First Read: “When the remaining four presidential candidates gather for the 18th debate of the cycle tonight in Tampa, FL, the stakes couldn’t be any higher, especially for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. For Romney — fresh off his double-digit defeat in South Carolina and after uneven performances in his last two debates — tonight’s debate is a crucial moment for his campaign. Either he rises to the occasion (by providing sharper answers, by disqualifying Gingrich, and by proving to GOP voters the confidence he can be their guy in November), or he struggles again, giving Gingrich a path to overtake him in Florida. For Gingrich, tonight’s debate will prove if he can withstand the attacks (because they’re coming), and if he can pull off another strong performance.”

“And don’t lose sight of Rick Santorum (who has leveled pointed criticism
at both Romney and Gingrich in past debates) or Ron Paul (who has
sometimes has served as Romney’s wingman). If we learned anything from
South Carolina, it’s that the debates have mattered, and tonight’s
debate likely won’t be any different.”

The debate starts at 9 p.m. ET on NBC.

A new Rasmussen survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich jumping into the lead in the GOP presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Two earlier polls also showed Gingrich surging into the lead in Florida.

As President Obama prepares to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night, The Hill looks at the efforts to balance the policy and politics of an election year address.

“The White House has said in no uncertain terms that Obama’s path to
another term will be cleared by open conflict with a
Republican-controlled House that is deeply unpopular with voters, so
observers expect a pugnacious Obama to take the lectern… While there
might be some finger-wagging, don’t expect a trash-talking president.
After all, you can’t exactly walk into someone else’s house, sit on the
living room couch and drop some insults… At the same time, the White
House has pushed back at suggestions the State of the Union will be
Obama’s first major stump speech of his reelection bid, insisting Obama
will focus on policy in the address.”

As Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) wraps up his failed presidential bid and heads home to continue governing his state, Time
reports that he “returns bruised and diminished, taking his place among
a gallery of strong talkin’, wide-steppin’ Texas politicos who have
ventured across the Red River only to return with their tails between
their legs.”

“Many Texans must feel that the governor is returning as
damaged goods with lots of self-inflicted political wounds which he
will have to heal fast to be able to be effective at governing the
state… Texas has no term limits and Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan said
following the drop out announcement that the governor would not rule out
another term… But there are other strong Republicans standing in the
queue for the top job in Texas, including Attorney General Greg Abbott.
Meanwhile, a few Republicans are beginning to question Perry’s policies
and approach, some even agreeing to go on the record.”

“The verdict is in: Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital problem is real,” Politico reports.

“Of all the forces that converged to doom Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, none may be as disconcerting for Republicans as the attacks on Romney’s private equity work — an offensive that caught Romney off-guard and triggered a damaging conversation about his vast personal wealth.”

Coming off his big win in South Carolina, a new InsiderAdvantage poll in Florida shows Newt Gingrich surging into the lead of the GOP presidential race with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Ron Paul at 13% and Rick Santorum at 11%.

Meanwhile, in the first night of polling Florida, Public Policy Polling finds Gingrich and Romney “neck and neck.”

“We’re not choosing a talk show host. We’re choosing the person who should be leader of the free world.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by the Los Angeles Times, alluding to his Newt Gingrich’s strong debate performances that helped shift momentum in the GOP presidential race.

Speaking in Florida, Mitt Romney “deviated from his standard remarks early, looking to define the candidate who mauled him in South Carolina in a different light by bringing up the tumultuous end of Gingrich’s tenure as speaker of the House of Representatives,” NBC News reports.

Said Romney: “So I’ve had the experience of leadership. Now Speaker Gingrich has also been a leader. He was a leader for four years as speaker of the House. And at the end of four years it was proven he was a failed leader. And he had to resign in disgrace. I don’t know if you knew that. He actually resigned after four years in disgrace. He was investigated under an ethics panel and had to make a payment associated with that and then his fellow Republicans, 88 percent of Republicans, voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”

“Direct assaults like this from Romney on the stump are rare enough to be startling to those who hear him speak daily, but Romney didn’t stop there, also tying Gingrich to the housing crisis in a state where the collapse in home values has been acutely felt.”

