Alan Abramowitz plugs the latest approval and GDP growth numbers into his presidential forecasting model and finds President Obama is expected to win re-election by a very narrow share of the two-party vote.

“Whether we base our prediction on President Obama’s 47% approval rating in the Gallup Poll in early May or a more sophisticated forecasting model incorporating economic conditions and the ‘time for change’ factor, it appears likely that we are headed for a very close election in November. Both models make Obama a slight favorite to win a second term. However, the final outcome will depend on the actual performance of the economy and the public’s evaluation of the president’s job performance in the months ahead. Those interested in assessing where the presidential race stands should focus on these two indicators rather than the day-to-day events of the campaign, which tend to dominate media coverage of the election.”

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: “Ever since the recall wars erupted in this battleground state, the Obama campaign has been faced with a dilemma: how involved does the President get in a polarizing fight with huge national overtones?”

“Less than two weeks to go before the June 5 election, the answer seems pretty clear. The Obama forces are pitching in with voter turnout and fund-raising appeals. But the President has avoided taking a vocal role in the conflict, and there is little expectation of an Obama visit to Wisconsin in the homestretch of the campaign.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Texas shows David Dewhurst (R) leads Ted Cruz (R) by a whopping 17 points in the GOP Senate primary, 46% to 29%

The main question on Tuesday will be whether Dewhurst can get over 50% and avoid a runoff.

First Read notes President Obama’s approval rating is now a solid 48% and that he’s also at 48% in three new battleground state polls.

“What does this mean? Is 48% a good thing or bad thing? On the one hand, he’s leading and in the high 40s, despite what’s been a rocky and volatile last few weeks (the April jobs numbers, the worries out of Europe, the rushed gay-marriage announcement, etc.). On the other hand, he remains below that important 50% threshold that’s usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney is well within striking distance, especially given all of Europe’s economic uncertainty.”

“Bottom line: 48% is really the knife’s edge; not quite close enough where you can just fall over the 50% finish line, but close enough that it doesn’t take much. It’s a number to follow in the months ahead.”

Donald Trump tells Newsmax that he is seriously considering launching his own super PAC.

His goal would be to produce ads against President Obama that show how Washington is permitting outsiders to “absolutely suck the blood out of this country.”

Said Trump: “If I did one I would show how bad we’re doing as a country, how disrespected we are as a country. I would show people from OPEC, 11 people sitting around a beautiful gold-encrusted table talking about how they are going to continue to rip off the United States.”

“I’m so boring that I didn’t even know I was boring.”

— Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), quoted by the Washington Post.

New NBC Marist polls find President Obama with a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in three of the most pivotal presidential battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%

A new Reason-Rupe poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) eight points ahead of challenger Tom Barrett (D) in the recall race, 50% to 42%.

A new St. Norbert College poll finds Walker leading by five points, 50% to 45%.

A new We Ask America poll shows Walker leading by 12 points, 54% to 42%.

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) with a slight lead over challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 48% to 47%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election.”

Also interesting: 72% were aware of the recent controversy concerning Warren’s heritage. Of those, 49% said Warren was telling the truth about being part Native American; 28% said she was not telling the truth; and 23% weren’t sure.

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT), who is running for U.S. Senate in Montana, has become the poster child for boating safety, but not in a good way, the Huffington Post reports.

“Rehberg was one of several people injured in a 2009 boating wreck when the speedboat he was riding in… slammed into the rocky shore of a lake… The startling photo of the wreck, with the boat entirely out of the water, made most local papers. And now, it’s the feature photo of a boating safety campaign in Montana.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney has now opened back up a seven point lead over President Obama, 50% to 43%.

During the GOP primaries, similar surveys suggested the state might be winnable for Democrats.

The New Republic profiles Bob White, a “longtime-pal-cum-alter-ego” to Mitt Romney.

“White, who is trim with graying brown hair, was one of Romney’s original hires when launching the private-equity firm back in the 1980s. He has been at Romney’s side in every major endeavor he’s undertaken since, from the Olympics to the campaign trail. Over the course of Romney’s career, White has served as debate prepper, personnel vetter, designated gut-checker, in-house historian, and diplomatic envoy. It was White who found Romney a campaign manager for his run for governor, White who headed his transition to the Massachusetts statehouse, White who has chaired his campaigns for president.”

Gallup finds that Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an
unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of
his tenure as vice president.