Alan Abramowitz presents a House forecasting model which predicts “a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House.”

Meanwhile, the Senate forecasting model “gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats. That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.”

First Read: “With Mitt Romney holding a sizable delegate lead and with more prominent Republicans (George H.W. Bush and Marco Rubio) formally endorsing the former Massachusetts governor, Tuesday’s GOP primary in Wisconsin is shaping up to be Rick Santorum’s last chance — in math and perception. If Romney wins Wisconsin, Santorum can’t stop him from getting to the magic number of 1,114 delegates, according to our math.”

“When we crunched the numbers showing that Romney would fall about 50 delegates short of the magic number, that ASSUMED Santorum would win Wisconsin, as well as pick up more delegates than he did in Louisiana. When it comes to perception, Wisconsin is Santorum’s final opportunity to convince Republicans that this race isn’t over, and a win in the Badger State would do the trick.”

However, Santorum’s campaign tells Byron York the media’s delegate counts are wrong.

President Obama’s re-election campaign has spent more than $135 million so far, the AP reports.

That’s about $3 million more than all his Republican challengers combined.

While Mitt Romney regularly bashes Harvard in an attempt to paint President Obama “as an ivory tower theorist out of his depth in the presidency,” Bloomberg notes Romney “owes his chief White House credential — his business career — to the school.”

“That Ivy League pedigree undercuts Romney’s appeal to many Republicans who already doubt that he shares their values. So as he heads for his party’s nomination, Romney lacerates his alma mater on the campaign trail, seeking to channel the resentments of voters soured on elite institutions… Yet by all accounts, Romney thrived at Harvard, reveling in the intellectual challenge and impressing classmates with his drive and discipline.”

Ken Herman: “You might recall that Texas Gov. Rick Perry had some trouble getting people to vote for him when he was running for president. And now that he’s not running, he is having some trouble getting people to stop voting for him for president.”

The tally: Perry got 14,321 votes before he dropped out January 19, two days before the South Carolina primary. Since bailing out, Perry’s picked up another 39,435 votes.

Newt Gingrich met secretly with Mitt Romney on Saturday but the former House speaker says he has made no deal to end his bid for the GOP nomination, the Washington Times reports.

Gingrich “did not deny the meeting, but explicitly said he hasn’t been offered a position in a potential Romney administration in exchange for dropping out. Nor, he said, is there a deal to have Mr. Romney’s big donors help retire Mr. Gingrich’s campaign debt of more than $1 million.”

Said Gingrich: “There is no agreement of any kind, and I plan to go all the way to Tampa.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel (R) by double-digits, 46% to 36%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Sen. Sherrod Brown retains his double-digit lead in the Ohio U.S. Senate race. As is the case with President Obama’s lead in the White House race, the Democratic margin is made up almost completely of the votes of women.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) opening an eight point lead over challenger Rep. Connie Mack (R), 44% to 36%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “President Obama’s surge in Florida is helping Sen. Bill Nelson’s re-election chances. Just as President Obama’s lead in the presidential race in the Sunshine State is fueled by female voters, so too is Nelson’s. He also is running better among several groups, including whites and Catholics and voters 50 to 64 years old.”

Rep. Rob Andrews (D-NJ) has spent at least $97,000 in campaign money on at least 18 trips over the past five years to California, where his daughter has been pursuing a singing and acting career, the AP reports.

“Andrews is not accused of any wrongdoing, and his campaign says that his expenditures in California were legitimate, in part because connections there have helped him raise money in other states.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) endorsed Mitt Romney tonight on Fox News.

Said Rubio: “Not only is he going to be the Republican nominee, he offers a stark contrast to this president’s record.”

Sheldon Adelson, who with his wife has given more than $15 million to Newt Gingrich’s Super PAC, said he believes Gingrich is “at the end of his line” regarding the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Jewish Journal reports.

Adelson also predicted it’s unlikely Gingrich will become a vice presidential candidate.

Gawker has photos of congressional candidate Matt Doheny (R) — who was picked as one of “the strongest GOP challengers in the country” by House Republican leaders — making out with a campaign consultant “who is not his fiance.”

Doheny’s engagement is still on, his press secretary says, and invitations go out next week for the June 30 wedding.

In advance of the GOP primary next week, Mitt Romney tried to prove his Wisconsin connections by relating a “humorous” story about his father shutting down a factory, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.

Said Romney: “One of most humorous I think relates to my father. You may remember my father, George Romney, was president of an automobile company called American Motors… They had a factory in Michigan, and they had a factory in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and another one in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. And as the president of the company he decided to close the factory in Michigan and move all the production to Wisconsin. Now later he decided to run for governor of Michigan and so you can imagine that having closed the factory and moved all the production to Wisconsin was a very sensitive issue to him, for his campaign.”

Romney recalled a parade in which a school band marching with his father’s campaign only knew the Wisconsin fight song, not the Michigan song.

He continued, while laughing: “So every time they would start playing ‘On, Wisconsin, On, Wisconsin,’ my dad’s political people would jump up and down and try to get them to stop, because they didn’t want people in Michigan to be reminded that my dad had moved production to Wisconsin.”

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll finds President Obama with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney, 54% to 43%.

Said pollster Keating Holland: “President Obama currently wins majority support among groups that have been problematic for him in the past, including men, older voters, and suburbanites. He has a solid lead among independents as well.”

Obama’s approval rating has also inched over the 50% mark for the first time since last May, when the polls were still registering the after effects of the death of Osama bin Laden.