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Deleted Tweets from Politicians

May 30, 2012 at 3:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Very cool idea: Politwoops uncovers tweets that politicians shared on Twitter and then quickly deleted.

What is Trump’s Political Calculus?

May 30, 2012 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Frank Rich: “There is no more naked celebrity in America than Donald Trump. He doesn’t do subtlety. He doesn’t do ‘thought.’ To say he has a political calculus is a wild overstatement. His strategy amounts to no more than junior high school algebra. The equation is: Trump + infantile public statement x infinite repetitions on TV and Twitter = maximum publicity for flailing Trump products and insatiable Trump ego.”

A Different Candidate in Spanish

May 30, 2012 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Dean Heller’s (R-NV) campaign has set up a Spanish-language website which “is not as robust as the English-language version but does have a summary statement about the candidate,” the Las Vegas Sun reports.

“On both sites, information can be found on Heller’s stance on immigration, including similar sections that address the convoluted immigration system…. Yet, only the English-language site addresses Heller’s stance on border security and illegal immigration.”

Also: “Heller, through his statements and votes in Congress, has consistently supported limiting or eliminating the ability to conduct government business in any language other than English… On his Spanish-language website, however, his statement indicated concern over Nevada students whose first language is not English.”


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Pollsters Avoiding New Hampshire?

May 30, 2012 at 1:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Campaigns & Elections: “To poll or not to poll in New Hampshire, that is the question for an increasing number of survey research firms this cycle. Given the state’s new push polling law, is it better for business to take work in the battleground state and risk getting hit with a fine, or is it best to boycott the state and pressure lawmakers to reform the statute?”

“It’s a Hamletesque dilemma for the polling industry, which has been rallying in recent weeks to force a change to New Hampshire’s law. In the past year, several firms have been slapped with hefty fines, and with more enforcement action in the works both sides are digging in.”

Obama Calls to Congratulate Romney

May 30, 2012 at 1:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama and Mitt Romney “spoke to each other for the first time since the general election campaign has begun in earnest,” the Washington Post reports.

“According to the White House, Obama called Romney just before noon to congratulate him on securing the Republican presidential nomination after he won the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. Romney’s victory, coming after his leading challengers withdrew or suspended their campaigns over the past several weeks, gave him at least 88 more delegates, putting him over the 1,144 he needed to clinch the nomination.”

Walker Maintains Lead in Wisconsin Recall Race

May 30, 2012 at 1:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Tom Barrett (D), 52% to 45% among likely voters.

However, Greg Sargent reports a new poll taken by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake finds the race deadlocked at 49% each.

Romney Rebounds Among Women

May 30, 2012 at 1:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a sharp advance among women “has boosted Mitt Romney to his highest favorability rating of the presidential campaign – albeit still an unusually weak one – while President Obama’s personal popularity has slipped.”

“Obama still beats Romney in favorable ratings overall, by an 11-point margin, 52% vs. 41%. But that’s down from 21 points last month… All Romney’s gains have come among women — up by 13 percentage points in personal popularity from last month, while Obama’s lost 7 points among women. (Views among men have been more stable.) Obama’s rating among women, 51% favorable, still beats Romney’s 40% — but again that margin is far smaller than what it was six weeks ago.”

New Indie Voter Group Launches

May 30, 2012 at 1:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Veteran political ad-maker Bill Hillsman — the man behind “hilarious and highly effective ads” for Paul Wellstone, Jesse Ventura, Ross Perot and others — has launched Independent Voters of America, Tech President reports.

Said Hillsman: “We are building the largest online community of self-identified independent voters, with the goals of bringing fresh voices and more choices into our politics, acting as a counterweight to the two major political parties, and to reduce gridlock, force progress and bring a new accountability to Washington.”

Unlike the failed Americans Elect, the new project seeks “to give self-identified independent voters a gathering place” and then “see where people want to take this.”

Mass Exodus of State Legislators

May 30, 2012 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Governing: “Like a recurring astronomical event, this year’s election cycle features a once-a-decade confluence of term limits and redistricting — a confluence that is expected to produce unusually high levels of turnover among state lawmakers.”

“The last time an election occurred in the wake of redistricting was 2002. That year, just under 24 percent of legislative seats changed hands in the November election… That was a higher rate than in any election cycle between 1998 and 2008, when the turnover ranged between 14.4 percent and 21.5 percent… But the scale of what could happen in 2012 may be unprecedented. That’s because this fall’s elections will immediately follow another high-turnover election cycle — the 2010 cycle, in which Republicans made widespread gains in state legislatures and produced a turnover rate of slightly less than 24 percent.”

