Model Forecasts a Narrow Obama Victory

Alan Abramowitz plugs the latest approval and GDP growth numbers into his presidential forecasting model and finds President Obama is expected to win re-election by a very narrow share of the two-party vote.

“Whether we base our prediction on President Obama’s 47% approval rating in the Gallup Poll in early May or a more sophisticated forecasting model incorporating economic conditions and the ‘time for change’ factor, it appears likely that we are headed for a very close election in November. Both models make Obama a slight favorite to win a second term. However, the final outcome will depend on the actual performance of the economy and the public’s evaluation of the president’s job performance in the months ahead. Those interested in assessing where the presidential race stands should focus on these two indicators rather than the day-to-day events of the campaign, which tend to dominate media coverage of the election.”