CNBC: “U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to its highest level in five years in October as consumers became more optimistic about the overall economy in a possible boost to President Obama’s reelection hopes next month.”
Arizona Senate Race Turns Nasty
Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) released a brutal ad featuring a former boss of challenger Richard Carmona (D) saying she once found him angrily pounding on her door in the middle of the night and accusing him of “issues with anger, with ethics, and with women.”
Candidates Nearly Get in Fight
A bitter congressional race in California “took a bizarre turn” when Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) and Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) got into a near-altercation during a forum at a local college, the Los Angeles Times reports.
Video of the event shows the candidates exchanging words and Sherman at one point putting his arm around Berman, saying: “Do you want to get into this?”
“A uniformed officer then came onto the stage and appeared to ask that they move away from each other.”
In Search of Goldilocks
First Read: “The pressure is still on Obama in next week’s town hall-style debate in New York. But make no mistake: Biden — by turning his volume to 11 last night — takes some of that pressure off the president. If you’ve followed Obama over the past six years, you know it’s not his style to be overly aggressive. Well, Biden last night both gave Obama a roadmap for how to attack Romney-Ryan (on abortion, tax fairness, foreign policy), and he gave him room to do it in the way he feels most comfortable. The question is: Can he deliver? And can Romney deliver another solid performance? Obama is looking for a Goldilocks’ performance. Obama in Denver was too cold, Biden in Danville might have been too hot, and Obama, the sequel, has to figure out how to be just the right combination of assertive without being condescending.”
Quote of the Day
“It’s impossible for us to be at 44 in Florida.”
— Obama adviser David Plouffe, quoted by the Tampa Bay Times, on a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Mitt Romney leading in Florida, 51% to 44%.
Other Reaction to the Vice Presidential Debate
A CBS instant poll of uncommitted voters found Joe Biden the winner over Paul Ryan in last night’s vice presidential debate, 50% to 31%. A CNN/ORC poll of registered voters saw a closer debate but slightly in favor a Ryan, 48% to 44%.
I thought Biden was the clear winner.
Josh Marshall: “Biden made the whole Democratic argument — on policy and values and he hit Romney really everywhere Democrats wanted him to. He left nothing unsaid. You can agree with those points or not. But this was exceedingly important for recovering the damage from last week’s debate when many Obama supporters simply felt that Obama wasn’t willing or able or something to make the case Democrats around the country are hyped up to make. Why didn’t you say this? Why’d you let him get away with that? Biden said it all. And for Democrats around the country that was extremely important.”
Andrew Sullivan: “Ryan was hampered by an insurmountable problem on the impossible mathematics of the Romney budget. I think his inability to answer that question – how do you pay for it? – has to be the driving question now.”
Dave Weigel: “Reading this transcript is going to be like scanning a David Mamet play. Biden never gave up the momentum he won in the first five minutes — he seems physically unable to let Ryan finish an answer, interrupting him as if he’s livetweeting to correct every factoid he dislikes. Whether or not this Biden performance helps Obama, you could sell bootleg DVDs of it to Dems for $20.”
Peggy Noonan: “In terms of content–the seriousness and strength of one’s positions
and the ability to argue for them–the debate was probably a draw, with
both candidates having strong moments. But in terms of style, Mr. Biden
was so childishly manipulative that it will be surprising if
independents and undecideds liked what they saw.”
Ben Smith: “The Vice Presidential debate appears unlikely to have the effect on the presidential campaign that Barack Obama’s stumbles last week did, and the performances were far more even. Ryan held his own where Obama failed. But Biden’s performance gave Democrats hungry for energy, punch, and emotional connection what they needed to end a week that had veered at times near panic.”
John Fund: “Joe Biden’s biggest fault is that he doesn’t know when to stop talking.
Tonight, he added to that another problem — he doesn’t know when to stop
smirking.”
Reaction to the Vice Presidential Debate
The vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan was one of the best debates I can remember. It was a great service to all Americans.
