Elizabeth Warren, the likely Democratic challenger to Sen. Scott Brown
(R-MA), raised over $1 million in just 24 hours during their first
“money bomb” of the election, The Hotline reports.

Not so fast:
“There aren’t many candidates who can muster that kind of support in a
money bomb. One of them, though, is Warren’s opponent: Almost exactly
two years ago, when Republicans started to think they had a real shot at
winning the seat, Sen. Scott Brown raised more than $1 million a day,
three days in a row.”

With Rick Perry now out of the race, the four candidates remaining on the stage tonight had a chance to really engage with one another at the last debate before the South Carolina presidential primary.

Newt Gingrich won the night on the first question, when he trained his fire on the media and debate moderator John King for focusing on claims by his ex-wife that Gingrich had requested an “open marriage.” He denied the allegations and received multiple standing ovations during the exchange. No other moment from the night was nearly as memorable. The rest of Gingrich’s night came in around par, but those first moments may be all he needed to capture the headlines and continue his recent momentum.

Rick Santorum also did well, landing a number of substantive punches on Mitt Romney for his Massachusetts health care program, as well as on Gingrich for his tenure as Speaker of the House. Santorum’s campaign has clearly done an effective job on their opposition research. He also gave some of the most detailed answers on policy questions and did his best to create some space between his positions and those of his opponents.

Romney once again had an average performance and stumbled when asked about releasing his federal income tax returns, which he finally committed to releasing in April. After two less-than-stellar debates in a row, it’s unclear whether he can hold on to his narrowing lead in South Carolina.

Ron Paul had great difficulty getting time in the debate and the other three candidates generally declined to engage him. At times his responses seemed to ramble.

Nate Silver doesn’t think Rick Perry’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich in
the Republican presidential primary will give Gingrich a direct boost,
but that’s not to say it doesn’t help advance the emerging “Newt-mentum”
narrative.

“Among these voters, second-place support was about
evenly divided among three candidates: Mr. Gingrich was listed by 22
percent of Mr. Perry’s supporters as their second choice, but Rick
Santorum and Mitt Romney were each listed as the second choice by 20
percent of Mr. Perry’s voters… And some of the ground that Mr.
Gingrich has gained there since Monday night’s debate has come at Mr.
Perry’s expense, so the voters who were most amenable to switching to
Mr. Gingrich may already have done so… Instead, the main way this may
aid Mr. Gingrich is by generating a strong headline for his campaign and
entrenching the sense among the news media that he has the momentum in
the race. That could be helpful to Mr. Gingrich given the complex story
lines of the past few days.”

Jonathan Chait: “Romney’s run of luck during the Republican nominating race is beginning to defy belief. Begin with the fact that Rick Santorum turns out to have won the Iowa caucuses. Finding this out now is approximately 0.001 percent as valuable as having it announced the night of the caucuses. There was an old Fed Ex commercial depicting an aging pool cleaner suddenly discovering a 20-year-old acceptance letter from Harvard he had never received, and imagining the life he could have had. That man is Santorum. He has to wonder if the Iowa vote counters were gay.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina — based on just one night of phone calls — shows Newt Gingrich leading Mitt Romney, 34% to 28%, followed by Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5% and Buddy Roemer at 3%.

Key finding: “This is not a case of Romney imploding.  His support has been pretty
steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But
Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting
from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters
moving into his camp.”

It’s the first of what will be three nights of tracking. PPP released the poll given Perry’s drop out from the race. It will be interesting to see how tonight’s debate and the interview with Gingrich’s ex-wife impact the results.

Mitt Romney’s campaign has attacked reports “on the candidate’s offshore investments, saying his holdings in the Cayman Islands and elsewhere have no effect on the amount he pays in U.S. taxes,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“But the campaign’s assertions may be wrong or misleading. Tax experts said some of the offshore holdings are likely intended to help Mr. Romney avoid paying an obscure but hefty tax of as much as 35% on some of those investments, held in a tax-deferred retirement account.”

