Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:
Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (InsiderAdvantage)
Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% (NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 43% (Franklin & Marshall)
“A kick in the balls.”
— A longtime Ohio Republican strategist, quoted by the CNN, characterizing President Obama’s advantage on the auto bailout for the Romney campaign.
The Gallup tracking poll now shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by six points, 50% to 44%.
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Minnesota Lt. Gov. Yvonne Prettner Solon (D) “jumped from a plane at 12,500 feet and landed by parachute on the Capitol lawn Tuesday as part of an event staged to show support for soldiers and their families. The plunge included a 120 miles per hour free fall through a clear blue sky,” the AP reports.
John Sides looks at new research which finds “the errors of the robo-polls were much lower when a live-interviewer poll had already been conducted in a particular state. In other words, the robo-polls were more accurate when there was a previous live-interviewer poll that may have served as a benchmark.”
From the paper: “Pollsters know their results are being compared to the results of prior polls, and polls created for public consumption have incentives to ensure that their results are roughly consistent with the narrative being told in the press if they want to garner public attention. Pollsters also have further financial incentives to get it right which may make them leery of ignoring the information contained in other polls…”
“Beyond the implications for interpreting IVR polls, the larger point here is that if polls take cues from one another, then the hundreds of polls being reported are not really as informative as the number of polls would imply.”
An instructive video clip shows Joe Biden previewing his vice presidential debate with Sarah Palin in 2008.
Claude Fischer: “A pair of surveys asked Americans a more concrete question: in 1960,
whether they would be ‘displeased’ if their child married someone
outside their political party, and, in 2010, would be ‘upset’ if their
child married someone of the other party. In 1960, about 5 percent of
Americans expressed a negative reaction to party intermarriage; in 2010,
about 40 percent did (Republicans about 50 percent, Democrats about 30
percent).”
Just published: Ike’s Bluff: President Eisenhower’s Secret Battle to Save the World by Evan Thomas.
President Obama is dramatically outspending Mitt Romney on television ads in both Ohio and Florida, the Huffington Post reports.
“A review of political ad contracts with broadcast television stations in the top five media markets in Florida — Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and West Palm Beach — and the top three markets in Ohio — Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus — show Obama’s campaign running 10,000 more ads than Romney’s campaign from the beginning of August through the middle of September.”
With Mitt Romney running significantly behind President Obama in recent Ohio polls, Nate Silver looks at the most-likely scenarios for Romney to win the election without the Buckeye state.
“So one sign that Mr. Romney’s team is preparing a ‘Plan B’ to win the election without Ohio would be if they begin to place more emphasis on Iowa and Nevada. They would then have to hope that a shift in the national environment would carry states like Virginia and Florida back into their column.”
“It isn’t a great plan. But when you’re the Republican candidate and are down outside the margin of error in Ohio with six weeks to go, you don’t have any great plans.”
The Week: “Some Republicans are having doubts as Romney’s campaign hits a rough patch, with a few wondering whether another candidate might have had a better shot.”
With Rep. Todd Akin (R) officially staying in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) launched a new ad just hammering him.
First Read: “It’s an interesting tactic by the McCaskill campaign to NOT use Akin’s voice in its first big hit. Perhaps they don’t want to OVER-play it early (and save that if for some reason they are struggling to put him away in October). We only ask because the first hit, using an announcer to read Akin’s quotes rather than HEARING Akin, struck us as less effective.”
President Obama told the Des Moines Register that if he’s fortunate enough to win a second term, his re-election will send a message to Republicans that Americans want them to follow his agenda.
Said Obama: “What I think most Iowans certainly believe is that if the majority of the American people have said, ‘This is the direction we need to go,’ and the Republicans in Congress say, ‘No, we’re going to go in the exact opposite direction,’ that’s probably not going to leave them to keep that majority too long.”
President Obama “has blocked out three days to prepare for the October debates, but with the constant pressures that come with one of the world’s most important jobs, aides worry he may not get enough practice at the podium,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
His “debate retreat” is scheduled to start Sunday and “includes time for the daily battery of presidential meetings, leaving room for three afternoon debate sessions — if no crises flare up. Obama has already canceled some debate preparation because of events in the Middle East.”
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney “has worked on his strategy for weeks, prepping at his home in New Hampshire and at his Boston headquarters, but also squeezing in time as he travels.”
Mitt Romney released a new ad to counter the fallout from his infamous 47% comments caught on hidden camera video, saying “President Obama and I both care about poor and middle-class families.”
First Read: “Folks, this is an admission that the “47%” remarks – and the Obama camp’s new TV ads on them — have done real damage. Realize: Candidate-to-camera ads are typically when all else is failing and the bonds of trust with the voters are fraying.”
Justin Lamar Sternad (D), whose failed congressional campaign became the subject of a federal grand-jury investigation, has told the FBI that Rep. David Rivera (R-FL) was secretly behind his run for office, the Miami Herald reports.
Sternad’s account to federal authorities supports what two campaign vendors said, that the congressman was the driver behind a botched attempt to plant a candidate in the district’s congressional primary.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 54% of Americans have unfavorable views of Mitt Romney’s comments — caught on film at a fundraiser — regarding the “47 percent” of people who pay not federal income taxes and simply would not vote for him. Just 32% saw them favorable.
In addtiion, 61% of all Americans “express negative views of how Romney is running his campaign. That number is up significantly from July — the near-certain result of the much-publicized comments by Romney.”
Meanwhile, Nate Silver says President Obama’s odds of winning the election, according to his forecast model, have increased by 7% — 80% chance of winning the Electoral College from 73% — since the hidden camera video of Romney making his comments came out.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds 72% of Americans think President Obama’s health care law will go fully into effect with some changes, ranging from minor to major alterations.
Just 12% say they expect the Affordable Care Act to be repealed completely.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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