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Reaction to the Vice Presidential Debate

October 11, 2012 at 10:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan was one of the best debates I can remember. It was a great service to all Americans.

Biden had the primary goal of firing up Democrats after President Obama’s lackluster performance last week. He did that and more. He literally responded to every single assertion of Ryan’s and didn’t let a single thing go unchallenged. Democrats have to be very happy.

Biden was especially strong on foreign policy but one of his best moments was taking Ryan to task for criticizing the Obama administration’s economic stimulus package while at the same time asking for stimulus funds for his own congressional district.

Ryan’s goal was to build on Romney’s strong performance last week and continue to reassure undecided voters. In the end, however, he found his toughest opponent wasn’t Biden, it was his own record and the Romney campaign platform. He had trouble playing defense under Biden’s withering attacks. Ryan was exceptionally weak on the proposed Romney tax plan — “not mathematically possible”, according to Biden — while once again refusing to give specifics.

In terms of style, Ryan didn’t take kindly to being interrupted. It was almost as if Biden was coached to interrupt him.

Biden was more prepared, more experienced and the clear winner.

Finally, Martha Raddatz was a wonderfully effective moderator. She continuously pushed for specifics and forced followups to nonsense. She should be commended by both campaigns.

The Vice Presidential Debate

October 11, 2012 at 8:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The vice presidential debate starts at 9 p.m. ET and will be streamed live on YouTube.

Wonk Wire has some good pre-debate commentary.

Please leave your own reactions in the comments.

Brown-Warren Pact Unravels

October 11, 2012 at 8:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Independent political groups are finding ways around the pledge by Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) to keep outside money out of their hard-fought U.S. Senate campaign, Bloomberg reports.

“The League of Conservation Voters, Americans for Tax Reform and Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies have spent more than $1 million on robo-calls, direct mail and door-to-door canvassing in the last three weeks trying to influence what political strategists say is a pivotal race in the fight for control of the chamber.”


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Latest Swing State Polls

October 11, 2012 at 7:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 44% (Mason-Dixon)

Michigan: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Gravis)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Suffolk)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Gravis)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)

King Violated Debate Rules

October 11, 2012 at 4:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

When Rep. Steve King (R) debated Christie Vilsack (D) earlier this week video footage shows he brought notes with him, Politico reports.

“In footage of the debate (at about 9:30) King opens his hand and there are handwritten notes on it. The debate rules said neither candidate was allowed to bring notes.”

Ryan Wants to be Called “Mister” Not “Congressman”

October 11, 2012 at 4:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

When Paul Ryan and Joe Biden face off at their debate tonight, “the form of address the vice president is supposed to use with his opponent is “mister” instead of “congressman,” Politico reports.

“The form of address is part of the detailed memorandum of understanding between the two camps, according to the sources familiar with the document. Such MOUs detail specifics ranging from how footage of the debates can be used to podium placement, and so forth.”

Tester Trails in Montana

October 11, 2012 at 3:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Montana State University poll shows Denny Rehberg (R) just ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) by three points, 43% to 40%, with Libertarian Dan Cox way back at 6%.

Why is Obama Over Performing in Ohio?

October 11, 2012 at 3:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin tells Greg Sargent that his polling shows that views of Mitt Romney are more fixed in the battleground states than nationally.

Said Garin: “In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney… All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.”

Warren Opens Up Lead in Massachusetts

October 11, 2012 at 2:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Elizabeth Warren (D) leading Sen. Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 50% to 44%.

Key finding: “The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win
this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have
control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control.
Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the
crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.”

Latest National Polls

October 11, 2012 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest national polls of the presidential race:

Gallup: Romney 48%, Obama 47%

IBD/TIPP: Romney 47%, Obama 46%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Romney 47%

Reuters/Ipsos: Romney 47%, Obama 44%

UPI/CVoter: Romney 49%, Obama 46%

Adult Film Industry Favors Obama

October 11, 2012 at 2:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A XBIZ survey of those working in the adult film industry finds the vast majority support President Obama over Mitt Romney, 68% to 13%, with another 14% saying they wanted “someone else.”

Romney Says Nobody Dies for Lack of Health Insurance

October 11, 2012 at 1:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney, who has pledged to repeal Obamacare, told the Columbus Dispatch that people without health insurance don’t have to worry about dying as a result.

Said Romney: “We don’t have people that become ill, who die in their apartment because they don’t have insurance.”

However, Reuters reported earlier this year that more than 26,000 working-age adults die prematurely in the United States each year because they lack health insurance.

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 11, 2012 at 12:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You ever see me rope-a-dope?”

— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by Huffington Post, on tonight’s vice presidential debate.

Are You a Dual Screener?

October 11, 2012 at 12:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Pew Research survey finds that 11% of those who watched last week’s presidential debate – including 22% of those younger than 40 – were “dual screeners,” following coverage on a computer or mobile device at the same time as following television coverage.

How Romney Can Win Without Ohio

October 11, 2012 at 12:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mark Halperin: “Here’s the most likely path for Romney, sans Ohio: He wins the McCain states, plus Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa — losing New Hampshire and Wisconsin, along with Ohio.”

“Obviously, that means winning six of the nine battleground states, many of which still show significant deficits for the challenger, who also does not boast the same long-built ground game machinery as the incumbent. This map makes two things clear: Romney’s debate performance hasn’t solved his Electoral College problem, and/but his route to 270 is so, so much harder if he can’t win Ohio.”

Will Tonight’s Debate Even Matter?

October 11, 2012 at 11:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Marc Ambinder notes that historically vice presidential debates have rarely been game changers but notes “one caveat that occurs to me here is that technology and information consumption patterns have shifted to A-gear so much so that if the political class wants to force the public to make more of a big deal about the vice presidential ticket than they might, then perhaps a rousing debate from Ryan or Biden will shift things. But I doubt it.”

The Pressure is on Biden Tonight

October 11, 2012 at 11:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Cassidy: “A strong performance by the Vice-President won’t repair all of the damage that Obama did last week–only Obama himself can do that. But it would help to stabilize things for the Democrats, and to quell the near panic that has broken out in some quarters. Conversely, if Paul Ryan gets the better of Biden, and particularly if Biden provides the media with some sort of gaffe to feed upon, the Democrats will have to endure another week of negative headlines and self-flagellation. By the time Obama gets onstage in Hempstead next Thursday, his campaign could be in serious trouble.”

Are National or State Polls More Reliable?

October 11, 2012 at 11:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver looks at the fact that Mitt Romney is about tied — or perhaps even has a small lead — in the average of national polls right now while President Obama leads in the key swing states.

“There are some reasons to prefer national polls to state polls. First, they probably come from slightly stronger polling firms on average and they often have larger sample sizes, although there are exceptions on either side. Second, they’re more straightforward to interpret — especially if you want to derive an estimate of how the national popular vote will break down.”

“Our research suggests, however, that when the state polls and the national polls seem to tell a different story about the state of the campaign, the state polls sometimes (not always, by any means) get it right… One is just that there are more of them… So even if the typical state poll is slightly less accurate the typical national poll, the collective sum of state polls may be more worthwhile than the collective sum of national polls. Also, the state polls come from a more diverse set of polling firms, and may provide for a greater degree of independence.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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