Marianne Gingrich told ABC News that when her husband Newt “admitted to a six-year affair with a congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista.”

Said Marianne: “And I just stared at him and he said, ‘Callista doesn’t care what I do.’ He wanted an open marriage and I refused.”

The former Mrs. Gingrich says Newt began to plan a run for President at the time of the divorce and told her that Callista “was going to help him become President.”

Two new polls in South Carolina — both conducted after Monday’s presidential debate — show a very tight Republican primary race.

American Research Group: Newt Gingrich 33%, Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.

InsiderAdvantage: Newt Gingrich 32%, Mitt Romney 29%, Ron Paul 15%, Rick Santorum 11%, Rick Perry 3%.

Caveat: Harry Enten makes a persuasive case that InsiderAdvantage has a pro-Gingrich bias to its results.

“Overall, I think it’s going to be pretty hard to argue that we have not executed a strategy over the last three years that has put America in a stronger position than it was than when I came into office.”

— President Obama, in an interview with Time magazine, on Mitt Romney’s criticism of his foreign policy.

Rick Perry will end his bid for the Republican presidential nomination today and endorse Newt Gingrich, the New York Times reports, “a decision that could influence the South Carolina primary on Saturday.”

“The announcement from Mr. Perry was expected to inject fresh momentum into Mr. Gingrich’s efforts to emerge as the leading alternative to Mitt Romney. It was unclear whether Mr. Perry would campaign with Mr. Gingrich in the final two days of the primary campaign here.”

David Brody: “There are a few lessons to be learned in the failed candidacy of Rick Perry. First of all, it doesn’t matter how many boxes you check (and Perry checked a lot of boxes) because if you can’t consistently articulate your message you’ve got no chance. You only get a certain amount of times you can make mistakes on the campaign trail before a narrative begins to form about you. Perry was way over the limit on mistakes.”

More proof the Super PAC formerly run by Stephen Colbert is independent of the comedian’s presidential exploratory bid: It released an ad attacking Colbert himself.

[Read more…]

Obama strategist David Axelrod “is already making plans for after the 2012 election, and they do not involve another candidate or another trip to Iowa,” the New York Times reports.

Instead, Axelrod will lead “a new, nonpartisan Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago aimed at helping students seeking careers in public and social service.”

Said Axelrod: “This is my last campaign.”

The Des Moines Register reports Rick Santorum ended up with a 34 vote lead over Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses but “there are too many holes” in the certified totals to know for certain who won.

“Results from eight precincts are missing — any of which could hold an advantage for Mitt Romney — and will never be recovered and certified.”

A new NBC News/Marist poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 34%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Santorum at 14% and Rick Perry at 4%.

“Yet the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday… On Monday before the debate, Romney led Gingrich in the poll by 15 points, 37% to 22%. But on Tuesday, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31% to 26 %.”

A new Politico poll shows Romney at 37%, Gingrich at 30%, Paul at 11%, Santorum at 10% and Perry at 4%.

“Gingrich has momentum: When voters are asked to volunteer the name of the candidate they plan to vote for without being prompted by a list of names to choose from, Romney’s lead over Gingrich slips to 31-29.”

Kyle Kondik updates the House forecast at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Democrats need to win 25 additional House seats to retake the speaker’s gavel next year. In order for them to do that, President Obama will need to win next year, and that probably won’t be enough. What Democrats really need is a poisonous, damaged Republican nominee who not only loses to Obama but causes harm down the ticket.”

“At this point, we believe that 341 of the 435 House seats are safe for the Republicans (189) or the Democrats (152), which leaves the other 94 as potentially competitive. Ultimately, if Republicans win all the seats we currently favor them to win, and Democrats win all the seats they are favored to win plus all 15 toss ups, Republicans would still hold a 233-202 edge in the House.”