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The Luckiest Politician Ever?

September 20, 2012 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Matt Latimer: “Napoleon Bonaparte reportedly said that he’d rather have a lucky general than a good one. That’s how Democrats are feeling these days about their president. Somewhere Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush are cursing the fates. What’s a guy got to do these days to lose an election?”
 
“It’s amazing when you consider it. For the last three years millions have been spent on campaign commercials, countless thousands have been devoted to campaign consultants and pollsters, many hundreds of people have been gathered in focus groups across the country to tell candidates what to say, and think, and even how to dress. And yet this election may simply come down to pure dumb luck. Historians one day may be asked to contemplate whether, in fact, Barack Obama is the luckiest person in American political history.”

More Moderate Mitt

September 20, 2012 at 10:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Not only did Mitt Romney back down from his famous 47% remarks, First Read notes “he also softened his tone on health care, immigration, and gay rights.”

“Last night was the candidate many of us expected to start seeing in June or July, not in September — it was the Romney of 2004. And on health care, we have seen Romney make moderate-sounding remarks on the subject, but then he’s had to walk them back after receiving criticism from conservatives. That’s the thing to watch today: Will we see any conservative blowback about Romney’s comments last night? Or will conservatives cut him slack for the first time this campaign because he’s on the ropes? We know the campaign is exhausted from litigating every little thing with their conservative critics, especially since it believes it’s running a more ideologically conservative campaign than any Republican in a generation.”

Wall Street Journal: “Romney Softens Tone at Univision Forum.”

Obama and Romney on 60 Minutes

September 20, 2012 at 10:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama and Mitt Romney “will get the 60 Minutes treatment
this Sunday in separate interviews with different correspondents,” USA Today writes.


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Media Caricatures of Mitt Romney

September 20, 2012 at 9:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Smart Politics review of broadcast media coverage of the 2012 campaign finds Mitt Romney “has been accused of being several wealthy fictional characters, from cartoons and comic strips (Scrooge McDuck, Richie Rich, Mr. Burns, Daddy Warbucks), classic British literature (Ebenezer Scrooge), film (Mr. Potter, Gordon Gekko), and even a board game (The Monopoly Man).”

McCain Defends Romney Over Comment

September 20, 2012 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. John McCain compared a comment he made during his 2008 presidential bid to Mitt Romney’s 47% remark caught on hidden video, “which is similarly drawing heavy Democratic flak,” CNN reports.

Said McCain: “I don’t know if you remember when I said the fundamentals of the economy are strong even though we’re in a fiscal crisis – oh my god!”

Quote of the Day

September 20, 2012 at 7:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“My campaign is about the 100 percent of America,”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, backing off his statement from earlier this year that he wouldn’t contend for the support of the 47% of Americans who don’t pay income taxes.

Ohio Miners Lost Pay for Romney Visit

September 20, 2012 at 7:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney’s campaign is airing two ads in Ohio “that include footage of the coal miners who lost pay because he campaigned at their mine,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.

“The footage is from Romney’s Aug. 14 campaign stop at the Century Mine in Beallsville, Ohio, owned by a subsidiary of Murray Energy Corp. It was later learned that the miners on stage were ordered out of the mine because of Romney’s campaign stop and were not paid for the portion of their shift that was canceled by the event.”

Obama on Redistribution of Wealth

September 20, 2012 at 7:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney this week has jumped on a 14-year-old clip of Barack Obama speaking about “redistribution” of wealth at a 1998 conference in Chicago.

However, NBC News “has obtained the entirety of the relevant remarks, which includes additional comments by Obama that weren’t included in the video circulated by Republicans. That omission features additional words of praise for ‘competition’ and the ‘marketplace’ by the then-state senator.”

Obama, from the whole clip: “I think the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody’s got a shot. How do we pool resources at the same time as we decentralize delivery systems in ways that both foster competition, can work in the marketplace, and can foster innovation at the local level and can be tailored to particular communities.”

Maggie Haberman: “It’s a bit different than when the first sentence is isolated. Obama was
making two parallel pitches, for market competition and pooled
resources, in a fashion similar to how he has at other points in his
career… That line is one Obama almost certainly wishes he could get back – but it’s also why video archives of him talking about redistribution is unlikely to surprise swaths of voters.”

Fifth of All Voters Could Change Their Mind

September 20, 2012 at 7:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC News poll finds that 22% of register voters can still be persuaded to change their vote for president before Election Day.

The figure includes essentially equal numbers of President Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s supporters.

Will Flood of New Money Change the Race?

September 20, 2012 at 7:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

National Journal looks at the final rush of cash into the presidential race, enabling Mitt Romney’s campaign and his supporters “to blitz the nation’s airwaves” in support of the Republican candidate.

“That’s a new wrinkle in a race that has seen Romney outspent by Obama in most swing states. Though Romney has raised more cash overall than Obama, some was for party committees and much of the money he raised for his own campaign was designated for the general election. That meant it could not be spent until he officially became the nominee last month.”

“That coming financial flood is a source of concern among Democrats, who privately acknowledge that the money is an unknown factor in a race many them otherwise feel confident about. But Republicans also concede that additional millions spent on TV advertising could fail to reach voters already sick of politics and certain in their opinion of both candidates.”

Poll Gives Brown the Edge in Massachusetts

September 20, 2012 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Boston Herald/UMass-Lowell poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) leading Elizabeth Warren by four points in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 49% to 45%.

Four previous polls this week all showed Warren with the lead.

Pawlenty Becomes a Lobbyist

September 20, 2012 at 6:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Tim Pawlenty “has been chosen as the new head of The Financial Services Roundtable, a lobbying group, Politico reports.

“The group lobbies on behalf of large banks, insurance companies and other major players in the world of finance. The decision is expected to be announced Thursday morning.”

Negotiations to Avert Fiscal Cliff Heat Up

September 20, 2012 at 6:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Leaders on both sides of the dome, in both parties, are meeting with key Obama administration officials… quietly mulling different legislative strategies to avoid massive tax hikes on all Americans. At the same time, lawmakers are beginning to carve out positions for their parties for what will become a months-long rhetorical and legislative war leading up to a series of year-end deadlines.”

Voters React Negatively to Romney’s 47% Remarks

September 19, 2012 at 6:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably after an excerpt of the now famous hidden camera video was shown to them online. In addition, 59% said they felt Romney unfairly dismissed almost half of Americans as victims.

A Gallup poll also finds Americans had a more negative than positive immediate reaction Romney’s comments with 36% saying they make them less likely to vote for him, 20% saying the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won’t make a difference.

Latest Swing State Polls

September 19, 2012 at 6:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the today’s swing state polls, updated as needed throughout the day:

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll of twelve swing states shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by just two points, 48% to 46%

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Fox News)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Fox News)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (CNN/ORC)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call/Muhlenberg)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Fox News)

Wisconsin:Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT)

Wisconsin: Obama 54%, Romney 40% (Marquette Law School)

Time for a Romney Checkers Speech?

September 19, 2012 at 3:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

It worked for Richard Nixon.

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

September 19, 2012 at 3:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On Monday mornings when I get up, I get up about 4:30 to catch a flight to come back up here. And I’ve noticed that I have an attitude problem, I don’t want to come anymore. And the reason I don’t want come anymore is because we’re not doing anything to address the real problems that are in front of our country.”

— Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), quoted by ABC News on the Senate floor.

Brown Refuses to Say Whether He Still Supports Romney

September 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) refused to say whether he still supports Mitt Romney for president, The Hill reports, just a day after he distanced himself from Romney’s now famous “47 percent” remarks.

However, a spokesman later told BuzzFeed that Brown does support Romney.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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