William Galston looks at the Electoral map and concludes “we’re likely to know quite a bit about the outcome fairly early on election night. If Romney loses Florida, the contest is over. If Obama loses Virginia, he needs to run the table. And if he goes down to defeat in both Virginia and New Hampshire, he’d be on track to lose the election — unless he could replace their electoral votes by hanging onto North Carolina. If not, Obama’s reelection would hinge on the most traditional of all pivots — the Buckeye state. This year, we may well know the name of the next president before we cross the Mississippi.”

Arizona’s leading election official, Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R), “won’t be around for one of the state’s most important elections,” the Arizona Republic reports.

Bennett “will be hobnobbing with other politicians and delegates at the Republican National Convention in Tampa instead of overseeing today’s primary election, in which Arizona voters will pick partisan contenders for U.S. Senate, Congress, the state Legislature and local governments.”

The marquee matchup today is between two House Republican freshmen elected in 2010, Rep. Ben Quayle (R-AZ) and Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ).

Republican convention planners appear to have a surprise planned for those tuning in Thursday night, the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Buried deep in the convention schedule released Monday is a vague reference to a mystery speaker scheduled for the event’s final evening. ‘To Be Announced’ has a prime speaking slot late in the Thursday program.”

ABC News: “Top Romney advisors claim they have been left in the dark about a mystery speaker who may address the convention on Thursday night.”

A new CBS News poll shows a very close presidential race with President Obama barely edging Mitt Romney among registered voters, 46% to 45%.

Key finding: “Only 41% of Americans said Romney understands their needs and
problems, compared to 54% who feel Mr. Obama understands their
needs and problems.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds Linda McMahon (R) edging Rep. Chris Murphy (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 46%.

Said pollster Douglas Schwartz: “Her edge is due to her double- digit lead among independent voters and being close among women, a group she struggled with in her 2010 run.”

In the presidential race, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by just seven points, 52% to 45%.

President Obama’s campaign slaps back at the Romney’s campaign use of his “You didn’t build that” line with a new video focused on his time at Bain Capital: “You didn’t build that. You destroyed it.”

[Read more…]

CNN: “In most presidential races this close, it is a battle for the undecideds and independents. Pre-convention interviews with both Republican and Democratic delegates suggest this year might be more like trench warfare — firing up the party faithful, starting in Tampa and Charlotte, to mobilize a high grassroots voter turnout in November.”

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) has agreed to play the role of President Obama in debate prep sessions with Mitt Romney, two GOP sources tell CNN.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidate Tom Smith (R) “inadvertently waded into the war of words over rape and abortion on Monday — the very issue his party has been trying to steer clear of these days,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“Asked about his stance on abortion, Smith said he opposes it, with no exceptions. He then seemed to compare a woman’s decision to have a child outside of marriage to having one from rape.”

Politics PA has audio of the exchange.

Philip Klein: “All credentialed media checking into the Republican National Convention are being given a swag bag featuring brochures and items from various sponsors such as sunglasses and a pocket fan. But the bag also contains a copy of the original hardcover version of Mitt Romney’s book No Apology, in which he suggested his approach to health care in Massachusetts could be accomplished in the rest of the country.”

The paperback version, which came out early last year, completely revised the section on his health care plan.

A new Pew Research survey finds more Americans express interest in learning about what’s in the Republican party platform than in the speeches by either Mitt Romney or his running mate.

About half of the public (52%) is interested in learning about the Republican Party’s platform, while 44% are interested in Romney’s acceptance speech and about the same percentage (46%) in Ryan’s convention speech.

President Obama gave an interview to Glamour magazine that will appear in the November issue, WWD reports.

“A woman’s magazine like Glamour would not traditionally be in play for an interview with the President — first ladies have been more their turf — but agreeing to the interview is a mark of changing media strategies. The Obama campaign has recently been exploring alternative news outlets to press their message — ESPN Magazine, People magazine and Entertainment Tonight have all scored interviews, much to the dismay of the White House press corps, who have not enjoyed the usual privilege of questioning the President since Aug. 19.”

A new Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll in Florida shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by four points among likely voters, 50% to 46%.

“Obama’s edge in Florida is bolstered by women voters, among whom he’s beating Romney, 54%-42%, and by nonwhite voters, with whom he boasts a 70%-29% advantage. There are signs the incumbent is stitching together the same demographic coalitions that helped him capture Florida’s 29 electoral votes four years ago.”

More details on the poll are available in the CNN/Time Convention Floor Pass app.

A new Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll in North Carolina finds President Obama and Mitt Romney locked in a virtual dead heat with
Romney up 48% to 47% among likely voters.

More details on the poll are available in the CNN/Time Convention Floor Pass app.

Meanwhile, a new SurveyUSA poll finds Obama and Romney tied at 43%.

Democrats bought a digital billboard facing the Tampa Bay Times Forum where Republicans are holding their national convention, BuzzFeed reports.

An image hitting Mitt Romney on outsourcing jobs flashes every 7.5 seconds.