A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich moves up to third place with 12%, followed by Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates are in single digits.
Of the sexual harassment allegations against Cain, 47% of Republicans say the accusations are probably false while 33% say they are probably true.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds 54% of Republican voters say they aren’t concerned about the sexual-harassment allegations directed at Herman Cain while another 15% say they are “just a little” concerned.
By comparison, just 13% of Republicans say they are a “great deal” or “quite a bit” concerned about voting for Cain.
A campaign mailer from New Jersey Assemblyman Scott Rumana (R) “is essentially a full campaign’s worth of opposition research” against opponent Bill Brennan (D), “slapped into one glossy brochure and sent to homes in Wayne Township.”
“Included in the piece are pictures of at least five police reports filed against Brennan, excerpts from a judge’s ruling in a court case filed by Brennan, a copy of a building code violation issued to Brennan and even a picture of the shirtless Democrat in the act of blocking a code inspector from photographing his patio.”
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Rick Perry defends his loopy speech in New Hampshire last week in a brutal Saturday Night Live skit.
“Unfortunately for too many Republicans, they also aspire to be frugal socialists. We can’t preserve liberty if the choice is between a frugal socialist and an out of control socialist.”
— Rep. Michele Bachmann, quoted by Politico, on her GOP presidential rivals.
Political Wire asks Jeff Greenfield, author most recently of Then Everything Changed, “Why do you not like to make political predictions?”
In 1971, I helped advance man Jerry Bruno write a book (cleverly called: The Advance Man), in which the last chapter sketched out how the next President wold be….New York Mayor John Lindsay. It had the same effect as my consumption of large quantities of cheap bourbon in my freshman year of college. Just as that near-death experience cured me of any impulse toward alcohol excess, my first “prediction” was like a vaccine, immunizing me from the impulse to think I could predict the future.
Look at the “certainties” of almost every past Presidential election. Taken together, random chance would have been a better guide than the collective opinions of experts a year or two before anyone votes.
If I could predict the future, I would — not by announcing the identity of the next President, but by purchasing the next $100 million Powerball. But I can’t predict….so I don’t.
A new Washington Post-ABC News survey finds that 50% of Americans think President Obama is “making a good faith effort to deal with the country’s economic problems,” but Republicans are “playing politics by blocking his proposals and programs.”
Meanwhile, 44% think Obama is at fault and “has not provided leadership on the economy.”
Independents blame Republicans by a 54% to 40% margin, while moderate voters favor blame Republicans by 57% to 37%.
Greg Sargent: “For all their very real disapproval of Obama, they think one party is
acting in good faith to fix the economy, and the other isn’t. So when is
the national political press going to start seriously covering this
aspect of the debate?”
A new We Ask America poll in Iowa finds Herman Cain leading the GOP presidential field with 22%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 15%, and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 11%.
No other candidate gets more than 5%.
Radar Online reports a new woman alleging sexual harassment by Herman Cain “will break her silence at a news conference with her powerhouse attorney Gloria Allred Monday afternoon in New York City.”
The press conference is at 1:30 pm ET.
Ben Smith: “This should, in principle, harden Cain’s support among his defenders.
After all, if it was difficult to pin political motives on women who
filed complaints a decade ago and then refused to discuss them, it’s not
so hard to pin a pecuniary motive on people whose press conferences
with Allred leak to radar.”
It may be the middle of a presidential campaign, but Newt Gingrich has a new book out: The Battle of the Crater, written with William R. Forstchen.
First Read looks at the battleground map and shows a presidential contest is shaping up to be potentially very close, or as they put it, “think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states.”
Solid Dem: DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)
Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)
Likely GOP: AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)
Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)
Chris Cillizza
looks at the electoral map math for President Obama to secure
reelection and finds that “the ground on which the 2012 election will be
fought still favors him and should give Democrats some hope that he can
claim a second term in a year’s time.”