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), who was shot in the head during a 2011 assassination attempt, announced that she will resign from Congress this week in order to focus on her continuing recovery, the Arizona Republic reports.

“Giffords, whose ability to speak was damaged by the gunman’s attack, made the announcement herself in a YouTube video posted to her account. She plans to attend President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address on Tuesday and will resign sometime after that.”

Washington Post: “According to state law, Gov. Jan Brewer must set a date for a special election primary 80 to 90 days after Giffords formally steps down, and a general election will be set for 50 to 60 days after the primary. So the primary election for Giffords seat will likely be held in late April with the general election in June.”

John Heilemann: “If Gingrich wins Florida, the Republican Establishment is going to have a meltdown that makes Three Mile Island look like a marshmallow roast.”

“Why? Because the Establishment will be staring down the barrel of two utterly unpalatable choices. On the one hand, Gingrich’s national favorable-unfavorable ratings of 26.5 and 58.6 percent, respectively make him not just unelectable against Obama but also mean that he would likely be a ten-ton millstone around the necks of down-ballot Republican candidates across the country. And on the other, Romney has shown in two successive contests — one in a bellwether Republican state, the other in a key swing state — an inability to beat his deeply unpopular rival. If this scenario unfolds, the sound of GOP grandees whispering calls for a white knight… will be deafening.”

Mitt Romney has two advantages as the Florida primary approaches on January 31: money and early voting. Romney and an aligned Super PAC
have spent more than $7 million of airtime already in the state and nearly 200,000 Republicans have already cast their votes.

But Politico notes Newt Gingrich heads into Florida “emboldened by two assets that will test Romney’s organization and money there: the momentum from a double-digit victory and a conservative base that appears to be coalescing. But the results here revealed Romney’s weakness as much as they hinted at Gingrich’s potential. The establishment favorite didn’t just lose South Carolina – he got thrashed,”

First Read adds that the GOP electorate in Florida “has the potential to be unkind to Romney. Think South Carolina but with Cuban Americans in Miami thrown into the mix. According to the 2008 exit polls, 61% of Florida Republican primary voters considered themselves conservative (68% said they were conservative in South Carolina last night). And remember: Florida’s primary is closed, meaning that independents don’t get to vote. After all, it’s the same electorate that picked Rick Scott in 2010 over establishment favorite Bill McCollum.”

Adam Smith: “As important as money, television advertising and organization are here,
momentum tends to trump everything else in widely watched presidential
campaigns. Romney easily outspent and out-organized John McCain in
Florida in 2008 and still lost.”

“One or two more defeats and who knows what he’s going to say….I think he’s been dancing on eggs trying to find a version of Romney that will work.”

— Newt Gingrich, in an interview on Face the Nation, about GOP presidential rival Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney told Fox News that he will release his tax returns for 2010 on Tuesday, with an estimate of his 2011 returns.

Said Romney: “We made a mistake holding off as long as we did.”

First Read: “Romney is not going to be the de-facto nominee until he wins over the conservative base of his party (outside of New Hampshire). And last night in South Carolina, that base overwhelmingly broke for Gingrich. Among voters who described themselves as “very conservative” (who made up 36% of last night’s primary electorate) Gingrich beat Romney, 48%-19%. Among Tea Party supporters, Gingrich had a 20-point edge, 45%-25%. And among those who are evangelicals or born-again Christians (who made up 65% of the electorate) Gingrich won, 44%-22%. And just as importantly, these folks finally coalesced around one anti-Romney alternative — and that person was Gingrich.”

“Ultimately, Romney’s problem right now is message — not mechanics. And as we saw in 2008, Romney doesn’t do the attack well. That’s what is going to make Monday night’s NBC debate so fascinating to watch.”