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We interviewed Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report for the latest episode in our new podcast.
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Roll Call: “Just minutes after the swearing-in of the newest senator, New Jersey Democrat Cory Booker, the Senate dove headfirst back into a standoff over executive and judicial branch nominations.”
“Democrats failed to overcome, 56-42, a filibuster against the choice of Rep. Melvin Watt (D-NC) to become the top housing finance regulator, with Republicans also looking to block Patricia Ann Millett’s nomination to fill one of three vacant seats on the District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals.”
Harry Enten: “This year, we may have a new election night record for earliest announcement of the winners in an off-year following a presidential election… Christie is up by nearly 30 points in New Jersey, De Blasio is ahead by over 40 points in New York City and McAuliffe is leading by about 8 points in Virginia.”
“I went back over the past 40 years of election results to get an idea of how rare the snoozefest of 2013 is for the after-presidential-off-year election troika… Only 1977, 1985, and 2013 were near or above double digits in their closest race.”
“What separates 1985 and 2013 from 1977 is the fact that two of the races were or are going to be landslides. Even though none of the 1977 races were nail biters, they were all modestly competitive. None had margins of greater than 14pt. 1985 had – and 2013 looks to ultimately have – two races in which the winning candidate won by more than 25pt.”
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A new Public Policy Polling survey in Minnesota finds Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) with a 51% approval rating and leading each of his possible Republican opponents by anywhere from 10 to 13 points.
Franken tops Chris Dahlberg (R), 49% to 39%, beats Mike McFadden (R), 49% to 38%, is ahead of Jim Abeler (R),m 50% to 39%, and leads Monti Moreno (R), 49% to 36%.
A new Hampton University poll in Virginia shows Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the race for governor by six points, 42% to 36%, with Robert Sarvis (L) at 12%.
While each Virginia poll may fluctuate, it’s been months since Cuccinelli led in one of them.
First Read: “For his entire presidency, he had been able to float above much of the dissatisfaction with Washington, as well as the unhappiness with the state of the economy. (Perhaps the public kept holding out hope that the candidate many fell in love with in 2008 would eventually change Washington.) But that’s no longer the case. The NBC/WSJ pollsters argue that no single reason explains Obama’s lower poll standing. Rather, they attribute it to the accumulation of setbacks since the summer — allegations of spying by the National Security Agency, the debate over Syria’s chemical weapons, the government shutdown and now intense scrutiny over the problems associated with the health-care law’s federal website and its overall implementation. At some point, a boat can’t keep accumulating water — or it starts to sink. And that’s what is happening with Obama right now.”
Norm Ornstein:
“It is becoming increasingly obvious that the Supreme Court decision in
Shelby County v. Holder, which eviscerated the Voting Rights Act, is
leading to a new era of voter suppression that parallels the pre-1960s
era–this time affecting not just African-Americans but also
Hispanic-Americans, women, and students, among others.”
“Confronted with missteps in his own administration, President
Obama has frequently pleaded ignorance — suggesting he could not be at
fault about things he did not know,” AP reports .
“It’s an argument with clear benefits but also inherent risks
for the White House. Used too often, the tactic emboldens critics who
claim the president is incompetent, detached and not fully in control.”
Michael O’Brien:
“Obama’s seemingly hands-off management style is
raising fresh questions and concerns that could upend his second-term
legacy. Claims by the administration and other Democrats that Obama
didn’t know about sensitive matters in his own administration — such as
problems with the health care website and revelations of National
Security Agency surveillance on foreign leaders — have many in
Washington scratching their heads.”
Politico: “Extending an olive branch to GOP senators, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is privately making it clear he won’t engage in the Senate Conservatives Fund’s hardball tactics to defeat his colleagues in their primary races. At a closed-door lunch meeting of Senate Republicans Wednesday, the freshman conservative told his colleagues that he would not intervene in their 2014 primary fights or fundraise for the controversial outside group. Cruz added that the SCF’s decision to try to defeat sitting GOP senators in their primaries was its alone.”
