A new University of Cincinnati poll in Ohio shows Rick Santorum leading the GOP field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%, Newt Gingrich at 16% and Ron Paul at 11%.

Key finding: 47% of those polled said they could change their mind between now and next Tuesday’s primary.

The AP
reports that Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) has chosen to run a primary
challenge against Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO) after Carnahan’s district was
split into a Republican-leaning suburban district and Clay’s heavily
Democratic St. Louis district.

The Hill:
“The race is a continuation of a fight between the two that started
with redistricting, when Missouri lost one of its congressional seats.
Carnahan’s district was dismantled by Republicans in the state
Legislature, but after Missouri’s Democratic governor, Jay Nixon, vetoed
the maps, the final votes to override the veto came from Clay allies in
the statehouse. After it became clear Clay was happy to see Carnahan
lose his seat, Carnahan swore at him on Missouri’s statehouse floor,
according to reports.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails both of his most likely opponents in the recall election by narrow margins. Tom Barrett (D) leads 49% to 46% and Kathleen Falk is ahead 48% to 47%.

Key finding: Walker continues to be unpopular with only 47% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.

Mitt Romney accused Rick Santorum of trying to “kidnap our primary process” by getting Democrats to influence the very tight Michigan GOP primary race, National Journal reports.

And for the first time, Romney conceded that Santorum might win.

Said Romney: “I think the hardest thing about predicting what’s going to happen today is whether Senator Santorum’s effort to call Democrat households and tell them to come out and vote against Mitt Romney is going to be successful or not. I think Republicans have to recognize there’s a real effort to kidnap our primary process. And if we want Republicans to nominate the Republican who takes on Barack Obama, I need Republicans to get out and vote and say no to the dirty tricks of a desperate campaign.”

A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia shows George Allen (R) has opened up an 8-point lead over Tim Kaine (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 37%.

One caveat: These numbers differ from those of nearly every other survey over the last year, with most polls showing the race within the margin of error.

Filmmaker and Michigan native Michael Moore told Rachel Maddow that he’s encouraging Democrats to vote in today’s Republican presidential primary.

Said Moore: “A lot of my Democratic friends are going to vote for Santorum tomorrow in something they are calling, Operation Hilarity. We do have a good sense of humor in the state of Michigan.”

Update: Moore’s office emails to clarify he “wasn’t actually encouraging Michiganders to vote for Santorum, just reporting that friends of his are doing it and that he thinks it’s funny.”

[Read more…]

The latest Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone poll in Michigan finds Mitt Romney edging back into the lead over Rick Santorum, 37% to 36%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Said pollster Steve Mitchell: “The lead changed again in a race that appears to be very, very close. Romney leads by just 1.4% on the eve of the election. The big change in tonight’s polling seems to be an increase in support among women voters where Romney now leads by 5%. Depending on the turnout, the race could go either way.”

Meanwhile, BuzzFeed has a poll conducted last night from a “reliable GOP source” that shows Santorum leading Romney, 33% to 28%.

“I’m very pleased with the campaign, its organization. The candidate sometimes makes some mistakes, and so I’m trying to do
better and work harder and make sure that we get our message across.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by BuzzFeed, when asked if he was satisfied with how his campaign has been run.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Newt Gingrich with a big lead in next week’s GOP presidential primary with 39%, followed by Rick Santorum at 24%, Mitt Romney at 23% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Nate Silver: “One word of warning: factors like early voting, crossover voting and the relatively large amount of demographic diversity within Michigan will make it tricky to call the state based on exit poll results and the first few precincts that report. For instance, if early and absentee results are reported before those cast on Election Day, as is common in some states, Mr. Romney could initially emerge with a lead that proved ephemeral. I generally take the view that the news networks are too quick to call a race — shouldn’t have we learned something from Florida in 2000 or Iowa this year? — but there is reason to be especially cautious here.”

Voters head to the polls today in Michigan’s surprisingly competitive Republican presidential primary.
The primary is open; any registered voter can vote.

First Read: “Tonight will largely decide if Romney limps to the nomination or if all hell breaks loose inside the GOP. There’s no overstating the consequences of a Romney loss tonight: There won’t just be handwringing by the establishment, but there will be financial and staffing consequences, too.”

Meanwhile, a top Republican strategist unaligned with a presidential campaign tells The Note that no matter what happens in Michigan today,
“Romney will have to battle weakness concerns rest of campaign.”

All polls will be closed at 9 pm ET.

GOP strategist Matthew Dowd to George Stephanopoulos:

“If Rick Santorum wins tonight it’s the equivalent of a 9.0 on a Richter scale. I mean it is going to shake Washington, it’s going to shake Republican establishment it’s just going to shake things to their very core. And I think what you’re going to see are the conversations that have been going on behind quiet doors saying we need another candidate in this race.”

A super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich has received another “substantial” contribution from billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and will launch television ads in seven states this week, the Washington Post reports.

The ads will begin today in Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio and Tennessee, with more to come Wednesday in Mississippi, Alabama and Kansas.

David Brooks: “All across the nation, there are mainstream Republicans lamenting how the party has grown more and more insular, more and more rigid. This year, they have an excellent chance to defeat President Obama, yet the wingers have trashed the party’s reputation by swinging from one embarrassing and unelectable option to the next: Bachmann, Trump, Cain, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum. But where have these party leaders been over the past five years, when all the forces that distort the G.O.P. were metastasizing?”

“Sen. Santorum did something today which I think is deceptive and a dirty trick.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by CNN, on his rival using robocalls to seek the support of crossover Democrats.

National Republican leaders “are voicing increasing dismay over the course of the party’s presidential primary, which has fallen into such a negative grind that they warn it could cost them the White House,” Politico reports.

“At the core of their concern is the atmosphere of daily vituperation between the top candidates. Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are now engaged in a seemingly constant knife fight, interrupted by only the sparest of positive, policy-oriented debate.”

Notes former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D): “In terms of sustained negativity, there’s nothing like it in history.”

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds just 38% of “very conservative” Americans now express favorable views of Mitt Romney. That’s his lowest mark of the campaign among staunch conservatives and down 16 percentage points over the past two weeks.