Bloomberg reports the geography of the U.S. economic rebound is providing an edge to President Obama’s re-election.

“The unemployment rates in a majority of the 2012 battleground states are lower than the national average as those economies improve… Those eight states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — have a combined 101 electoral votes. Romney must win at least 79 of those electoral votes to prevail if all other states run true to their 2004 and 2008 partisan preferences.”

“A projection Moody’s made May 21 based on the model predicts an Obama victory with 303 electoral voters, with the Democrat carrying Ohio and Virginia and the Republican winning Florida.”

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney by four points nationally, 47% to 43%.

“But the poll found much to stir concern within the burgeoning Obama re-election campaign. Despite signs of economic recovery, nearly half of Americans said the country is at the start of a long-term decline. Americans by a sizable plurality said Mr. Obama’s approach has worsened the nation’s budget deficit and health-care problems, and increased its partisan divide.”

Key finding: 63% say they are not confident their children’s lives will be better than theirs.

A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading Tom Barrett (D) in the recall race, 50% to 47% — within the poll’s four-point margin of error.

Several other recent polls have show Walker opening up a larger lead.

Republicans drag Cory Booker’s walk-back of his weekend comments out for another day by alleging in a new video that President Obama’s re-election campaign is engaged in a cover up.

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A new Castleton State College poll in Vermont finds Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) headed for a landslide re-election.

Shumlin leads challenger Randy Brock (R), 60% to 27%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney by eight points, 50% to 42%, essentially unchanged from early March.

“I have saved the taxpayers billions. That $3.2 billion would be enough to fund me and my congressional office for the next 1,000 years or so.”

— Rep. Steve King (R-IA), quoted by the Des Moines Register, defending his votes in favor of congressional pay raises.

Jon Karl: “Mia Love is a Republican Congressional candidate unlike any you have ever seen before — African American, Mormon, conservative and the Republican party has declared her race one of the top 10 House races in the country this year. She is now the mayor of Saratoga Springs, Utah (pop. 18,000), but if she wins, Love will be the first African-American woman Republican elected to Congress.”

Jeff Greenfield: “First, when have presidents who are up for re-election dumped their vice-presidents, and why have they done it? The difference between the reality and the Hillary-for-Joe fantasy can be measured in light years.”

“Second, if Obama were to attempt this, how would he explain it? Trying to answer this question with a straight face is the best way to understand why (assuming accident or illness does not intervene) it’s not going to happen.”

A new ad from Larry McCarthy, the producer behind the infamous Willie Horton commercial in 1988, and funded Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS, “is expected to become one of the most heavily broadcast political commercials of this phase of the general election,” the New York Times reports.

It will debut tomorrow in 10 swing states as the centerpiece of a $25 million campaign.

“Yet what Mr. McCarthy and Crossroads have produced is not the kind of searing denunciation of President Obama that their track records would suggest. More soft-pedal than Swift Boat, the 60-second advertisement, complete with special effects, is a deeply researched, delicately worded story of a struggling family; its relatively low-key tone is all the more striking, coming at a point in the campaign when each side is accusing the other of excessive negativity.”

MSNBC: “The most misunderstood voting bloc in the 2012 election is the Catholic vote. Why? Because there isn’t one. The religious assemblage, which has evolved over the past century from a strong Democratic constituency into a national election bellwether, is no longer discernible from most other voter groups. As the community has become less homogenous and more assimilated into mainstream culture, so has its voting habits – sending many politicians on a fool’s errand in pursuit of the ‘Catholic vote.”

“If I thought that call was coming, I would disconnect the phone.”

— Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), quoted by Yahoo News, on potentially being picked as Mitt Romney’s running mate.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker spoke to Rachel Maddow about being the Romney campaign’s shield for Presdent Obama’s attacks on Bain Capital.

Said Booker: “I am very upset that I am being used by the GOP this way and it’s, uh, while I thought today I was going to be quiet, I’ve been pushed so far that you are going to hear a lot from me to the extent possible and to the extent that President Obama and his campaign want to hear from me.”

First Read notes Booker is “clearly nervous about how this episode is playing with base Democrats.”

Over at Wonk Wire: A critique of private equity firms.

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Democrats are concerned that no-name challenger John Wolfe could embarrass President Obama in today’s Arkansas Democratic presidential primary.

Charlie Mahtesian: “Coming on the heels of Obama’s West Virginia performance — where a convicted felon won 41 percent against him on May 8 — this contest has a similarly high potential embarrassment factor. Arkansas, once the home state to the Clintons, was Obama’s single worst in the 2008 primaries: Hillary Clinton beat him 70 percent to 27 percent. In November, he was shellacked again by John McCain, losing by 20 percentage points.”

The Fix: “Couple Wolfe’s candidacy in Arkansas with the fact that Kentucky —
another place where Obama isn’t popular with many people who call
themselves Democrats — also votes today (Obama faces no opponents in
Kentucky, but voters there can select ‘uncommitted’ as an option) and
you have the potential for a less-than-friendly narrative regarding
Obama come Wednesday.”

The Daily Caller notes President Obama “has become the first political $1 billion man. He’s the first politician to take in that stratospheric number in donations during his political career.”

“His total take reached $1,017,892,305 in April, some nine years after he began his 2004 race for the Senate. Obama is widely expected to raise at least $300 million more before November.”