Politico
delves into Rick Santorum’s “decentralized, cause-driven, low-cost
modern campaign” model and “guerrilla approach,” a sharp contrast to Mitt
Romney’s much more organized, professional, and top-heavy operation.

“Santorum
has battled concerns about his field and turnout machinery, suffering
from a series of stumbles that left him without access to the Virginia
ballot and ineligible for some delegates in Ohio. He leans on local
political networks, powered in many cases by grass-roots Christian
conservatives, as a substitute for Mitt Romney’s bulked-up organization.
The campaign maintains the tightest of inner circles, reserving
Santorum’s ear for a small list of longtime aides and supporters.”

“The
fact that the campaign is now playing out across 50 states, rather than
the three early battlegrounds Santorum’s effort was built for, is a
double-edged challenge. On one level, Romney’s structural and financial
advantages loom ever larger as the race moves into places where the GOP
hopefuls cannot run a months-long, hand-shaking, Santorum-style retail
campaign. On the other hand, it means that national-level messaging can
have a disproportionate impact in states like Alabama and
Mississippi…in which no candidate has been able to build up a daunting
organizational edge.”

Reuters
reports that Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL), chairman of the powerful House
Financial Services Committee, defeated state Sen. Scott Beason and two
other primary challengers in a closely watched race amid an investigation into whether Bachus violated insider trading laws.

Patricia Murphy notes Newt Gingrich tipped his hand last night at “his campaign’s real strategy, which is no longer to win to nomination outright but to make Mitt Romney lose by denying him the 1,144 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination before the Republican convention in August.”

“Gingrich has grown increasingly bitter toward Romney throughout the campaign, as the former Massachusetts governor has unloaded a barrage of attacks against the former speaker and, Gingrich believes, hurt his showings at the polls in the process.”

National Journal quotes Gingrich: “Governor Romney will get at most one out of every three delegates. Once again he will fall dramatically short … I think that the odds against his being able to get 1,144 delegates is very, very high. I think he is more likely to be a front-runner who ends up not finishing the race.”

Mitt Romney won Hawaii’s first-ever Republican presidential caucus Tuesday, taking 45% of the vote, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.

Romney was followed by Rick Santorum at 25%, Ron Paul at 19% and Newt Gingrich at 11%. The four were competing for 17 of the state’s 20 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that this
would be his last campaign and his final term in the U.S.
Senate, KCSG-TV reports.

Hatch is currently 77 and would be 84 in 2018, the year he would again be up for reelection.

Paul Begala: “Let me be the first to call on Mitt Romney to get out of the race. By placing third in Alabama and Mississippi, losing to Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in both states, Romney has gone from inevitable to unelectable. Somebody strap him to the roof of one of his Cadillacs and drive him off to one of his many mansions.”

“One of the great legends of political consulting is the Dog Food Problem: an apocryphal tale of a company that had the best packaging, the best advertising, the best marketing. But there was only one problem: the dog wouldn’t eat it. Forevermore we should no longer call it a Dog Food Problem. We should call it a Mitt Romney Problem.”

“I don’t think anybody expected Mitt to win Alabama or Mississippi.”

— Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom, tonight on CNN.

“We are going to win tomorrow.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted yesterday by BuzzFeed.

In an interview with KSDK-TV, Mitt Romney said he would eliminate any federal funding of Planned Parenthood in an effort to reduce the national debt.

Said Romney: “Planned Parenthood, we’re going to get rid of that.”

Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8 pm ET. Caucuses in Hawaii begin at 2 am ET.

A win by Mitt Romney in either or both of the two Southern states voting today would seriously undermine his two primary rivals, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

Nate Silver notes Southern states “have a reputation for counting their vote slowly.”

This is interesting: The Washington Post reports Romney is not holding a celebration tonight and is instead watching results from a hotel room in New York City.

Exit polls show Santorum leading by five points in Alabama, Romney leading by five points in Mississippi. No network is willing to make a projection based on these numbers.

Washington Examiner: “Newt Gingrich’s campaign has just sent out a memo that reveals (to no
one’s surprise) a defiant determination to stay in the race until the
end. If you read between the lines, it looks like he’s almost conceding
tonight’s races in advance.”

NBC News projects Santorum will win in Alabama.

Fox News projects Santorum will win in Mississippi.

Expect the narrative that Romney can’t reach the 1,144 delegates to gain steam in the coming days.

The Illinois primary on March 20 will be an epic battle between Romney and Santorum.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is recruiting former Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-MI) to run against Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI), The Hill reports.

Said Schwarz: “We talked and have had very pleasant conversations about it. The DCCC is correctly looking for a candidate to run in the 7th district because there certainly would be a stark contrast between Congressman Walberg and a viable, credible Democratic candidate.”

A new MoveOn video clearly highlights the problem Republicans could have with women in this year’s elections.

[Read more…]

Sarah Palin responded on Facebook to President Obama’s reelection campaign after footage of her was used in a fundraising video.

Said Palin: “I’m not running for any office, but I’m more than happy to accept the dubious honor of being Barack Obama’s ‘enemy of the week’ if that includes the opportunity to debate him on the issues Americans are actually concerned about.”

She added: “I’m willing and free to discuss these issues with the President anywhere, anytime.”

[Read more…]

Regardless of the final popular vote result in Alabama and Mississippi, Harry Enten notes the the net delegate count in each state is likely to be pretty even.

“Mississippi’s delegates are going to be split proportionally, and we’re probably looking at a split of nine delegates for Gingrich, nine for Romney, and seven for Santorum. Alabama has a ‘top two’ primary in each congressional district (that is, the winner in each district will get two delegates and second-placed candidate will get one), while the state-wide delegates will be apportioned proportionally. Determining who will win which districts is difficult in such a close state-wide race. Romney’s probably going to come in third in the more rural areas, but he could win the districts around Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile. My estimate is that he’ll take 14-17 delegates state-wide, while Santorum and Gingrich take 11-20 delegates each.”

That said, Romney will still likely end the night with more delegates than his rivals.

“Though not subject to much media focus, Romney’s going to do very well in the American Samoa and Hawaii caucuses. American Samoa is 30% Mormon (the most Mormon-dominated contest this year, outside of Utah)… Hawaii’s delegates will be divided more evenly because its allocation
system is proportional.”

Richard Cohen notes that since Sarah Palin stepped on the national political stage we’ve been subjected to “a deluge of dysfunctional presidential candidates. They do not lie with quite the conviction of Palin, but they are sometimes her match in ignorance. As with Palin, it seemed hardly to matter… Palin is no longer an anomaly.”

“So far, the Palin effect has been limited to the GOP. Surely, though, there lurks in the Democratic Party potential candidates who have seen Palin and taken note. Experience, knowledge, accomplishment — these no longer may matter. They will come roaring out of the left proclaiming a hatred of all things Washington, including compromise. The movie had it right. Sarah Palin changed the game.”