John Heilemann: “Thus, to a very real degree, 2008’s candidate of hope stands poised to become 2012’s candidate of fear. For many Democrats, this is just fine and dandy, for they believe that in the Romney-Republican agenda there is plenty to be scared of. For others in the party in both politics and business, however, the new Obama posture is cause for concern. From the gay-­marriage decision to the onslaught on Bain, they see the president and his team as coming across as too divisive, too conventional, and too nakedly political, putting at risk Obama’s greatest asset — his likability — with the voters in the middle of the electorate who will ultimately decide his fate.”

“Whichever side is right, one thing is undeniable. For anyone still starry-eyed about Obama, the months ahead will provide a bracing revelation about what he truly is: not a savior, not a saint, not a man above the fray, but a brass-knuckled, pipe-hitting, red-in-tooth-and-claw brawler determined to do what is necessary to stay in power — in other words, a politician.”

An Associated Press analysis concludes that if the presidential election were today, President Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 — both short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Seven states, offering a combined 85 electoral votes, are viewed as too close to give either candidate a meaningful advantage: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

Billionaire investor Joe Ricketts, who dropped plans for a $10 million advertising blitz linking President Obama with the fiery race-based rhetoric of the Rev. Jeremia Wright, “is involved in another effort slated for this summer, a documentary film based on a widely criticized book, The Roots of Obama’s Rage by Dinesh D’Souza, which asserts that Mr. Obama is carrying out the ‘anticolonial’ agenda of his Kenyan father,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Ricketts’s aides said he was one of roughly two dozen investors, providing only 5 percent of the film’s budget. But his involvement shows how the more strident attacks against Mr. Obama, which Mr. Romney’s aides view as counterproductive, continue to find backing even as the Republican Party and the Romney campaign seek to keep the focus on the economy.”

A new Rasmussen survey in Indiana shows Joe Donnelly (D) and Richard Mourdock (R) locked in a dead heat in their U.S. Senate race, 42% to 42%.

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI) said that he “may not have turned in enough valid signatures to qualify for the Aug. 7 Republican primary in his suburban Detroit district,” the Detroit News reports.

Said McCotter: “Fully respecting the accuracy and integrity of the Secretary of State’s Office, we will thoroughly review our petition signatures for their sufficiency or insufficiency. Out of respect for Memorial Day, an announcement of our findings will be made public on Tuesday.”

“If his signatures are ruled insufficient, McCotter would still have options. He could run as a write-in Republican candidate or as an independent.”

A new Wisconsin poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) with a narrow lead over challenger Tom Barrett (D) in the recall election, 49% to 46%.

Donald Trump told Lloyd Grove that President Obama was born in Kenya, not the United States.

Said Trump: “That’s the way life works… He didn’t know he was running for president, so he told the truth. The literary agent wrote down what he said… He said he was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia… Now they’re saying it was a mistake. Just like his Kenyan grandmother said he was born in Kenya, and she pointed down the road to the hospital, and after people started screaming at her she said, ‘Oh, I mean Hawaii.’ Give me a break.”

President Obama, not Mitt Romney, “is the one with the muddled message — and the one who often comes across as baldly political,” Politico reports. 

“Obama, not Romney, is the one facing blowback from his own party on the central issue of the campaign so far – Romney’s history with Bain Capital. And most remarkably, Obama, not Romney, is the one falling behind in fundraising.”

However, First Read points out there is “one big exception to this: Donald Trump. Yesterday, we found out that Romney will attend a fundraiser in Las Vegas on Tuesday with Trump, and the campaign is also pushing a “Dine with Donald Trump and Mitt Romney” competition. This now makes Trump an unmistakable surrogate for the Romney campaign, especially considering his other assistance to Romney (his endorsement, attendance at other fundraisers). And as we’ve seen in the past, candidates are often forced to own what their surrogates say.”

“Mitt Romney did what he had to do in order to become the nominee.”

— Newt Gingrich, in an interview on MSNBC.