“I’m so boring that I didn’t even know I was boring.”
— Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), quoted by the Washington Post.
Obama Leads in Three Key Swing States
New NBC Marist polls find President Obama with a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in three of the most pivotal presidential battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Walker Looks Likely to Avoid Recall
A new Reason-Rupe poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) eight points ahead of challenger Tom Barrett (D) in the recall race, 50% to 42%.
A new St. Norbert College poll finds Walker leading by five points, 50% to 45%.
A new We Ask America poll shows Walker leading by 12 points, 54% to 42%.
Senate Race Still Tight in Massachusetts
A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) with a slight lead over challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 48% to 47%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: “Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election.”
Also interesting: 72% were aware of the recent controversy concerning Warren’s heritage. Of those, 49% said Warren was telling the truth about being part Native American; 28% said she was not telling the truth; and 23% weren’t sure.
Rehberg Accident Featured On Boat Safety Poster
Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT), who is running for U.S. Senate in Montana, has become the poster child for boating safety, but not in a good way, the Huffington Post reports.
“Rehberg was one of several people injured in a 2009 boating wreck when the speedboat he was riding in… slammed into the rocky shore of a lake… The startling photo of the wreck, with the boat entirely out of the water, made most local papers. And now, it’s the feature photo of a boating safety campaign in Montana.”
Romney Widens Lead in Arizona
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney has now opened back up a seven point lead over President Obama, 50% to 43%.
During the GOP primaries, similar surveys suggested the state might be winnable for Democrats.
Romney’s Most Trusted Adviser
The New Republic profiles Bob White, a “longtime-pal-cum-alter-ego” to Mitt Romney.
“White, who is trim with graying brown hair, was one of Romney’s original hires when launching the private-equity firm back in the 1980s. He has been at Romney’s side in every major endeavor he’s undertaken since, from the Olympics to the campaign trail. Over the course of Romney’s career, White has served as debate prepper, personnel vetter, designated gut-checker, in-house historian, and diplomatic envoy. It was White who found Romney a campaign manager for his run for governor, White who headed his transition to the Massachusetts statehouse, White who has chaired his campaigns for president.”
Americans Split on Biden
Gallup finds that Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an
unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of
his tenure as vice president.
Proving Which Campaign Ads are Most Effective
Sasha Issenberg notes that political campaigns used to guess which ads were most effective, but the Obama re-election campaign is trying to prove it using random tests.
“To those familiar with the campaign’s operations, such irregular efforts at paid communication are indicators of an experimental revolution underway at Obama’s Chicago headquarters. They reflect a commitment to using randomized trials… designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups and surveys.”
Romney Promises Unemployment Rate of 6%
Mitt Romney told Mark Halperin that if he’s elected president “we’d get the unemployment rate down to 6%, and perhaps a little lower.”
However, just a few weeks ago, as NBC News reported, Romney said that anything “over 4% is not cause for celebration.”
ThinkProgress: “Though 6 percent unemployment is significantly lower than the current 8.1 percent rate, the feat isn’t all that remarkable. In fact, it is exactly where multiple government agencies project unemployment will be at the end of that time frame. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that unemployment will average 6.3 percent in 2016; the Office of Management and Budget, meanwhile, projects unemployment will hit 6.1 percent and ultimately fall below 6 percent the same year.”
Arizona Official Confirms Obama Will Be on Ballot
Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R), who questioned whether President Obama should be allowed on the state’s presidential ballot because of citizenship questions, says his office received verification from Hawaiian officials confirming the copy of the Certificate of Live Birth for Obama matches the original record in their files.
Said Bennett: “At the request of numerous constituents, I merely asked Hawaiian officials to verify the information contained within President Obama’s original birth certificate. They have complied with the request and I consider the matter closed.”
Quote of the Day
“Do not buy into the BS that you hear.”
— White House press secretary Jay Carney, quoted by The Hill, saying it was “a sign of sloth and laziness” that reporters bought into the GOP idea that federal spending increased dramatically under President Obama.
Wonk Wire: The spending spree that never happened.
Obama Has Huge Lead Among Latinos
A new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll finds President Obama holds a 34-point lead over Mitt Romney among registered Latino voters, 61% to 27%.
In 2008, according to the exit polls, Obama defeated McCain among this key voting bloc, 67% to 31%.
Washington: Behind Closed Doors
Coming on DVD next month: Washington: Behind Closed Doors, the miniseries based on John Ehrlichman’s post-Watergate novel The Company.
Rattner Unloads on Romney
Steven Rattner, the former Obama administration official who criticized the president’s attacks on Mitt Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital, clarifies his position in the New York Times:
“On Monday, Mr. Obama struck the right balance, emphasizing that he wasn’t attacking private equity but was questioning Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital credentials to be the job creator in chief. That’s fair, particularly because Mr. Romney himself has been foolishly reweaving history to claim, as recently as last week, that he helped create 100,000 jobs during his time at Bain. In fact, Bain Capital — like other private equity firms — was founded and managed for profit: ideally, huge amounts of gain earned legally and legitimately. Any job creation was a welcome but secondary byproduct.”
“Adding jobs was never Mitt Romney’s private sector agenda, and it’s appropriate to question his ability to do so.”
First Read: “One of the downsides to Republicans and the Romney campaign citing the
Cory Bookers, Steve Rattners, etc. when it comes to Bain Capital is
this: These folks are supporting Obama, not Romney.”
Pro-Choice Americans at Record Low
A new Gallup poll finds 41% of Americans identify themselves as “pro-choice,” a record low, while 50% now call themselves “pro-life,” one point shy of the record high.
Trump Wants Big Speaking Slot at Convention
Donald Trump wants a big speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, BuzzFeed reports, asking his Twitter followers to “imagine him speaking at the RNC Convention.”
He added: “That’s a speech everyone would watch.”
One of Trump’s advisers told the Daily Caller that Trump’s “massive popularity is just one of the many reasons he is being sought as a keynote speaker at the Tampa RNC Convention.”
Lawmaker Says Photoshopping Mom Was a Clever Scheme
Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA) apparently sent Jewish voters campaign mail with a picture of his family including his mother, while other voters got the same picture without his mother, LA Observed reports.
When confronted, Sherman claimed it was actually a clever trick which forced the media to print pictures of his family.