“In New Mexico (five electoral
votes) and Iowa (six electoral votes), Obama has an edge… Assuming
Obama can win those two states again — and hold the 19 other states he
won that also went to the Democrat, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), in 2004 —
he would be just 12 electoral votes shy of 270. That means Obama could
would need to win only one of the following states to be reelected:
Florida, North Carolina, Ohio or Virginia… What would mess up that
math for Democrats, however, is if Obama were not able to hold some of
the states that backed both him and Kerry. The epicenter of that
potential Democratic problem is in the Rust Belt.”
The Hotline:
“After months of debate inside the Romney camp over whether to compete
in Iowa, it seems the decision has been made: Romney will play in Iowa,
and he will play to win. The most recent evidence: Romney will hold
campaign events Monday in Iowa, his second trip in three weeks after
visiting the state only twice in the previous 12 months; His son Josh
and wife Ann have quietly canvassed the state in recent weeks, and both
have campaigned vigorously there for the Republican candidate in a
crucial state Senate race; and Romney just launched aggressive robocalls
in Iowa attacking Perry over his immigration policies, throwing the
first punch in what could be a heavyweight Hawkeye State bout.”
“The
question is no longer whether Romney competes in Iowa; the question is
how much time and money he’ll invest in the state that so wounded his
candidacy in 2008.”
Despite passed filing deadlines in several early states, Matt Latimer thinks it might still be possible for another Republican presidential candidate to enter the race.
“This year feels very different, as if anything could happen. Who knows: if an establishment favorite like Romney falters early, it is always possible that an entirely new candidate might yet decide to jump into the contest. Hoover, FDR, Kennedy, Nixon, and LBJ each won presidential primaries as write-in candidates. If things continue to be so unsettled, it’s not impossible that someone may decide to repeat that feat in 2012. Just don’t anybody give that idea to Donald Trump.”
“There is nothing appealing about him at all. The rule prohibits me to disclose names, but his initials are Dick Morris.”
— James Carville, in an interview with Politico, on his least favorite person in Washington, D.C.
David Remnick: “The knowing people who know things in Washington generally believe that, once the electoral process begins, in January, Romney will shed Cain, Perry, Bachmann, and the rest in rapid fashion. Perhaps. To look at Romney is to see plausibility. But a large portion of the Republican electorate seems determined to hop from one fantastically flawed alternative to the next rather than settle on him. A few may be loath to vote for a Mormon; others have ideological differences that make it hard to embrace him. It is Romney’s spooky elasticity, his capacity to reverse himself utterly on one issue after another– health care, climate change, abortion, gun control, immigration, the 2009 stimulus, capital-gains taxes, stem-cell research, gay rights — that seems to bother voters most. They might rightly ask if there is even one thing that Mitt Romney believes in with greater conviction than his inevitability.”
Niall Stanage: “Mitt Romney could be the Hillary Clinton of 2012.”
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Mitt Romney has a significant advantage over his GOP rivals in just one area — electability.
“The survey tested the candidates on six attributes or characteristics. Romney has a sizable lead in just one: One-third of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he has the best chance of anyone in the field to defeat Obama in 2012. Running second on that question is businessman Herman Cain. About one-fifth say Cain would be the party’s strongest candidate.”
“In the other five areas tested in the new survey, Romney shows no greater strength than other GOP contenders. On empathy, 21% say Cain is the one who best understands their problems, compared with Romney’s 17%. On honesty, it’s Cain at 22%, Romney at 17%. The two also run closely on the economy and issues generally, while Newt Gingrich rivals Romney on upholding core Republican values.”
The New York Times reviews two Bush administration memoirs: Known and Unknown by Donald Rumsfeld and In My Time by Dick Cheney.
“Both books have received mostly negative reviews — largely deserved. Rumsfeld’s book is dense and bloated, although modestly candid. Cheney’s is clearly written (with help from his daughter Liz Cheney), but with the exception of its last chapters, dry, earnest and dull. None of this seems to have had much impact on their sales. Both spent time at the top of the best-seller lists.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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