Jonathan Chait: “Everybody knows what happens in January. Both sides ought to be able to anticipate it and make the deal they could make then now. Business types have therefore assumed a December deal would happen. If this was a business deal between two rational people, that’s what would happen.”

“But we are not dealing with rational people here. We are dealing with House Republicans. As Republican Tom Cole gently put it, by way of describing his colleagues’ implacable hatred of taxes, ‘It’s who they are. It’s the air they breathe. It’s what the Republican electorate produces.'”

“If Boehner strikes a deal before January, Republicans will suspect he gave away revenue he could have fought for. But if he refuses, the House Republicans will see for themselves what happens. The revenue will go away on its own, over Boehner’s objections. All Obama has to do is continue to make clear he will not under any circumstances extend any tax cuts on income over $250,000 a year. Then he has nearly all the revenue he needs, and he can offer Republicans a deal they would never walk away from. They might try to get that deal in December, but January remains the best bet.”

The Washington Post reports that Grover Norquist says his group would not consider a vote for Speaker John Boehner’s “Plan B” a violation of the anti-tax pledge many Republican members of Congress have signed — even though it effectively raises taxes on households with an income of more than $1 million.

House Speaker John Boehner unveiled his “Plan B” to avoid the fiscal cliff — legislation that would raise tax rates on those earning more than $1 million but keep rates the same for everyone else — and scheduled a vote for tomorrow.

First Read: “There are three reasons why Plan B — if it’s a serious effort — seems so puzzling. One… the two sides are thisclose in getting a deal done… Two, if we go over the fiscal cliff (and time is running out, folks), Republicans might not realize the extent to which President Obama will own the bully pulpit in January. After all, there’s a certain inaugural address on Jan. 21, as well as the State of the Union. And three, are enough House Republicans really going to cast a tough vote — raising taxes — without getting any spending cuts or resolution on the sequester in return? And are they going to cast a vote for legislation that breaks a longstanding pledge on taxes that has zero chance of becoming law simply to give Boehner leverage? If Boehner and leadership do pull this off and convince their rank-and-file to vote on legislation that is designed just to give Boehner leverage, it would be quite the political feat.”

Rick Klein: “Boehner’s gambit is either a brilliant technique aimed at strengthening
his negotiating position, or a foolhardy scheme that will demonstrate
divisions in his own caucus. He’s putting his members on record (or, at
least, trying to) in favor of tax rates going up for high-income earners
— precisely the kind of vote almost every Republican came to Congress
to try to avoid. If he gets it, he shows his caucus’ resolve in the face
of pressure from the White House. If he doesn’t, Plan A options will be
scrambled, perhaps too late to leave time for Plan C.”

Wonk Wire: Nearing the fiscal cliff end game.