First Read: “Perhaps the most important number in the NBC-Marist poll was what happens when Santorum is removed from the race. Santorum’s vote splits off evenly if he’s removed, and Romney has an even WIDER lead over Gingrich, 49% to 33%. So, Gingrich can’t make the argument that if conservatives weren’t divided he would win. The numbers just don’t bear that out. What’s really interesting — Santorum probably could argue that if GINGRICH weren’t in the race, he’d have a better chance against Romney. Santorum’s image is as good as it’s been since the campaign began.”

With the Florida Republican presidential primary wrapping up tomorrow
and likely to vote overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney, the candidates will
now turn to the seven contests in February. The AP notes, however, that Romney’s campaign has been laying the groundwork in these states for months.

“Romney has consistently dominated his opponents in fundraising,
reporting $19 million in his campaign account at the end of December.
And his campaign distributed paid staff on the ground — months ago, in
some cases — to bolster a growing network of local supporters. They
include a combined 380 Republican officials across February voting
states, eight members of Congress among them… While his opponents have
struggled to compete in one state at a time, Romney has had paid staff
in Nevada since June. He has already begun advertising there. More
recently, the campaign dispatched staff to Colorado and Arizona. Top New
Hampshire surrogates are headed to Maine in the coming days.”

The New York Times looks into former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) lack of an endorsement of Mitt Romney.

Troubled by Romney’s immigration rhetoric, Bush “voiced his concern directly to Mr. Romney, two people close to him said, urging him to moderate his oratory and views to avoid a collapse of support among Hispanic voters in the general election. In his conversations about an endorsement, Mr. Bush also conveyed to Mr. Romney and his allies that his double-digit defeat in the South Carolina primary did not warrant an endorsement and he needed to ‘earn’ it.”

“I think you can expect advisers to think that the work of advisers is very, very important, but frankly, I think if you’re to go back and look at where the sentiment changed, it was with the debates.”

— Mitt Romney, in an interview on the Today Show, dismissing the role of his advisers in his bounce back after losing the South Carolina primary.

[Read more…]

An internal Newt Gingrich campaign memo obtained by the Daily Caller claims “this race is just getting started.”

The memo stresses that Mitt Romney currently has just 33 of the 1144 delegates needed (Gingrich has 25 of 1144).

In addition, more than 20% of the available delegates (467) will be awarded on Super Tuesday March 6, 2012, and the memo notes that, one of the Super Tuesday states is Georgia, with 76 delegates at stake. To put that in perspective, “even if Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, he will only have 83 total delegates; Newt’s home state could effectively cancel out his entire delegate count to date.”

Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) tells The Fix that “he is buying property in his former home state of Nebraska, but that it doesn’t mean he will seek a return to the Senate in the Cornhusker State.”

“Kerrey left Nebraska after retiring from the Senate and at one point flirted with the idea of running for mayor of his new home, New York City, where he headed up the New School university.. That’s something Republicans are likely to use against him if he opts to run for retiring Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) seat. But if he does run, Kerrey will have a Nebraska address from which to do it. A senator must live in the state he or she represents.”

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has a 14 point lead over Newt Gingrich, 43% to 29%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both at 11%. Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.

A SurveyUSA poll finds Romney tops Gingrich by 15 points, 41% to 26%, with Santorum and Paul at 12% each.

A We Ask America poll shows Romney crushing Gingrich by 22 points, 50% to 28%, with Santorum at 12% and Paul at 11%.

A Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney leads Gingrich by seven points, 39% to 32%, with Santorum at 14% and Paul at 11%.

A InsiderAdvantage poll says the race is down to just five points with Romney leading Gingrich, 36% to 31%, followed by Santorum and Paul each at 12%.

A Suffolk University poll finds Romney ahead of Gingrich by 20 points, 47% to 27%, with Santorum at 12% and Paul at 9%.

The New York Times looks at how Mitt Romney set aside his focus on President Obama to treat Newt Gingrich “as its chief obstacle, realizing that a loss here in Florida could cripple the campaign.”

