John Fund says that many believe former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) could lose the congressional special election — assuming he wins an upcoming runoff — “to a Democrat — especially a business-oriented woman such as Colbert Busch. Her platform is pitched perfectly toward moderates: protecting retirement benefits, an expansion of engineering and science education and reducing the deficit by eliminating waste.”

Said pollster Pat Caddell: “If Sanford is the final GOP candidate he could lose a 58 percent Romney district based on his weakness with women voters over the affair he had while governor.”

The Week: Is Mark Sanford vs. Stephen Colbert’s sister political gold?

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) advanced to a runoff in the Republican contest for an open congressional seat, “taking a step toward reviving a political career that was derailed by an extramarital affair while he was governor,” The State reports.

Sanford will face either Curtis Bostic (R) or Larry Grooms (R) who are locked in a tight race for second place.

The eventual Republican candidate will square off in the May 7 general election against Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D), the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert.

A new Basswood Research poll in Arkansas finds Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) holds a 8% lead over sitting Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), 43% to 35%..

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) tops current Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 16 points, 50% to 34% among registered voters if the 2014 election were today.

A PPP poll released yesterday found Crist with a 12 point lead.

First Read calls Scott “the most endangered governor in the country as we head into next year’s midterms.”

A new Rasmussen poll finds Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) approval rating has plummeted since the November election to 35% to 54% — a stunning reversal from last August, when his approval rate was 50% to 32%.

The Week: So what happened to Ryan’s once-shining star?

“Democratic heavy-hitters — including Bill Clinton — are quietly trying to woo a new candidate to jump into the race to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, even as actress Ashley Judd is taking steps toward launching a star-studded campaign of her own,” Politico reports.

“With fears growing in some Democratic quarters over Judd’s potential candidacy, some prominent Democrats in the Bluegrass State are beginning to set their sights on 34-year-old Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of state. Among Grimes’ attributes: She lacks political baggage since she’s served barely a year in office, and she hails from a well-connected family influential in Kentucky Democratic politics. But it’s not at all certain if she’ll jump into the race.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) leads current Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 12 points in a possible 2014 match up, 52% to 40%.

Key finding: Scott’s approval numbers have seen no improvement over the last two months, even after his decision to allow Medicaid expansion in Florida. 33% of voters continue to approve of the job he’s doing to 57% who disapprove.

We’ll have another poll from Florida in the morning.