Biden had the primary goal of firing up Democrats after President Obama’s lackluster performance last week. He did that and more. He literally responded to every single assertion of Ryan’s and didn’t let a single thing go unchallenged. Democrats have to be very happy.
Biden was especially strong on foreign policy but one of his best moments was taking Ryan to task for criticizing the Obama administration’s economic stimulus package while at the same time asking for stimulus funds for his own congressional district.
Ryan’s goal was to build on Romney’s strong performance last week and continue to reassure undecided voters. In the end, however, he found his toughest opponent wasn’t Biden, it was his own record and the Romney campaign platform. He had trouble playing defense under Biden’s withering attacks. Ryan was exceptionally weak on the proposed Romney tax plan — “not mathematically possible”, according to Biden — while once again refusing to give specifics.
In terms of style, Ryan didn’t take kindly to being interrupted. It was almost as if Biden was coached to interrupt him.
Biden was more prepared, more experienced and the clear winner.
Finally, Martha Raddatz was a wonderfully effective moderator. She continuously pushed for specifics and forced followups to nonsense. She should be commended by both campaigns.
The Vice Presidential Debate
Brown-Warren Pact Unravels
Independent political groups are finding ways around the pledge by Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) to keep outside money out of their hard-fought U.S. Senate campaign, Bloomberg reports.
“The League of Conservation Voters, Americans for Tax Reform and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies have spent more than $1 million on robo-calls, direct mail and door-to-door canvassing in the last three weeks trying to influence what political strategists say is a pivotal race in the fight for control of the chamber.”
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:
Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 44% (Mason-Dixon)
Michigan: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Detroit News)
Michigan: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Gravis)
Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Suffolk)
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)
North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)
Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Gravis)
Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
King Violated Debate Rules
When Rep. Steve King (R) debated Christie Vilsack (D) earlier this week video footage shows he brought notes with him, Politico reports.
“In footage of the debate (at about 9:30) King opens his hand and there are handwritten notes on it. The debate rules said neither candidate was allowed to bring notes.”
Ryan Wants to be Called “Mister” Not “Congressman”
When Paul Ryan and Joe Biden face off at their debate tonight, “the form of address the vice president is supposed to use with his opponent is “mister” instead of “congressman,” Politico reports.
“The form of address is part of the detailed memorandum of understanding between the two camps, according to the sources familiar with the document. Such MOUs detail specifics ranging from how footage of the debates can be used to podium placement, and so forth.”
Tester Trails in Montana
A new Montana State University poll shows Denny Rehberg (R) just ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) by three points, 43% to 40%, with Libertarian Dan Cox way back at 6%.
Why is Obama Over Performing in Ohio?
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin tells Greg Sargent that his polling shows that views of Mitt Romney are more fixed in the battleground states than nationally.
Said Garin: “In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney… All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.”
Warren Opens Up Lead in Massachusetts
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 50% to 44%.
Key finding: “The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win
this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have
control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control.
Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the
crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.”
Latest National Polls
Here are the latest national polls of the presidential race:
Gallup: Romney 48%, Obama 47%
IBD/TIPP: Romney 47%, Obama 46%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
Reuters/Ipsos: Romney 47%, Obama 44%
UPI/CVoter: Romney 49%, Obama 46%
Adult Film Industry Favors Obama
A XBIZ survey of those working in the adult film industry finds the vast majority support President Obama over Mitt Romney, 68% to 13%, with another 14% saying they wanted “someone else.”
Romney Says Nobody Dies for Lack of Health Insurance
Mitt Romney, who has pledged to repeal Obamacare, told the Columbus Dispatch that people without health insurance don’t have to worry about dying as a result.
Said Romney: “We don’t have people that become ill, who die in their apartment because they don’t have insurance.”
However, Reuters reported earlier this year that more than 26,000 working-age adults die prematurely in the United States each year because they lack health insurance.