“When we talk about Obama 20 or 30 years from now, this is likely to be the bill we talk about. If the Supreme Court takes away from Obama his biggest accomplishment, this is exactly what a president really fears. In some ways, it’s worse than not getting re-elected.”

— Presidential historian Julian Zelizer, quoted by Bloomberg, on the fate of President Obama’s health care law.

The Wall Street Journal notes President Obama “has been doing more than sitting back and waiting” for the Supreme Court’s health care decision. He has “three separate speeches prepared in anticipation of the ruling on his signature legislative achievement.”

“One of the speeches addresses a complete overturn of the law, while another is crafted as if the court strikes down the law’s individual mandate but upholds other provisions. The third speech, for if the court upholds the entire law, is more celebratory, according to this person.”

First Read: “We can report that if the U.S. Supreme Court finds the health-care law
constitutional, Obama will comment from the White House fairly soon
after the decision. But if it’s unconstitutional — or if the ruling is a
mixed bag — reaction from Obama could come later in the day.”

Wonk Wire: How to read a Supreme Court decision.

“Many expect an activist Supreme Court will strike down part or all of health reform. If they strike down the mandate, the Supreme Court will be paving the way to a single-payer system, or back to the old broken health care system.”

— Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), quoted by TPM.

Take our poll over at Wonk Wire.

Despite conventional wisdom that most or all of President Obama’s health care law will be overturned by the Supreme Court tomorrow, Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog disagrees:

“I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.”

“Most observers disagree. There are certainly good reasons to believe the Court will invalidate the mandate. Most important, at the oral argument, the questions of two critical Justices – Justice Kennedy and the Chief Justice – were on the whole critical of the mandate’s constitutionality. But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow.”

A new ABC News-Washington Post poll finds just 36% express a favorable opinion of the health care law under Supreme Court review, but just 39% like the health care system as it currently stands.

“That means that while the intended fix is unpopular, so is the status quo – leaving the public still in search of solutions.”

Sean Trende: “The real Supreme Court news on Tuesday wasn’t the Arizona immigration decision or even the summary reversal of the Supreme Court of Montana in the ‘Citizens United 2’ case. It was that the chief justice of the United States didn’t write any of these opinions.”

“This is critically important, because we can now deduce with a reasonably high degree of certainty that John Roberts is writing the lead health care opinion. If we are right about this, then the law is in even deeper trouble that most observers imagined.”

However, Ed Whelan reads the tea leaves and concludes “the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote.”

Businessweek: Anthony Kennedy, the Justice everyone is watching.

The Boston Globe previews Mitt Romney’s message after tomorrow’s Supreme Court ruling on President Obama’s health care plan:

“If the law is rejected, Romney plans to argue that Obama wasted both his time, and the time of the American people, by pursuing a policy that doesn’t pass constitutional muster. If the law is upheld, Romney would argue that opponents need to elect him so that he can overturn it himself.”