Joe Trippi notes the presidential race “has been a dead heat for months, and most people expect this to be one of the closest presidential races ever… But here’s the thing — the 2012 election isn’t really a two person race. There’s a third party candidate out there — and he could derail either one of the two major party candidates’ shot at the White House.”

“His name is Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico and the Libertarian Party candidate. If that seems doubtful, remember that Ralph Nader didn’t crack 3% of the popular vote in 2000 — yet he completely changed the outcome of that race.”

With more than three months to go before Election Day, a new Pew Research survey finds most voters already feel that there’s little left to learn about the presidential candidates.

“When it comes to Barack Obama, 90% say they already pretty much know what they need to know about him; just 8% say they need to learn more. A substantial majority (69%) also says they already mostly know what they need to know about Mitt Romney. Only about a quarter (28%) say they need to learn more to get a clear impression of Romney. Combining these two questions, fully two-thirds of voters say they already know as much as they need to about both presidential candidates.”

Tampa Tribune: “Strip clubs may not be the most politically correct venue for those attending the Republican National Convention, but that doesn’t mean Tampa’s well-known adult hot spots won’t be ready for the influx of visitors. One place is bringing in a stripper who looks like former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.”

The Week has three theories.

Politico: “The presumptive GOP nominee is known for his abilities as a salesman. But Romney has made a calculation against selling three major elements of his background to voters. To some degree, the Republican’s campaign has walled off three critical aspects of what makes Mitt Mitt — his Mormon faith and good deeds, details of his experience running Bain Capital and his signature achievement as Massachusetts governor.”

“The result: a kind of self-imposed paralysis on biographical messaging that some observers, including Republicans, say may wound his campaign in an era in which voters want to achieve a kind of unprecedented intimacy with their candidates. Right at the moment voters are starting to get to know him, he isn’t telling them his story.”

As Mitt Romney prepares to give a big foreign policy speech today and begin a five-stop trip abroad tomorrow, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds he faces challenges in convincing Americans he is the best candidate to handle foreign affairs.

“More than half of Americans, or 52%, say Obama can better handle foreign policy concerns compared with 40% who choose the presumptive Republican nominee. The numbers are closer among registered voters, who give Obama a 4-point advantage.”

First Read notes foreign policy “is a big strength for Obama heading into the fall. Almost every poll shows that. And that’s the context for Romney’s overseas trip — for this former one-term governor to demonstrate his foreign-policy chops and put more meat on bone. So far, Romney’s foreign-policy statements have seemed more like a political strategy (to sound strong and to outflank Obama) rather a clear foreign-policy outlook.”

First Read on President Obama’s latest ad:

“This is the kind of TV ad you’d expect to see at the end of a campaign or the beginning. So why now? One obvious explanation is that the race has become negative, and this ad is an effort to seize a higher ground and maybe repair the collateral damage from his own negative ads. Another explanation is that the TV ad market in battleground states has become SO saturated that this is an attempt — by having the president speak directly to the camera in a 60-second spot — to break through the clutter.”

A new RNC video blasts President Obama’s economic record using his own words, such as “the private sector is doing fine” and “you didn’t build that.”

[Read more…]

The New York Times reports that one of the lasting legacies of Sen. George McGovern’s (D-SD) choice of Sen. Thomas Eagleton (D-MO) as his vice presidential running mate in 1972 — without knowing that he had been hospitalized for mental health issues — “is the microscopic examination of the lives and records of potential vice-presidential candidates, a ritual involving teams of lawyers and consultants and reams of medical and financial records that the candidates are obligated to produce.”

“McGovern, who had pledged to ‘avoid the messy way vice presidents had been picked in the past,’ chose Mr. Eagleton after considering him for less than an hour. The conversation in which Mr. McGovern offered Mr. Eagleton the nomination lasted precisely 67 seconds, and there was no mention of Mr. Eagleton’s three hospitalizations for depression or the electroshock therapy during two of the stays.”

“Eighteen days later, Mr. Eagleton was forced to resign from the ticket in a debacle that culminated with Mr. McGovern’s enduring the worst defeat in presidential history.”