A new Rasmussen survey in Michigan shows Rick Santorum is holding on to a small lead over Mitt Romney, 38% to 34%. They are followed by Ron Paul at 10% support and Newt Gingrich at 9%.

In addition to the Ron Paul campaign’s latest TV ad blasting Rick Santorum, NBC News finds more evidence of an alliance between Mitt Romney and the Texas congressman: The Paul camp is now passing around opposition research on Rick Santorum.

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Larry Kudlow: “Team Romney tells me there will be a bolder tax-cut plan released either at the debate tomorrow night (if Mitt gets it in) or more formally at his Detroit Economic Club speech on Friday. I’m embargoed from releasing details until tomorrow. But I can say that the new plan will be across-the-board with supply-side incentives from rate reduction, and that it will help small-business owners as well as everyone else.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Washington finds Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney in the state’s upcoming GOP caucuses, 38% to 27%. They are followed by Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 12%.

Key finding: “Gingrich’s continued presence in the state is a boost to Romney. If he pulled out before Washington 59% of his supporters say they’d move to Santorum, compared to only 13% who would go to Romney.”

The caucuses will be held on March 3.

A new YouGov poll finds a big difference between the way Democrats and Republicans think about tax fairness — but also shows that independent voters side with Democrats.

Jonathan Bernstein: “The dilemma for Republican politicians here is clear: their primary voters are pushing them into a position on taxes which embraces a version of fairness that few outside the GOP base share. So something such as Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan can be wildly popular among Republican voters, but electoral poison in November. Repeat across enough issues, and you wind up with a Mitt Romney, backing his way into a presidential nomination of party that doesn’t really like him very much while at the same time taking positions that could hurt him in November. For Republicans, there doesn’t appear to be any easy solution.”

“Just as the recovery is finally looking real, surging fuel prices are once again looming as a major threat to the financial health of U.S. consumers and the broader economy,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“That could potentially sting President Obama’s reelection efforts as well — with Republican primary hopefuls already blaming the Democratic incumbent for higher prices at the pump.”

First Read: “The politics of gas prices are always dangerous. After all, this is something that almost every American consumer sees, and every news organization (local or national) is ready to cover it (and usually LEAD their broadcasts with it). The one silver lining for the Obama administration: Given that gas prices were at highs just last summer, were consumers already pricing this in their budgets?”

The volatile Republican presidential primary has given President Obama
an opportunity to take full advantage of an incumbent’s fundraising
advantage, according to The Fix.

“Obama’s
campaign had $76 million cash on hand at the end of the month; the four
GOP candidates had less than $13 million combined. Even better for
Obama is the fact that Romney’s opponents closed the fundraising gap
significantly, which will reduce Romney’s spending advantage going
forward.”

Meanwhile, The Hill
notes that Mitt Romney started January “with $19.9 million on hand and
ended it with $7.7 million in the bank, as expenditures were nearly
triple the amount the campaign was able to raise… The pro-Romney
super-PAC, Restore Our Future, which by law cannot coordinate with the
campaign, also announced its January fundraising figures on Monday,
taking in nearly $7 million while spending twice that amount.”

A new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds Newt Gingrich with a slim lead over his GOP presidential rivals at 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Rick Santorum at 23% and Ron Paul at 12%.

The Georgia primary is on Super Tuesday March 6.

First Read: “The next seven days until Michigan’s primary may very well be the most important of Mitt Romney’s political life. They could determine if he becomes the GOP nominee; if he does not; and if we might enter — as we’ve described it before — the political equivalent of Thunderdome, with either a ‘brokered’ or ‘contested’ convention in August. All of these things are on the line for Romney next Tuesday. And in between, he will have two big opportunities to right his campaign’s ship: 1) Wednesday night’s debate in Arizona and 2) Friday’s economic speech in Detroit.”

David Challian: “Nothing matters more for Romney than coming out on top after the votes are counted next Tuesday, but getting there will likely require a winning debate performance on Wednesday night in Arizona and a rousing economic speech in Detroit on Friday… This is the kind of week for which Romney has been spending the better part of the last six years preparing. To regain the upper hand in this nomination battle, Romney will need to turn that preparation into flawless execution.”

A new We Ask America poll in Arizona shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%.

A new CNN/Time poll shows Romney leading Santorum by just four points, 36% to 32%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and
Ron Paul at 6%.

The Arizona primary is on February 28.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) defended himself after opponents claimed that he isn’t qualified to run for office because he doesn’t actually live in Indiana, WRTV-TV reports.

“Lugar said he and his wife sold their house in Indianapolis because the only way they could afford to keep the family together and be part of their sons’ school and after-school activities was to move to Washington, D.C. full time and buy a home there.”

Most interesting: “Lugar said he isn’t sure what address is on his Indiana driver’s license but presumes it was from the house he no longer owns.”

The Indiana Election Commission is set to meet this week to consider Lugar’s situation.

As Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) gears up for a U.S. Senate bid, the Miami Herald runs a brutal piece on his problems with personal finances, his ex-wife and bar fights.

One notable incident included baseball player Ron Gant: “Gant claims a drunken Mack repeatedly bumped into him, precipitating a fight. Mack claims Gant attacked him for no reason. During the melee, Gant head-locked Mack. Mack testified that he couldn’t breath. So he starting striking and grabbing the ball player’s crotch. At a certain point, the club’s bouncers got involved and Mack broke his ankle. He sued Gant, who was held liable. But a jury awarded no damages.”

A new Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll in Michigan shows Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum, 32% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 7%. Another 22% of voters remain undecided.

Eight days ago, Santorum had a 9% lead and twelve days before that Romney led by 15% in a very volatile race.

Rick Santorum now holds a 10 point lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll of registered Republicans nationally.

New financial disclosures shows that Super PACs and other groups “dominated the race for the Republican presidential nomination last month, raising and spending tens of millions of dollars outside the traditional campaign system and playing a key role in extending an already tumultuous contest,” the Washington Post reports.

New York Times: “The spending reports revealed the breadth and power of super PACs as the campaign hits a critical and perhaps decisive period, with outside groups poised to pick up a growing share of political spending during the costly primary battle that lies ahead.”