Politico notes that in 2012 “eight out of nine toss-up Senate races were won by the candidate with the more engaged Facebook fan base. And in the 2012 House elections, 20 of the 33 most competitive races across the country were won by the candidate with a measurable Facebook fan engagement advantage.”

“The correlation between growing fan base, higher fan engagement and victory on Election Day led us to ask this question: Are Facebook metrics a crystal ball that can be used to predict election outcomes?”

“So far, we have trained our forecasting model on four key Senate elections in North Carolina, Alaska, Kentucky and Michigan. In those races, our two-party contest Facebook model shows Republicans potentially picking up one seat.”

First Read: “Today was supposed to be the best of times for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — his inauguration for his second term, a celebration of his 22-point re-election victory last November, and preparation for a possible presidential bid. Instead, it’s among the worst, and we’re not talking about the snowstorm hitting the Northeast. Christie’s biggest political problem right now is that he’s fighting wars on two different fronts, both of which increasingly look like wars of attrition.”

“Bottom line: At the very minimum, the first half of Christie’s 2014 is going to be consumed by these two different investigations, plus any new revelations that surface. And that buys other potential 2016 Republicans some additional time. Maybe the biggest beneficiary: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.”

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) announced he would run for governor of Louisiana in 2015.

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Politico: “Obama’s campaign manager is signing on to help former Republican Charlie Crist return to the Florida governor’s office as a Democrat. Jim Messina is joining Crist’s campaign as a senior strategic adviser, providing big-picture advice as the race gets under way.”

Larry Sabato notes that “when no incumbent was running, the only precedent for a consensus choice in the entire post-World War II era is Richard Nixon in 1960. This impressive feat was nonetheless achieved with some difficulty and embarrassment. Nixon thought he had averted a serious GOP challenge when New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller withdrew as a potential candidate in December 1959. But Nixon’s unappealing persona and substantial baggage from the political wars of the 1940s and 1950s worried many Republicans eager for a third consecutive White House victory. Rockefeller sensed it and reconsidered, toying with a surprise candidacy on the eve of the 1960 Republican National Convention. At the last instant, Rocky relented, mollified by the so-called “Treaty of Fifth Avenue,” a series of concessions by Nixon negotiated in an all-night session and announced by the New York governor himself.”

President Obama’s “sagging approval ratings and the rocky health-law rollout are expanding the map of competitive Senate races this year, giving Republicans new hope of capturing seats in states that the president carried in 2012,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The GOP already had a strong opportunity to pick up a net six seats to win a Senate majority. Democrats have to defend many more seats than Republicans, including in seven states that Mr. Obama lost in 2012. Now, polls show tighter-than-expected races for Democratic-held seats in Colorado, Iowa and Michigan, while a formidable Republican is challenging the Democratic incumbent in Virginia and another is weighing a bid in New Hampshire. In 2012, Mr. Obama won all five of those states.”

Wendy Davis (D), “the Texas state senator who has shaped her campaign for governor largely around her story of rising from a teenage single mother to a Harvard law graduate, released a chronology of her life on Monday after a Dallas newspaper said that she had blurred some details about her past,” the New York Times reports.

Washington Post: “The up-from-nowhere narrative, which emerged during an 11-hour filibuster she staged in June to oppose abortion restrictions, has been a central part of her candidacy and appeal, helping to boost her national profile and fundraising efforts. But the Dallas Morning News reveals a more complicated narrative.”