A new Dan Jones & Associates poll of Utah Republican state delegates shows Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is on the cusp winning 60% at this weekend’s state Republican Party Convention, and thus winning his record-setting seventh nomination.
It Hatch gets 60% at the convention, he’ll avoid a June 26 Republican primary against Dan Liljenquist (R).
Howard Kurtz: “In politics, the flip-flopper label is deemed deadly, the fingering of a candidate with no fixed principles. But I suspect that, with swing voters at least, it helps Romney. If voters believe he was just throwing red meat to voracious primary voters — and that the real Mitt would govern as a sensible man of the center-right — the damage of the last few months could be mitigated.”
Jon Karl takes a look at the possible contenders to be Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate.
Top Tier: Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush
Second Tier: Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Bob McDonnell, Paul Ryan
Women: Kelly Ayotte, Mary Fallin, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez
Others: John Thune, Jim DeMint, Tim Pawlenty
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Tom Friedman urges New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president this year as an independent.
“Bloomberg doesn’t have to win to succeed — or even stay in the race to the very end. Simply by running, participating in the debates and doing respectably in the polls — 15 to 20 percent — he could change the dynamic of the election and, most importantly, the course of the next administration, no matter who heads it. By running on important issues and offering sensible programs for addressing them — and showing that he had the support of the growing number of Americans who describe themselves as independents — he would compel the two candidates to gravitate toward some of his positions as Election Day neared. And, by taking part in the televised debates, he could impose a dose of reality on the election that would otherwise be missing. Congress would have to take note.”
A must-read: Do Not Ask What Good We Do: Inside the U.S. House of Representatives by Robert Draper.
A new Tribune Review/Susquehanna Research survey finds Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) leading Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA) in their primary showdown, 43% to 39%.
The winner will face Keith Rothfus (R) in the fall election.
Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) plans to air “positive” television ads in the coming weeks “as he looks to bolster his approval ratings and remind viewers of Virginia’s successes following a spate of bad publicity,” the Washington Post reports.
McDonnell is term-limited and can’t run for re-election in Virginia but the move indicates he’s very serious about boosting his image in a key battleground state in advance of Mitt Romney’s running mate selection.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) may be rooting for the Red Sox against the Yankees this weekend, but Yankees president Randy Levine donated the maximum $2,500 to the senator’s re-election campaign last month, the Boston Herald reports.
“That’s right, the commander of the Evil Empire is helping to pay for all those Brown ads championing his support of the Red Sox.”
“Many progressive donors think President Obama has it in the bag. But he doesn’t even have it in the shopping cart yet, much less in the bag.”
— Paul Begala, in an interview with Greg Sargent, saying Democratic donors need to step up.
Charles Mahtesian
believes that Rep. Allen West (R-FL), best known for his strong Tea
Party affiliation and controversial attacks on Democrats, is likely to
run for president in 2016 or 2020.
“The conservative congressman
hasn’t explicitly said as much, but he’s following a path blazed by
Michele Bachmann, Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul… Thanks to Internet and
direct mail fundraising and the national platform offered by cable news
shows, even a House backbencher can now build a well-financed national
following. And Barack Obama’s victory, just four years removed from the
Illinois state Senate, suggests the boundaries surrounding the question
of office-holding experience have been erased.”
Bill Clinton’s “recent endorsements in a handful of House primaries have conjured up memories of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, as he has sought to reward his wife’s supporters and candidates with loyalties to the couple,” Roll Call reports.
Said one Democratic fundraiser: “There’s nobody in this business that keeps score like the Clintons.”
Blue Dog Democrats representing the conservative wing of the Democratic Party are close to extinction, reports Politico, as the 2012 election season promises to further thin their ranks.
“Of
the 24 remaining Blue Dogs, five are not seeking reelection. More than a
half-dozen others are facing treacherous contests in which their
reelection hopes are in jeopardy. It’s a rough time to occupy the right
wing of the Democratic Party… Redistricting is at the root of the Blue
Dog problem. The once-in-a-decade line-drawing has forced some of them
to compete for seats that have become even less friendly to Democrats —
and those seats weren’t very friendly to begin with. Utah Rep. Jim
Matheson, Georgia Rep. John Barrow and North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre
are among those who have been thrust into deeply Republican territory
after being targeted in GOP-led redistricting efforts in their home
states.”
“For Pennsylvania Rep. Tim Holden, another Blue Dog,
redistricting has created another kind of problem. When Republicans
redrew his central Pennsylvania seat, they created a district far more
liberal than Holden’s old one — one at odds with the conservative record
he has compiled during his two decades in the House… For a few Blue
Dogs, the problems presented by redistricting are compounded by the
challenges of running in conservative Southern states during a
presidential election year. Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler, McIntyre and
Barrow must run in states where President Barack Obama’s unpopularity
threatens to trickle down the ballot and damage their reelection bids.”
The AP
reports that Rev. Robert Jeffress, an evangelical leader in Texas, has
called on Christians to support Mitt Romney “in spite of his Mormon
faith.”
Jeffress has previously called Mormonism a cult and said Mitt Romney is not really a Christian.
A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters nationally with the two now tied at 46% each.
Alex Burns: “This is what you’d expect to see at the outset of the general election, as the challenger candidate solidifies his stature as his party’s nominee, but before either campaign really unloads on the other in a comprehensive, expensive way. But it’s helpful to Romney to get a spate of polling that may reassure voters and GOP leaders that his poor favorability rating won’t stop him from making this thing competitive.”
Jesse Kelly (R) won the Republican primary and will face Ron Barber (D) in a special election to fill the remaining months of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ (D-AZ) term in Congress, the Arizona Republic reports.
“Kelly, who lost narrowly to Giffords in 2010, had a campaign ready to go when Giffords resigned in late January to focus on recovering from a 2011 shooting outside a Tucson constituent event. The 30-year-old Kelly benefited from voters knowing his name and having a strong base of ‘tea party’ support built two years ago, when Republicans reclaimed a majority in the House.”
“As Giffords’ former district director, Barber is a formidable candidate… He is also forever linked to the 2011 tragedy, which left six
dead and 13 wounded, including Barber, who survived shots to the leg and
face.”
Mitt Romney told CNBC that there’s precedent for presidential candidates releasing just two years of tax returns.
Said Romney: “Well, we’ve had people run for president before, and they’ve released two years. John Kerry released two years of taxes… I’ve released one already, put the estimate out for the next year. We’ll have two years of taxes.”
But Think Progress points out Kerry actually released 20 years of tax returns when he was a candidate in 2004.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) told ABC News he’s “not looking to become vice president” but left the door open to a conversation about it with Mitt Romney.
Said Christie: “But I also think it is extraordinarily arrogant for you to say you won’t even listen to the nominee of your party — especially for me. It’s someone who I’ve been supporting since last October vigorously around the country — that I wouldn’t take a call from Mitt Romney.”
Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds Christie is the early leader of the GOP’s 2016 field.
Vice President Joe Biden gets the bad lip reading treatment.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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