“Breaking into teams, they divided duties for a new plan to put unrelenting pressure on Mr. Gingrich, hoping to make him angry enough to throw him off track and remind voters about the most unflattering aspects of a record forgotten during a decade in which he solidified his status as a wise man in the party.”

Craig Crawford: “Romney proved something in Florida. He’s all about psychological
warfare, and his team knows how to wage it. Mitt’s operatives sized up
the profile of their foe, Newt Gingrich, found his hot buttons and
jammed them until he squealed like a stuck pig.”

Mark Halperin: “Romney and his team have recovered in Florida by returning to attack mode and keeping the pressure on Gingrich. They have flooded the airwaves with TV and radio ads, released a phalanx of Establishment supporters to engage with the media, sent pro-Romney members of Congress to rattle Gingrich at his own campaign events, and debuted a more aggressive Romney on the stump and in the most recent debate. Even Romney’s most optimistic backers could not have anticipated how thoroughly the former Speaker would be thrown off message by their assault.”

Paul Begala: “If his predecessor cursed Obama by handing him a depression and two wars, the Good Lord has blessed him with the weakest field of opponents in memory. I stand by my early assessment: when I look at the economy, I think Obama can’t win, but when I look at the Republicans, I think he can’t lose. The economy is starting to get better; the Republicans aren’t. The president has moved to the populist center, smoothly co-opting the legitimate grievances of the Occupy Wall Street movement and ensuring that he wouldn’t face a primary challenge from the left. ‘Barack’ means blessing in Swahili. Perhaps ‘Obama’ means luckier than a dog with two tongues.”

Newt Gingrich has been outspent on the Florida airwaves by a nearly $12 million, Politico reports.

“That’s just the differential in paid-media spending, so it doesn’t include Romney’s edge in field operations, mail, et cetera. And Romney’s advantage isn’t likely to go away in the primary, though the general election is an entirely different story.”

A new Rasmussen survey in Florida shows Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich by 16 points, 44% to 28%, with Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 10%.

A forthcoming We Ask America poll in Florida shows Romney ahead by 22 points.

Former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs “is back on the Obama payroll as a roving surrogate and strategic consultant for the president’s reelection effort,” Politico reports.

“The contract represents a ‘formalization’ of the relationship between the Chicago-based campaign and Gibbs, who has had an informal relationship with the campaign since last May. It’s not clear how much he’ll be paid, but that’s what quarterly campaign filings are for.”

Newt Gingrich insisted the Republican presidential race would continue for “four or five months” even if he loses the Florida primary this week.

John Heilemann: “Pledges to continue the fight unabated in the face of harsh and/or humiliating outcomes are staples of presidential campaigns. And they are also patently meaningless. (Please recall Jon Huntsman’s feigned brio on the night of the New Hampshire primary — and his departure from the race a few days later.) But in Gingrich’s case, he might be serious, so much has he come to despise Romney and the Republican Establishment that has brought down on him a twenty-ton shithammer in Florida, and so convinced is he of his own Churchillian greatness and world-historical destiny. The same antic, manic, lunatic bloody-mindedness that has made him such a rotten candidate in the Sunshine State may be enough to keep him the race a good long time.”

“I think that the election will be substantially closer than the two polls that came out this morning. When you add the two conservatives together we clearly beat Romney,” Mr. Gingich said. “I think Romney’s got a very real challenge trying to get a majority at the convention.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, adding that the GOP presidential race is “going to be a straight-out contest for the next four or five months.”

A new NBC/Marist poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney on his way to a decisive victory in the state’s GOP presidential primary.

Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42% to 27%, followed by Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 11%. Just 4% said they were undecided.

A new American Research Group poll shows Romney leading Gingrich by 11 points, 43% to 32%, followed by Santorum at 11% and Paul at 8%.

Nate Silver notes that about one-third of Floridians have already voted in the GOP presidential primary.

“Since Mr. Gingrich only led Mr. Romney for a few fleeting days in the polls, that means that Mr. Romney should have banked an advantage, and that Mr. Gingrich would need to win by perhaps 5 or 10 points on Election Day to claim the state. That could also lessen the impact of late-breaking developments in the news cycle — like Mr. Gingrich receiving the endorsement of Herman Cain.”