Steve Kornacki notes that we all remember that George W. Bush “became president 12 years ago despite receiving 543,816 fewer votes than Al Gore. With an assist from the Supreme Court, Bush narrowly carried Florida, allowing him to eke out the narrowest of victories in the Electoral College, 271-267.”

“What we tend to forget, though, is that pre-election polls forecasted the exact opposite outcome. In the weeks leading up to Election Day, it was Bush who had led in the national horserace and Gore who’d held the edge in the three key swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida.”

“In the race’s closing days, Republicans began making noise about launching a pressure campaign to change the votes of electors if Gore were to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.”

Here are the latest national tracking polls of the presidential race:

ABC News/Washington Post: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Politico/George Washington University: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

Public Policy Polling: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

New York Times: “In the dark of night, when they get what little sleep they get these days, the people running the campaigns for president have more than enough fodder for nightmares. Worse, come daybreak, they realize their worst fears may yet come true.”

“Dancing in their heads are visions of recounts, contested ballots and lawsuits. The possibility that their candidate could win the popular vote yet lose the presidency. Even the outside chance of an Electoral College tie that throws the contest to Congress.”

“Now add to that parade of potential horrors one more: a freakish two-in-one storm that could, if the more dire forecasts prove correct, warp an election two years and $2 billion in the making.”

Politico: “The presidential campaigns are publicly hitting pause on East Coast
electioneering as Hurricane Sandy spirals toward Atlantic beaches, but
privately political professionals are starting to assess important
questions about how it might affect next week’s elections up and down
the ballot.”

“In a tight election where voter turnout could be crucial, a new force is sending people door to door to try to get conservatives to the polls,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Conservative groups, most notably Americans for Prosperity, are spending millions of dollars to ensure that as many supporters as possible cast a ballot. Their efforts, echoing voter drives by unions and other Democratic-leaning groups, represent a new X-factor in the presidential race. Many of the groups barely existed in 2008 and until now had largely focused their spending on television ads.”

Brad Phillips compiles the list.

Andrew Sullivan notes that if Virginia, Florida and North Carolina flip back to the GOP from President Obama this November, Mitt Romney will have won every state in the old Confederacy.

“I think America is currently in a Cold Civil War. The parties, of course, have switched sides since the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The party of the Union and Lincoln is now the Democratic party. The party of the Confederacy is now the GOP. And racial polarization is at record levels, with whites entirely responsible for reversing Obama’s 2008 inroads into the old Confederacy in three Southern states. You only have to look at the electoral map in 1992 and 1996, when Clinton won, to see how the consolidation of a Confederacy-based GOP and a Union-based Democratic party has intensified – and now even more under a black president from, ahem, Illinois.”

The Detroit Free Press reports Mitt Romney’s new ad in Ohio is an attempt to turn the auto bailout against President Obama in a state that could make or break Romney’s presidential hopes.

Think Progress says the ad contains “four myths.”

It’s also a fairly clear indication — despite surrogates claiming Romney is now leading in Ohio — that he’s more likely running behind as the polling averages show.

[Read more…]

An Associated Press analysis finds President Obama “is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney’s attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio.”

“While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues
to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without
Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in
nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key
states now leaning Obama’s way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.”

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Romney 47%, Obama 47% (Pharos)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Cincinnati Enquirer)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

Minnesota: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Minneapolis Star Tribune)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pharos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Priorities USA Action)

“I believe right now we are currently ahead, internals show us currently ahead. I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio, and you know i haven’t been saying this. I now believe it is going to happen.”

— Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), in an interview on Meet the Press.

“On the heels of a sex scandal involving a female patient, another woman has acknowledged having a sexual relationship with physician and Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) while she was under his medical care,” the Chattanooga Times Free Press reports.

“The second woman described DesJarlais as ‘the nicest guy’ and said he cooked dinner for her at their first get-together in 2000. But she also said they smoked marijuana during their relationship and remembered DesJarlais prescribing her pain medication on dates at his home.”

Said the woman: “His biggest thing that’s completely unethical is him just picking up women while he’s a doctor. I mean, seriously, that’s his big no-no… He’s just a hound.”

Mark Blumenthal: “The overall standings produced by the aggregation of all of the public polls in the battleground states have been essentially unchanged for nearly three weeks. Although the margins have closed since the first debate and remain very close, Obama holds advantages of 2 percentage points or better in four states — Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin — that would combine with those favoring him by larger margins to give him 277 electoral votes, 7 more than needed for victory.”

Washington Post: “President Obama remains at least an even bet to win reelection. Democrats are favored to hold on to the Senate — an outcome few prognosticators envisioned at the beginning of the year. And yet, with a little more than a week to go, the party holds almost no chance of winning back the House.”

“Analysts cite several factors why the Democrats haven’t been able to
take advantage. First was a redistricting process that made some
Republicans virtually impervious to a challenge and re-election more
difficult for about 10 Democrats. A few Democratic incumbents have
stumbled in their first competitive races in years. And Republicans have
leveraged their majority into a fund-raising operation that has
out-muscled the Democrats.”

A new Omaha World Herald poll in Nebraska finds Deb Fischer (R) with a three-point lead over former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 45%.

The findings confirm a recent Pharos Research Group survey that showed Fischer ahead by about 2.5 points.

The Des Moines Register endorsed Mitt Romney for president.

“Voters should give Mitt Romney a chance to correct the nation’s fiscal course and to implode the partisan gridlock that has shackled Washington and the rest of America — with the understanding that he would face the same assessment in four years if he does not succeed.”

The newspaper reported earlier this week President Obama wouldn’t speak to editors on-the-record, a position later reversed by the White House.