The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Mitt Romney has opened up a six point lead over President Obama among likely voters, 51% to 45%.

It’s the first time he’s had a lead outside the survey’s margin of error.

Markos Moulitsas: “Romney’s entire advantage comes from a massive lead in the South. Now
sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly
doesn’t show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas,
Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant
states?”

“If you look at the movie, he didn’t say it. Somebody in the
audience said it and he repeated it, and I’ve talked to him about it and
he apologized and that’s it.”

— Tommy Thompson (R), quoted by the AP, on remarks by his son caught on video suggesting President Obama should go back “to Chicgao — or Kenya.”

From President Obama’s Twitter feed:

Taegan Goddard: “He kept Romney on the defensive and came prepared … It was devastatingly effective.” OFA.BO/Qt2KiR #ObamaWinsDebate

— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) October 17, 2012

Jimmy Kimmel asks people on the street who won last night’s presidential debate — several hours before it even took place.

[Read more…]

Major Garrett: “What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Plouffe said Obama remains strong in all four states but would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter contact analytics, saying only Obama has ‘significant leads’ in all four.”

“It is uncharacteristic of team Obama to concede any terrain but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, though not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.”

Matt Lauer asked Paul Ryan who would win the Wisconsin vs. Ohio State football game on November 17, Yahoo reports.

Lauer: “I would like you to tell the people of Ohio who’s going to win that game.”

Ryan: “They spoiled us last year. We spoiled them the year before–Jane and I were at that game. It really depends on who has the better record is going to lose, because that’s what happens.”

Lauer: “Who’s going to win the game, congressman? Tell the people of Ohio who’s going to win the game.”

Ryan: “It always depends on who’s got the better record. It’s up in Camp Randall [Stadium] this year. It’s up in Madison this year. Home field advantage works well. But if we’re doing better, they’ll beat us, and if they have a better record, then we’ll beat them. That’s always how it goes between the Badgers and the Buckeyes. How’s that for an answer?”

Lauer: “It’s a terrible answer. It’s OK, I’m out of time–you’re lucky.”

Religion News Service: “The Billy Graham Evangelistic Association removed language labeling Mormonism a ‘cult’ from its website after the famed preacher met with Republican nominee Mitt Romney last week and pledged to help his presidential campaign.”

David Challian: “President Obama has not stepped foot in the state since his convention drew to a close nearly six weeks ago. After he touches down in Iowa and New Hampshire this week, every other battleground state will have gotten some in-person Obama post-convention love except for the Tar Heel state.”

Dick Morris: “This debate goes to Romney. It seals his momentum and will lead to a big win.”

First Read: “The answer comes down to this: Have the past two weeks been about Romney getting a second look from voters and seeing a different Romney than has been portrayed over the past year? Or have the past two weeks been about Democrats and swing voters being disappointed in Obama’s first debate performance? If it’s the former, you could argue that the debate didn’t change too much in the race. If it’s the latter, you could argue that it did. Once again, we’ll be paying attention to the polls that come out next week.”

Harry Enten: “I’m not expecting much, if any, movement from this debate. If it does
occur, it will be favorable towards President Obama. He’ll take that, in
this tight race, as every little bit counts. But remember that
predictions about post-debate movements are not perfect and that any
movements or lack thereof could be erased by next week‘s debate.”

“No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great
nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we
stand for.”

— President Obama, commenting on the attacks on the U.S. consulate in Libya on September 12, 2012.

Mitt Romney insisted in last night’s debate Obama didn’t portray it as a terrorist attack.

First Read: “In fact, almost all of the exchanges drove this point home: These candidates really don’t like each other. The two men constantly interrupted each other; they circled each other like prizefighters in the boxing ring; and they also even got into each other’s faces. Overall, last night showed that both Obama and Romney are fighters, but they also demonstrated the worst stereotype of why so many people hate politics. It is also worth asking if a debate that featured two VERY alpha-male performances end up turning off swing voting women who would prefer a tad more comity in their politics and less cable-TV/talk radio style bravado. And where was the empathy? From the get-go, it was clear neither candidate knew how to connect with the questioners very well.”

Washington Post:
“At least some people closely watching the contest — those betting
money on the election’s outcome — did offer a kind of consensus view:
President Obama soundly beat expectations in his second contest against
Gov. Mitt Romney… The votes on well-known political betting site
Intrade.com reflected a jump in the president’s chances from 61.7
percent just before the debate to 64.1 percent shortly afterward.
Similar jumps could be seen in other markets, too. At the betting site
Betfair.com, the president’s chances jumped 2.7 percentage points over
that period, and on the Iowa Electronic Markets, run out of the
University of Iowa, his chances were up about 2.4 percentage points in
that timeframe.” 

