First Read: “It was less than two weeks ago when, before the first presidential debate in Denver, we wrote that Mitt Romney was facing a crucial moment in his campaign. It was coming right after President Obama’s convention bounce, the scrutiny over the 47% comment, and all the handwringing over the state of the Romney campaign. How quickly the narrative can change. Now it’s Obama facing a crucial moment — to fully turn the page on that first debate performance. The president isn’t behind, and he still holds more paths to 270 electoral votes. But he needs to stop Romney’s momentum and get it back on his side. Our bottom line: Tonight is all about suburban women; it has been Obama’s demographic firewall. Romney has made progress with them on his fav rating and on handling the economy, but not on ballot test. Tonight will tell us whether he continues to make progress.”

Boston Globe:
“With Super Bowl-size audiences tuning into what has become
a weekly political miniseries, President Obama cannot afford another
performance like the one he had in Denver — where even supporters said
he was lackluster and timid.”

A new Daily Kos/SEIU/Public Policy Polling survey shows Mitt Romney jumping to a four point lead over President Obama nationally among likely voters, 50% to 46%.

Romney also leads in the swing states, 50% to 47%.

The Gallup tracking poll also shows Romney leading 50% to 46%.

Ross Perot endorses Mitt Romney in a Des Moines Register op-ed:

“These are leadership qualities that are sorely needed in Washington
today. President Obama promised a great deal. He has had his chance. The
results are visible for all to see. It is time for a new beginning. It
is time for Mitt Romney.”

First Read: “Yes, this is one rich man endorsing another rich man. And Perot’s
politics have always been Republican leaning. But the issue Perot is
best known for — the deficit — is something that potentially plays
well in Iowa, with older voters who remember who Perot is. And so the
endorsement carries symbolic importance.”

It’s worth noting that just two weeks ago Perot said he would not make an endorsement.

The Obama campaign turns to Bill Clinton once again with a new video explaining how Mitt Romney’s tax plan doesn’t add up.

[Read more…]

A Center for Rural Strategies poll in 9 swing states finds Mitt Romney crushing President Obama among rural voters, 59% to 37%, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

Last month, a similar rural survey in the same battleground states had a smaller 51% to 38% margin for Romney.

Mark Halperin: “Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+. See the map above.”

“One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).”

Meanwhile, Harry Enten explores Romney’s possible, but more complicated, routes to victory.

The New York Times Magazine has a must-read profile of Paul Ryan and his quick rise through Republicans ranks.

“Ryan is gifted at shrouding a cutthroat ambition in sheepish nonchalance. It is a key political still — trying constantly to impress without looking as if you’re trying — and one that has eluded many politicians past and present. He is also deft at conveying precision and specificity without being the least bit precise or specific. He has honed his image carefully and promotes it relentlessly on the stump.”

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told CNN the buck stops with her when it comes to who is to blame for security ahead of a deadly assault on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya.

Said Clinton: “I take responsibility.”

She also insisted President Obama and Vice President Biden are not involved in security decisions adding, “I want to avoid some kind of political gotcha” just before an election.

Walter DeVries, a longtime aide to George Romney, “issued a harshly worded critique of Mitt Romney, accusing him of shifting political positions in ‘erratic and startling ways’ and failing to live up to the distinguished record of his father, the former governor of Michigan,” the New York Times reports.

De Vries, who worked for the senior Mr. Romney throughout the 1960s, wrote that Mitt Romney’s bid for the White House was “a far cry from the kind of campaign and conduct, as a public servant, I saw during the seven years I worked in George Romney’s campaigns and served him as governor.”

He added: “While it seems that Mitt would say and do anything to close a deal – or an election. George Romney’s strength as a politician and public officeholder was his ability and determination to develop and hold consistent policy positions over his life.”

The head of an Ohio charity says that the Romney campaign last week “ramrodded their way” into the group’s Youngstown soup kitchen so that Paul Ryan could get his picture taken washing dishes in the dining hall, the Washington Post reports.

Said Brian Antal: “The photo-op they did wasn’t even accurate. He did nothing. He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall.”

Rick Hasen: “The Supreme Court will soon decide whether to reverse a federal court ruling requiring the state of Ohio to let its counties decide whether to permit early voting during the weekend before Election Day. With the presidential race tight in Ohio, and the presidency potentially turning on the state’s electoral votes, the court’s decision could help determine who will win the White House. While the Obama campaign has a strong policy argument for the extension of early voting to include this final weekend, its constitutional claim is a major stretch.”

Mark Halperin has obtained the Memorandum of Understanding between the Obama and Romney campaigns setting the ground rules for the presidential debates.

Gawker: “The upshot: Both campaigns are terrified at anything even remotely spontaneous happening.”

[Read more…]

Here are the latest daily tracking polls for the presidential race:

Gallup: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, Romney 47%

Rand/American Life: Obama 50%, Romney 45%

Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 47%, Romney 45%

A new Pew Research poll finds 41% of voters surveyed say President Obama will do better in this week’s presidential debate, while 37% expect Mitt Romney to prevail.

This stands in stark contrast to expectations prior to the first presidential debate two weeks ago, which voters expected Obama to win by a 51% to 29% margin.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five points among likely voters in the nation’s 12 top battleground states, 51% to 46%.

Key finding: “As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.”

Washington Post: “Mitt Romney’s campaign said Monday that it had raised $170.4 million in the month of September, falling just short of the staggering $181 million monthly total reported by President Obama’s reelection campaign.”