney did.”
Reaction to the Second Presidential Debate
If President Obama had done this well in the first debate, most would have already written off Mitt Romney. Obama won the debate decisively.
The president had a simple formula: Defend and explain his record while insisting that Romney wasn’t being truthful. He kept Romney on the defensive and came prepared with counter-punches to nearly every topic. It was devastatingly effective.
The memorandum of understanding setting the rules for the debate — and the town hall format itself — went out the window pretty quickly. The debate turned confrontational within the first 20 minutes which probably pleased partisans. Both sides saw fire in their candidate. But it’s more likely that undecided voters didn’t like the confrontation at all.
In particular, Romney doesn’t do testy well. He made a big mistake trying to roll over the moderator. He got away with it in the first debate but he looked mean tonight. His obsession with the rules also came off as petty.
Romney was most effective when pointing out what Obama promised and what actually happened over the last four years. He scored many points But he lost most of them by not knowing his facts on what President Obama said the morning after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. Obama acted like a president in the exchange while Romney was much less. It was Romney’s Gerald Ford moment.
Candy Crowley was an excellent moderator. She kept what could have been an unruly event on topic and very informative.
The Second Presidential Debate
With just three weeks until Election Day, President Obama and Mitt Romney face off in their second presidential debate tonight.
The race appears to be very close. While the president has more paths to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes for re-election, the momentum has decidedly shifted to the challenger.
The action starts at 9 p.m. ET. You can watch it live on YouTube.
Leave your reactions in the comments or follow @politicalwire on Twitter.
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed:
Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (We Ask America)
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Suffolk)
North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Go Bold or Go Home
James Carville and Stan Greenberg: “The campaign has reached a tipping point where we believe the president has to offer a bold narrative, policies and choice if he is to win re-election and get to a substantial enough victory that enables him to govern and face the great challenges ahead. The first debate really did disrupt the race and presents a painful real-time test of what happens when the president tries to convince people of progress and offer a very modest vision of future change Voters are not looking for continuity but changes that help the average Joe.”
Obama Rebound Is Possible
Nate Silver: “If there is reason to suspect a rebound for Mr. Obama, it is probably based more on election fundamentals than the debates themselves. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are just strong enough, and the economy has shown just enough resiliency, that he might be a narrow favorite on each basis. One function that debates can serve is to bring elections more into line with the fundamentals.”
“There is no evidence, incidentally, that the second presidential debate is any less important than the first one. On average, it has moved the polls by 2.3 percentage points in one direction or another — almost exactly the same as after the first debate, which moved them by 2.4 percentage points on average.”
Lawmaker Says Officials Should be Shot
California assemblyman Mike Morrell (R) said in a campaign speech that government officials “should be shot” for how they handle tax money, the Sacramento Bee reports.
Said Morell: “Government picks winners and losers. So what I decided to do in California; study how good of a job does government do with our tax money in helping the poor. … (Laughter from the audience) … Somehow I don’t think you guys think they do very well. Well, let me tell ya. Let me tell ya. It ain’t very good. I mean, it’s, they should be shot.”
Jackson Speaks
In his first public comments since taking a leave of absence in early June, Rep. Jesse Jackson (D-IL) told The Daily that he is “not well” and has doctor’s appointments twice a day at George Washington University Hospital, not far from his home: “I go over there… at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m.”