A new Sienna poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Linda McMahon (R) for U.S. Senate by just two points, 46% to 44%.

Said pollster Don Levy: “Connecticut residents now have high negatives towards both McMahon and Murphy with over one in ten viewing both candidates unfavorably. Murphy is underperforming relative to the top of his ticket while McMahon has more support among most groups than does Romney. This one may be decided on who turns out and how the last minute deciders feel as they walk into the polls on November 6th.”

In the presidential race, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 15 points, 53% to 38%.

Despite all the fireworks over taxes, oil and Libya, ABC News says the most buzz-worthy social media moment of last night’s presidential debate was Mitt Romney’s comment about “binders full of women.”

“The inadvertently funny comment came in response to a question about pay equity for women… Romney was explaining that as the governor of Massachusetts searching for qualified women to fill cabinet posts, women’s groups brought him ‘binders full of women’ who were good candidates.”

The phrase now has a hilarious Tumblr account, Facebook page and Twitter handle.

More seriously, David Bernstein reports Romney’s account of the “binders full of women” wasn’t even accurate.

The instant polls all found Obama won last night’s presidential debate: CBS News had Obama beating Romney 37% to 30%, CNN found Obama won 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%.

Nate Silver cautions: “The relationship between the quick-reaction polls and their eventual effect on the horse-race polls has historically been very modest, and has sometimes even run in the opposite direction of what the initial polls suggested.”

Here are some other reactions:

Andrew Sullivan: “To my mind, Obama dominated Romney tonight in every single way: in
substance, manner, style, and personal appeal. He came back like a
lethal, but restrained predator.”

Joshua Green: “I thought Mitt Romney’s second debate was nearly as bad as Barack Obama’s first debate.”

Alex Pareene: “Obama clearly prepared for his Libya response. Romney makes a dumb
mistake: Obama says he spoke in the Rose Garden after the attack and
called it an act of terror. Romney says “no you didn’t.” Obama says “get
the transcript.” Crowley says ‘he did.’ The audience applauds Crowley live fact-checking Romney. Like, twice. They applaud twice. Romney
stutters through the rest of his response, and it doesn’t matter what he
says: He just got fucking destroyed. By the audience, basically.”

Rick Klein: “Not until an exchange on Libya — close on the heels of a
petty-but-buzzy attack on pension size — did the president hit a stride
in tonight’s debate… The president took a subject that should have been a sore spot and
turned it around. He was having a decent debate to that point, but that
exchange — including his call for a fact-check on when he labeled
Benghazi a terrorist attack — made it something more than that, the
victory his campaign desperately needed.”

Greg Sargent: “This race will still be the dead heat tomorrow that it was yesterday,
but Obama made big strides towards turning things around tonight.”

Joe Klein: “Most political debates are like this. There aren’t very many clean wins
or losses. The candidates work on the audiences they’ve targeted-women
for Obama; small business for Romney-and few minds are changed. The
number of minds that are changeable at this point in this race is so
miniscule that I can’t guess which candidate did better at influencing
the truly undecided-which is why I can’t say who won.”

Mike Allen: “Last night was Governor Romney’s last, best chance, because the next
debate is foreign policy, where President Obama is strong. But at the
town-hall debate, Romney discovered one of the basic precepts of
military science: You only get one sneak attack! We now have a tight,
three-week race that either man could win, depending on events and the
subtle electoral ecology of Ohio and Virginia. But at least in obvious
rewards, Obama got a ton more out of last night than Romney did.”

If President Obama had done this well in the first debate, most would have already written off Mitt Romney. Obama won the debate decisively.

The president had a simple formula: Defend and explain his record while insisting that Romney wasn’t being truthful. He kept Romney on the defensive and came prepared with counter-punches to nearly every topic. It was devastatingly effective.

The memorandum of understanding setting the rules for the debate — and the town hall format itself — went out the window pretty quickly. The debate turned confrontational within the first 20 minutes which probably pleased partisans. Both sides saw fire in their candidate. But it’s more likely that undecided voters didn’t like the confrontation at all.

In particular, Romney doesn’t do testy well. He made a big mistake trying to roll over the moderator. He got away with it in the first debate but he looked mean tonight. His obsession with the rules also came off as petty.

Romney was most effective when pointing out what Obama promised and what actually happened over the last four years. He scored many points But he lost most of them by not knowing his facts on what President Obama said the morning after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. Obama acted like a president in the exchange while Romney was much less. It was Romney’s Gerald Ford moment.

Candy Crowley was an excellent moderator. She kept what could have been an unruly event on topic and very informative.