Charlie Cook: “There is a natural human tendency to believe that any major development,
no matter how long before an election, will be the last important
influence on said election. This theory is fine in the last days before
an election, but with almost a year to go, it is pretty unlikely that
the national political situation will suddenly become static for well
over 300 days.”
Quote of the Day
“If it doesn’t work, then good intentions are not enough.”
— Democratic strategist Al From, quoted by ABC News, on how Obamacare implementation problems threaten to undermine the Democratic Party’s case for government.
Where are the Independent Candidates?
First Read: “Today, there’s a very frustrated American public that’s disillusioned with the president, angry at an ineffective Congress, turned off by a seemingly intolerant Republican Party that’s unwilling to govern, and fed up with a Democratic Party that’s had difficulty governing. There’s a crisis in confidence and competence that’s hurting everyone, and that requires some serious soul-searching by Washington’s politicians and both major parties. Yes, perhaps President Obama’s low approval ratings enable the GOP to win back the Senate. And yes, perhaps the public’s dissatisfaction with the GOP — as well as the country’s changing demographics — make Democrats the front-runners to hold the White House in 2016.”
“But something larger is going on here, which could upend everything and produce unintended consequences. If there were serious independent candidates running for the House and Senate in 2014, they would get serious looks; interestingly, though, very few legitimate indie candidates have popped up yet. But don’t be surprised if by the spring of 2014, there are a slew of semi-serious indie candidates in enough places to wreak some havoc.”
Senate Control May Be Won in the South
Wall Street Journal: “The ability of Democrats to keep control of the Senate in 2014 will depend largely on elections in southern states… Three of the four most vulnerable Senate Democrats in the 2014 election are from the South.”
“Republicans believe Arkansas is their best shot at knocking off an incumbent, making Mr. Pryor a prime target in the battle for control of the chamber. The GOP needs to add six seats to win a majority in the Senate, an achievable but far-from-certain goal. It is hard to see how they could hit that mark if they can’t win here.”
First Read: “To win back the Senate in 2014, Republicans need to net six seats. And
here’s their path: win six of seven states, all of which Mitt Romney
carried in 2012 — Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina,
South Dakota, and West Virginia.”
Lawmakers Close to Budget Deal
House and Senate negotiators “are pushing to finalize a small-scale deal to set spending levels and replace sequester cuts for the next two years, a potential respite in the bitter budget wars consuming Congress,” Politico reports.
“The two congressional budget leaders — Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) — are considering a plan that would give relief to some of the domestic and defense programs most burdened by the sequester through 2015 by replacing those cuts with budgetary savings in other areas, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. New revenue through fee increases — not tax hikes — is likely.”
White House Back to Selling Obamacare
President Obama will launch a coordinated campaign by the White House, congressional Democrats and their outside allies to return attention to why the Affordable Care Act passed in first place, Politico reports.
“After two months of intense coverage of the botched HealthCare.gov rollout, Obama will host a White House event kicking off a three-week drive to refocus the public on the law’s benefits… The White House will take the lead in emphasizing a different benefit each day until the Dec. 23 enrollment deadline for Jan. 1 coverage. The daily message will be amplified through press events and social media by Democratic members of Congress, the Democratic National Committee, congressional campaign committees and advocacy organizations, officials said.”
Wonk Wire: On the Obamacare “To Do” List
History Shows Midterm Elections Tough for Democrats
Stu Rothenberg: “Democrats have had a nice run recently of interesting House recruits and new takeover opportunities resulting from open GOP seats. And yet, it probably won’t matter.”
“If history is any guide — and it usually is — the president’s recent problems have already overshadowed that good news for House Democrats and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, all but erasing any chances that the party can win back the House next year.”
Jobs Remain Top Priority for Most Voters
A new National Journal poll finds that by more than three to one, Americans said they would be “very pleased” or “somewhat pleased,” rather than “somewhat disappointed” or “very disappointed,” if President Obama and lawmakers worked together to create jobs — either by cutting taxes and regulations or by increasing federal spending on infrastructure projects.
“The survey is a wake-up call for Congress. Even as lawmakers have spent most of the year fighting over items ephemeral to the health of the economy, overwhelming numbers of voters would prefer they concentrate their efforts on boosting job growth.”
Radel Clings to Seat Despite Calls to Resign
Weeks after the news broke of his cocaine bust, Rep. Trey Radel (R-FL) “continues to cling to his seat in Congress in what could ultimately become a testament to the changing mores on Capitol Hill,” Roll Call reports.
“The Florida Republican, who checked himself into rehab last month, has faced his fair share of calls to resign — notably from home-state Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, and state GOP Chairman Lenny Curry. Some of his congressional colleagues from Florida also wonder why he is sticking around.”
Quote of the Day
“Prime Minister Chamberlain would have been proud after the West gave the snake oil salesman of the desert, Mr. Rouhani, exactly what he wanted: time and money to pursue his quest for nuclear intimidation.”
— Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX), quoted by The Hill, comparing the Obama administration’s short-term deal on Iran’s nuclear capability with former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s attempt to appease Nazi Germany.
The Great Mentioner
A useful term from the political dictionary: “The Great Mentioner”
Gray Will Seek Another Term
Ending weeks of speculation, Washington, DC Mayor Vincent Gray (D) announced that he would run for a second term, the Washington Post reports.
“Gray’s decision to run for reelection reshapes the District’s political landscape for the April 2014 Democratic primary. Three council members — Muriel Bowser (D-Ward 4), Jack Evans (D-Ward 2) and Tommy Wells (D-Ward 6) — had announced their plans as far back as March.”
Strange Bedfellows Fight Sequestration
Bloomberg: “The defense aerospace industry gave 60 percent of its donations to Republicans during the 2012 elections. The high-tech industry gave 59 percent of its contributions to the Democrats. Now, representatives of both industries are teaming up to push back on a common threat: U.S. budget cuts.”
Both sides agree that “sequestration cuts are jeopardizing the nation’s technological edge in
weapons systems and threatening the research and development that leads
to new industries and new jobs.”
No Challengers Yet for Booker
Herb Jackson: “It could be election fatigue, or maybe everyone is waiting for Governor Christie to anoint someone. But no New Jersey Republican has jumped into the race for U.S. Senate next year, despite all the talk in October about how Democrat Cory Booker will be vulnerable because he “only” won by 11 percentage points, instead of the 20 points some polls showed.”
Court Upholds Ban on Political Ads on Public Broadcasting
“An appeals court has upheld a ban on political advertising on public broadcasting — reversing an earlier ruling by members of the same court,” the Washington Post reports.
Republicans Will Not Link Funding to Obamacare Repeal
“If the U.S. government shuts down again in mid-January, it won’t be because House Republicans are demanding the repeal of the president’s health care law, in a repeat of the standoff that occurred earlier this fall,” the Huffington Post reports.
Said a senior House GOP aide: “There are no plans to tie a repeal vote to a government funding bill.”
Obama and Lawmakers to Sign Up for Obamacare
President Obama will sign up for health insurance through an Affordable Care Act exchange, Politico reports.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports some members of Congress “are about to get their own kind of sticker shock when they head to the new insurance exchanges. A few will get a price cut… a provision in the health law requires lawmakers to get their benefits alongside small-business employees for the first time, and that means lawmakers’ premiums will suddenly be tied to their age.”
The Vetting of Christie Begins
Firedoglake obtained documents under New Jersey’s Open Public Records Act which detail New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) career as a registered lobbyist.
