“It could be better. It could always be better. I haven’t had that much communication.”
— Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), quoted by The Hill, responding to a question about President Obama’s outreach to lawmakers.
Most Conservative Supreme Court?
Nate Silver notes that according to one measure, the current Supreme Court may be the most conservative in the modern era.
“Mr.
Martin and Mr. Quinn rate the current court (based on data up through
late 2010) as the most conservative in their database based on the
positioning of the median justice, the previous high having come in the
early 1950s. Although Justice Kennedy is not extraordinarily
conservative relative to all other justices who have served on the
court, he is very conservative by the standards of the median justice,
who has typically been more of a true moderate.”
“The Martin-Quinn
method suggests that there has been some overall rightward drift among
almost all members of the court, including the more liberal justices,
since Chief Justice Roberts took over for Chief Justice William H.
Rehnquist. Although Chief Justice Roberts is not especially more
conservative than Chief Justice Rehnquist under their system, chief
justices can sometimes exert an overall pull on the court based on the
way they manage it, and this may be one of those cases.”
Wisconsin Split Over Recall of Walker
A new NBC News-Marist Poll in Wisconsin shows voters split over the recall of Gov. Scott Walker (R) with 46% showing support for him but 48% saying they’ll vote for the eventual Democratic candidate who’ll face him.
Walker’s approval rate is also divided at 48% to 48%.
Romney Leads in Wisconsin Primary
A new NBC News-Marist Poll in Wisconsin shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum in week’s GOP primary, 40% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 8%.
“So far in all the GOP contests where there has been exit polling, Romney has won in every contest where evangelical voters have accounted for less than 50 percent of the electorate. And he has lost in every contest where that number has been higher than 50 percent. The evangelical percentage among likely Wisconsin GOP primary voters, according to the NBC/Marist poll: 41%.”
Quote of the Day
“I think I can say… no president, and I would argue in the 20th century and including now the 21st century, has had as many serious problems which are cases of first-instance laid on his table. Franklin Roosevelt faced more dire consequences, but in a bizarre way it was more straightforward.”
— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by ABC News.
Romney Way Ahead in Maryland
A new Rasmussen survey in Maryland finds Mitt Romney crushing the GOP presidential field with 45%, followed by Rick Santorum at 28%, Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul at 7%.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“In terms of me, I’ll be much more ready four years from now.”
— New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), in an interview with Oprah Winfrey, on whether he’ll run for president in 2016.
Gingrich Hits New Low
Newt Gingrich sank to a new low in the latest Gallup poll: He has just 10% support among registered Republicans.
Gingrich reached a high of 37% in mid-December in a similar survey.
Candidate Challenged Over Being an Astronaut
Jose Hernandez (D) “flew in space, but his astronaut identity is now under political fire” in his race to unseat Rep. Jeff Denham (R-CA), the Fresno Bee reports.
A Sacramento law firm is asking a judge to block Hernandez from describing himself as an “astronaut/scientist/engineer” on the June ballot because he has left NASA.
Hernandez offered a brilliant video response.
Romney’s Big Problem
Steve Benen: “It’s tempting to think every major-party frontrunner emerges from a primary process with weakened favorability numbers — intra-party contests are often bruising — but that’s just not the case. Four years ago, Obama became better liked as voters got to know him, but this year, Romney isn’t just disliked, he’s also more disliked at this point in the process than any candidate in nearly three decades.”
Quote of the Day
“There are a lot of other people out there that some of us wish had run for president — but they didn’t.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), in an interview with Matt Lewis, apparently qualifying his endorsement yesterday of Mitt Romney.
Haley Indictment Coming Soon?
Two legal experts have independently told Palmetto Public Record they expect the U.S. Department of Justice to issue an indictment against South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) on charges of tax fraud as early as this week.
When Candidates Get Desperate, They Try to Scare You
Rick Santorum’s eerie new ad “Welcome to Obamaville” isn’t the first time a candidate to tried to scare Americans into voting for him.
As Dave Weigel notes, “There’s a history here, a rich tradition of ads from candidates who predict doom if they don’t win. These candidates, being desperate, usually lose. America endures. But the ads keep coming anyway.”
Not Just Another Book by a Talk Show Host
The New York Times raves about Rachel Maddow’s new book, Drift.
Most books by political talk show hosts are nothing more than marketing tools, but this book “is much more. It is an argument — a sustained, lucid case in which points are made logically and backed by evidence and reason. What’s more, it follows one main idea through nearly a half-century… Ms. Maddow’s point is that the way we go to war has changed: that there has been an expansion of presidential power, a corresponding collapse of Congressional backbone and a diminution of public attention. She does not see this in conspiratorial terms, but she has an explanation for the step-by-step way it evolved.”
I have an author signed copy of Drift to give away to a reader. To be eligible, recommend Political Wire to your friends on Facebook (like our Facebook page) or Twitter (include @politicalwire in your tweet). I’ll pick a winner later today.
Romney Mocked Kerry for Having a Large Home
Though reports on the size of Mitt Romney’s California vacation home are frustrating for his presidential campaign, Romney made fun of Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) for the same thing in a 2004 speech.
Said Romney: “There’s a Senator from my state who wants to get elected President. I don’t know why he would want to do that, because he would have to move into a smaller house.”
Blagojevich’s Chief of Staff Sentenced
John Harris, a former chief of staff for Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich who provided crucial assistance to investigators, was sentenced “to a mere 10 days in prison by a federal judge who reserved his harshest comments instead for the former governor, suggesting he was an impossible boss and pointing out some had even questioned his mental stability,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“The sentence for John Harris was in stunning contrast to the crushing 14-year term Blagojevich began serving earlier this month in a federal prison in Colorado. In fact, Blagojevich has already spent more time in prison than Harris will.”
Forecast Suggests GOP Will Control House and Senate
Alan Abramowitz presents a House forecasting model which predicts “a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House.”
Meanwhile, the Senate forecasting model “gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.”
Wisconsin is Santorum’s Last Chance
First Read: “With Mitt Romney holding a sizable delegate lead and with more prominent Republicans (George H.W. Bush and Marco Rubio) formally endorsing the former Massachusetts governor, Tuesday’s GOP primary in Wisconsin is shaping up to be Rick Santorum’s last chance — in math and perception. If Romney wins Wisconsin, Santorum can’t stop him from getting to the magic number of 1,114 delegates, according to our math.”
“When we crunched the numbers showing that Romney would fall about 50 delegates short of the magic number, that ASSUMED Santorum would win Wisconsin, as well as pick up more delegates than he did in Louisiana. When it comes to perception, Wisconsin is Santorum’s final opportunity to convince Republicans that this race isn’t over, and a win in the Badger State would do the trick.”
However, Santorum’s campaign tells Byron York the media’s delegate counts are wrong.
