Reuters
reports that Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), chairman of the powerful House
Financial Services Committee, defeated state Sen. Scott Beason and two
other primary challengers in a closely watched race amid an investigation into whether Bachus violated insider trading laws.
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Gingrich Now Just Trying to Block Romney
Patricia Murphy notes Newt Gingrich tipped his hand last night at “his campaign’s real strategy, which is no longer to win to nomination outright but to make Mitt Romney lose by denying him the 1,144 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination before the Republican convention in August.”
“Gingrich has grown increasingly bitter toward Romney throughout the campaign, as the former Massachusetts governor has unloaded a barrage of attacks against the former speaker and, Gingrich believes, hurt his showings at the polls in the process.”
National Journal quotes Gingrich: “Governor Romney will get at most one out of every three delegates. Once again he will fall dramatically short … I think that the odds against his being able to get 1,144 delegates is very, very high. I think he is more likely to be a front-runner who ends up not finishing the race.”
Romney Wins Hawaii Caucuses
Mitt Romney won Hawaii’s first-ever Republican presidential caucus Tuesday, taking 45% of the vote, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.
Romney was followed by Rick Santorum at 25%, Ron Paul at 19% and Newt Gingrich at 11%. The four were competing for 17 of the state’s 20 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa.
Hatch Says This Will Be His Last Campaign
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that this
would be his last campaign and his final term in the U.S.
Senate, KCSG-TV reports.
Hatch is currently 77 and would be 84 in 2018, the year he would again be up for reelection.
Mitt Romney and the Dog Food Problem
Paul Begala: “Let me be the first to call on Mitt Romney to get out of the race. By placing third in Alabama and Mississippi, losing to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in both states, Romney has gone from inevitable to unelectable. Somebody strap him to the roof of one of his Cadillacs and drive him off to one of his many mansions.”
“One of the great legends of political consulting is the Dog Food Problem: an apocryphal tale of a company that had the best packaging, the best advertising, the best marketing. But there was only one problem: the dog wouldn’t eat it. Forevermore we should no longer call it a Dog Food Problem. We should call it a Mitt Romney Problem.”
Now and Then
Romney Would End Planned Parenthood
In an interview with KSDK-TV, Mitt Romney said he would eliminate any federal funding of Planned Parenthood in an effort to reduce the national debt.
Said Romney: “Planned Parenthood, we’re going to get rid of that.”
Tonight’s Primary Results
Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8 pm ET. Caucuses in Hawaii begin at 2 am ET.
A win by Mitt Romney in either or both of the two Southern states voting today would seriously undermine his two primary rivals, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
Nate Silver notes Southern states “have a reputation for counting their vote slowly.”
This is interesting: The Washington Post reports Romney is not holding a celebration tonight and is instead watching results from a hotel room in New York City.
Exit polls show Santorum leading by five points in Alabama, Romney leading by five points in Mississippi. No network is willing to make a projection based on these numbers.
Washington Examiner: “Newt Gingrich’s campaign has just sent out a memo that reveals (to no
one’s surprise) a defiant determination to stay in the race until the
end. If you read between the lines, it looks like he’s almost conceding
tonight’s races in advance.”
NBC News projects Santorum will win in Alabama.
Fox News projects Santorum will win in Mississippi.
Expect the narrative that Romney can’t reach the 1,144 delegates to gain steam in the coming days.
The Illinois primary on March 20 will be an epic battle between Romney and Santorum.
Poll Finds Obama Approval Up
For the first time since early July, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds more Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing than disapprove, 50% to 48%.
Some other polls have shown a recent dip in Obama’s approval rating, and linked that to rising gasoline prices.
A new Bloomberg poll shows Obama’s approval at 48%.
Bill Would Require Candidates to Take Drug Tests
Candidates for Oklahoma state or local offices would have to take a test for illegal drugs before they could file for the posts under an amendment to a bill passed by the state House of Representatives, Tulsa World reports.
“The measure was the Democrats’ response to a Republican-backed bill that would require adults receiving welfare assistance to undergo drug tests.”
Democrats Recruiting Former GOP Lawmaker in Michigan
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is recruiting former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-MI) to run against Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI), The Hill reports.
Said Schwarz: “We talked and have had very pleasant conversations about it. The DCCC is correctly looking for a candidate to run in the 7th district because there certainly would be a stark contrast between Congressman Walberg and a viable, credible Democratic candidate.”
GOP War on Women
A new MoveOn video clearly highlights the problem Republicans could have with women in this year’s elections.
Palin Challenges Obama to a Debate
Sarah Palin responded on Facebook to President Obama’s reelection campaign after footage of her was used in a fundraising video.
Said Palin: “I’m not running for any office, but I’m more than happy to accept the dubious honor of being Barack Obama’s ‘enemy of the week’ if that includes the opportunity to debate him on the issues Americans are actually concerned about.”
She added: “I’m willing and free to discuss these issues with the President anywhere, anytime.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Our democracy has been hacked. It no longer works, in the main, to serve the interests of our people.”
— Al Gore, quoted by CNN.
Romney Likely to Win More Delegates Tonight
Regardless of the final popular vote result in Alabama and Mississippi, Harry Enten notes the the net delegate count in each state is likely to be pretty even.
“Mississippi’s delegates are going to be split proportionally, and we’re probably looking at a split of nine delegates for Gingrich, nine for Romney, and seven for Santorum. Alabama has a ‘top two’ primary in each congressional district (that is, the winner in each district will get two delegates and second-placed candidate will get one), while the state-wide delegates will be apportioned proportionally. Determining who will win which districts is difficult in such a close state-wide race. Romney’s probably going to come in third in the more rural areas, but he could win the districts around Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile. My estimate is that he’ll take 14-17 delegates state-wide, while Santorum and Gingrich take 11-20 delegates each.”
That said, Romney will still likely end the night with more delegates than his rivals.
“Though not subject to much media focus, Romney’s going to do very well in the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses. American Samoa is 30% Mormon (the most Mormon-dominated contest this year, outside of Utah)… Hawaii’s delegates will be divided more evenly because its allocation
system is proportional.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Had he failed in that audacious mission, he would’ve been a one-term president.”
— Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by The Hill, on President Obama ordering the mission to kill Osama bin Laden.
How Sarah Palin Ruined Politics
Richard Cohen notes that since Sarah Palin stepped on the national political stage we’ve been subjected to “a deluge of dysfunctional presidential candidates. They do not lie with quite the conviction of Palin, but they are sometimes her match in ignorance. As with Palin, it seemed hardly to matter… Palin is no longer an anomaly.”
“So far, the Palin effect has been limited to the GOP. Surely, though, there lurks in the Democratic Party potential candidates who have seen Palin and taken note. Experience, knowledge, accomplishment — these no longer may matter. They will come roaring out of the left proclaiming a hatred of all things Washington, including compromise. The movie had it right. Sarah Palin changed the game.”
Quote of the Day
“I think he’ll have the most delegates but not a majority.”
— Newt Gingrich, in an interview on Fox News, suggesting Mitt Romney will not win the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP presidential nomination.