Illinois Lawmaker Loses It

May 30, 2012 at 11:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Illinois state Rep. Mike Bost (R) was caught on video screaming and throwing papers as he expressed frustration about Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) plan to overhaul the state pension system.

[Read more…]

Romney Releases Birth Certificate

May 30, 2012 at 11:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mitt Romney appears eligible to be president, according to a copy of Romney’s birth certificate released to Reuters by his campaign.

Willard Mitt Romney, the certificate says, was born in Detroit on March 12, 1947.

High Approval for Rahm

May 30, 2012 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new We Ask America poll in Chicago finds Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s job approval rating at 64%.

Campaign Still Entirely on GOP Turf

May 30, 2012 at 9:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read looks at “this week’s 10 hottest advertising markets in the presidential campaign and notes they’re all in states that George W. Bush carried in 2004 (and three that John Kerry never contested).”

“Six of the top 10 advertising markets are in North Carolina and Virginia… (Still don’t think that North Carolina is a true battleground?) The other four markets are in Colorado, Ohio, and Iowa.”

Meanwhile, the New York Times confirms that Romney has placed “a priority on winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia,” plus an additional one.

Senate Democrats Outspent 3 to 1 on Super PAC Ads

May 30, 2012 at 9:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Democrats “are bearing an early television advertising assault by Republican-leaning groups that is reshaping those races,” Bloomberg reports.

In Ohio and Virginia, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Tim Kaine (D) “are being outspent by at least a 3-to-1 ratio on television advertising as super political action committees supporting Democrats struggle to raise money and President Obama and the national party conserve resources for the fall election.”

Romney’s Awkward Embrace of a Casino Magnate

May 30, 2012 at 9:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Boston Globe: “They make awkward bedfellows, to be sure: Mitt Romney, the strait-laced Mormon who does not gamble, drink or cavort, and Sheldon Adelson, the socially liberal casino mogul whose resorts rank among the world’s favorite places to do all three.”

“Yet Romney met with Adelson Tuesday in Las Vegas, and the billionaire has pledged to support Romney against President Obama — presumably with money earned from gambling, which ‘undermines the virtues of work and thrift,’ according to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.”

Obama Opens New Line of Attack on Romney

May 30, 2012 at 8:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama’s re-election campaign is opening a new front in its war against Mitt Romney, ABC News reports.

The new effort focuses on Romney’s record as governor of Massachusetts “and the campaign promises Democrats say he left unfulfilled. Team Obama will point to Romney’s rhetoric on job creation, size of government, education, deficits and taxes during the 2002 gubernatorial campaign and draw parallels with his presidential stump speeches of 2012. The goal is to illustrate that Romney has made the same promises before with unimpressive results.”

Greg Sargent: “Obama needs to persuade voters to do more than simply accept Romney as an alternative to the economic status quo who’s worth taking a flyer on. He needs to get them to look past general impressions of Romney’s competence and to realize that Romney is offering an actual set of policies and ideas about the economy that have been tried before. His ‘Mr. Fix It’ aura — which is rooted in the pitch that he can translate private sector know-how to the public sector — is belied by his actual record as a public official.”

GOP Groups Plan $1 Billion Push for Romney

May 30, 2012 at 6:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republican super PACs and other outside groups shaped by a loose network of prominent conservatives — including Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and Tom Donohue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — plan to spend roughly $1 billion on November’s elections for the White House and control of Congress,” Politico reports.

“That total includes previously undisclosed plans for newly aggressive spending by the Koch brothers, who are steering funding to build sophisticated, county-by-county operations in key states… Koch-related organizations plan to spend about $400 million ahead of the 2012 elections — twice what they had been expected to commit.”

Alexander Burns: “Democrats have been raising the alarm about outside spending for some
time and clearly have reason to be afraid. It’s anyone’s guess how
heavily all that money will influence the election: these groups are not
all equally effective or equally committed to the same set of message
points.”

Cruz Forces Runoff in Texas

May 30, 2012 at 6:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Dewhurst (R) and tea party darling Ted Cruz (R) were headed for another round in the Republican U.S. Senate race in Texas after Dewhurst fell shy of a majority vote in yesterday’s primary, the Dallas Morning News reports.

Politico: “The outcome marks the third victory for anti-establishment GOP Senate candidates in as many weeks. Earlier this month, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock upended 36-year Sen. Dick Lugar in Indiana, and state Sen. Deb Fischer upset two better-known candidates in Nebraska.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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