Why the turnaround? Kyle Klondik notes that “in presidential nomination
contests, the elites — elected officials and party leaders — are
historically more important than the grassroots.”
Rafael Cruz, the father of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), is on video speaking on behalf of his son during his Senate campaign last year, calling President Obama an “outright Marxist” who “seeks to destroy all concept of God,” and urging the crowd to send Obama “back to Kenya.”
Coming early next year: HRC: State Secrets and the Rebirth of Hillary Clinton by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes.
Politico has the first nugget: “President Barack Obama asked Hillary Clinton several times to stay on as his secretary of state during a Nov. 2012 ride aboard Air Force One, but she told him it was time for her to move on, a new book reveals.”
Stuart Stevens: “When you repeat something of substance you know not to be true, you’re lying. And that’s the simple reality: one of ‘the most memorable’ promises of the Obama presidency was simply a lie.”
“Why did he do it? The obvious answer is probably the correct one: he didn’t tell the truth because he feared the consequences of telling the truth. If people knew they might lose their coverage, it would have made the Affordable Care Act more difficult to pass. And like a lot of falsehoods, once you start, it’s hard to stop.”
“What Obama did was far more deliberate than Nixon’s obfuscation on Vietnam. Nixon at least never claimed to have a ‘secret plan,’ though to the degree that he was seen as having a plan, he no doubt benefited. But Obama simply repeated a direct and clear lie in direct and clear terms over and over.”
“If I didn`t care so much about our country, I would hope he will get the Republican nomination for president, because that would be the end of the Republican Party.”
— Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), quoted by The Hill, on Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
New York Times: “Here and nationally, the Democratic Party is enjoying something of a boomlet in newly declared candidacies for the House. Since Oct. 1, five candidates have lined up to contest Republican-held seats, with at least four more in the wings, Democratic officials say. Almost all say they are driven to run — ostensibly, at least — by disgust over the shutdown, first espoused by Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, and embraced by Tea Party Republicans in the House and, eventually, most others as well.”
Glen Bolger: “Two polls we conducted this weekend already shows some signs of life for the Republican party. This is not to minimize the challenges facing the GOP. Those challenges are significant. But perhaps those who wish to bury Republicans now in anticipation of a poor performance in the November 2014 elections are suffering from premature miscalculation.”
“Both surveys underscore the current political hit that the President is taking… The national discussion is shifting away from the combined shutdown/debt default deadline debacle to the White House Triple Crown of the failing Affordable Care Act, the unseemly listening in on our allies, and the President’s blissful unawareness of anything going on in his Administration because he’s too busy golfing.”
“These rapidly shifting data suggest Republicans would do well to stay out of the Administration’s way and let it continue to implode. It’s time for the GOP to stop shooting itself in the foot with the American voter and enjoy the view as Democrats take over that role.”
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds the popular discontent that engulfed Republicans amid the government shutdown has now washed over President Obama, whose job approval rating has sunk to an all-time low.
“Obama saw his job approval fall to 42%, with 51% of respondents disapproving of his performance as president. That marked a drop in his approval rating from 47% in early October and 53% at the end of 2012.”
“At the same time, more Americans now view Mr. Obama negatively than positively, for the first time since he emerged as a national political candidate.”
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds a majority of Americans said they belonged to neither party while 30% said they would prefer an independent or third-party candidate for Congress, more than wanted to vote for a Republican candidate.
Other remarkable findings:
The public’s view of the Republican Party has reached another all-time low in the survey, with just 22% seeing the GOP in a positive light and 53% viewing it negatively.
63% of voters want to replace their own member of Congress, which is the highest percentage ever recorded on this question that dates back to 1992,
Anthony Weiner told GQ that the New York Times Magazine writer who did a profile of him before launching his political comeback bid wasn’t “tough enough” on him.
Said Weiner: “The problem was that the story was completely different from what we thought would be written. I thought there’d be thousands of questions about the sexting. But there wasn’t a lot of conversation about that. We had a guy who wasn’t tough enough. We needed someone to just tear away at me. And not someone who would do something sympathetic.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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