“This is like watching a Greek tragedy. It’s the negative campaigning and the increasingly personal attacks… it should have stopped long ago. Any utility from the debates has been exhausted, and now it’s just exchanging cheap shots and personal shots followed by super PAC attacks.”

— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by the Boston Herald, on the state of the Republican presidential race.

Mitt Romney “fought back a vigorous challenge from Rick Santorum in Michigan on Tuesday, narrowly carrying his native state, and won the Arizona primary in a pair of contests that reasserted his control over the Republican presidential race as it advances to critical Super Tuesday contests next week,” the New York Times reports.

“His victory over Mr. Santorum here in Michigan was far from commanding, but it was most likely sufficient to dampen the rising clamor from across the Republican Party about his ability to win over conservatives and connect with voters. The tussle with Mr. Santorum highlighted ample concerns about Mr. Romney, but his win spared his campaign from deep turmoil.”

Politico: “By winning in Michigan and cruising in Arizona, the establishment darling has reasserted his status as the Republican favorite. It may be a slower and messier process than Romney and his aides would prefer, but the former Massachusetts governor still looks on track to eventually capture the GOP nomination.”

Chris Cillizza: “But, winning is winning. And when Romney needed to win — a loss in Michigan would have crippled his campaign beyond repair (or close to it) — he did. ”

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds that with Gov. Chris Christie (R) as his running mate, Mitt Romney cuts into President Obama’s lead in New Jersey, but still falls short, trailing 49% to 43%.

Without Christie, Romney trails Obama 49% to 39%.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Sen. Robert Menendez (D) leads state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R), his virtually unknown challenger, 49% to 34%.

Key finding: Menendez gets a 48% to 31% job approval rating, his best score ever, and voters say 48% to 34% that he deserves to be reelected, also his best score ever.

Polls are now closed across most of Michigan, although several voting districts will be open until 9 pm ET.

Preliminary results should be available soon.

As expected, Mitt Romney wins the Arizona primary. No networks are willing to make a projection in Michigan.

First Read: “Despite the — warranted — focus on Michigan over Arizona, Romney will actually win more delegates out of Arizona than Michigan, no matter the outcome, because Michigan is winner-take-all by congressional district.”

Bettors on Intrade now give Romney a 92% chance of winning in Michigan.

Exit polls show that 9% of Michigan primary voters self-identified as Democrats. Among these voters, Santorum won 53% while Romney won 17%.

Nearly every early indicator in Michigan is showing Romney doing better than expected. Most analysts — including Karl Rove, Joe Trippi and Mike Murphy — now think Romney will ultimately win.

No network is willing to call the race for Romney as of 10 pm ET, but it’s essentially over.

At 10:13 pm ET, NBC News projected Romney will win the Michigan primary.

National Review has a new poll conducted today in Michigan — including those who have voted early, have voted today, or who told the pollster they will be voting by the end of the day — shows the primary is still a toss up with Romney at 39% and Santorum at 38%, with a 5% margin of error.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will not run for re-election, the Portland Press Herald reports.

Said Snowe: “After an extraordinary amount of reflection and consideration, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate.”

With Rick Santorum now urging Democrats to vote for him in Michigan’s open primary, CNN notes he took a very different position in late January.

Said Santorum at the time: “We want the activists of the party, the people who make up the backbone of the Republican Party to have a say in who our nominee is as opposed to a bunch of people who don’t even identify themselves as Republicans picking our nominee. I don’t like that. I believe that states should only allow Republicans to vote in Republican primaries.”

“I am so mad at the press I could just strangle them!”

— Ann Romney, quoted by National Review, on how it was “getting harder and harder to be cheerful.”

In a fiery speech to the United Auto Workers, President Obama defended his decision to bail out the auto industry while ripping into Mitt Romney.

Greg Sargent: “But this speech was about more than the auto-bailout. It was Obama’s case for reelection. This speech constituted Obama’s most ambitious effort yet to weave his defense of the auto rescue into the larger contrast he will try to draw between his vision and the ‘you’re on your own’ ideology he will accuse Republicans of representing.”

Andrew Sullivan: “I worry it positions him a little too far to the left — even if he is addressing a union crowd. But it sure doesn’t make him look afraid or cautious or calculating, does it? It reminds us of the formidable orator any Republican is going to have to counter this fall, and the economic climate and real record that buttresses this president’s case. It’s why he’ll almost certainly win Michigan this fall — and maybe much more.”

[Read more…]

“Turn-out in today’s presidential primary election looks to be about the same or less than it was four years ago,” the Detroit Free Press reports.

CNN: “The Michigan Secretary of State’s Office on Tuesday estimated turnout in the Republican primary will represent between 15% and 20% of registered voters. If the prediction holds, the figure would represent a decrease from the 21% who participated in the 2008 contest.”

A new University of Cincinnati poll in Ohio shows Rick Santorum leading the GOP field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%, Newt Gingrich at 16% and Ron Paul at 11%.

Key finding: 47% of those polled said they could change their mind between now and next Tuesday’s primary.

The AP
reports that Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) has chosen to run a primary
challenge against Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO) after Carnahan’s district was
split into a Republican-leaning suburban district and Clay’s heavily
Democratic St. Louis district.

The Hill:
“The race is a continuation of a fight between the two that started
with redistricting, when Missouri lost one of its congressional seats.
Carnahan’s district was dismantled by Republicans in the state
Legislature, but after Missouri’s Democratic governor, Jay Nixon, vetoed
the maps, the final votes to override the veto came from Clay allies in
the statehouse. After it became clear Clay was happy to see Carnahan
lose his seat, Carnahan swore at him on Missouri’s statehouse floor,
according to reports.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails both of his most likely opponents in the recall election by narrow margins. Tom Barrett (D) leads 49% to 46% and Kathleen Falk is ahead 48% to 47%.

Key finding: Walker continues to be unpopular with only 47% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.

Mitt Romney accused Rick Santorum of trying to “kidnap our primary process” by getting Democrats to influence the very tight Michigan GOP primary race, National Journal reports.

And for the first time, Romney conceded that Santorum might win.

Said Romney: “I think the hardest thing about predicting what’s going to happen today is whether Senator Santorum’s effort to call Democrat households and tell them to come out and vote against Mitt Romney is going to be successful or not. I think Republicans have to recognize there’s a real effort to kidnap our primary process. And if we want Republicans to nominate the Republican who takes on Barack Obama, I need Republicans to get out and vote and say no to the dirty tricks of a desperate campaign.”

A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia shows George Allen (R) has opened up an 8-point lead over Tim Kaine (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 37%.

One caveat: These numbers differ from those of nearly every other survey over the last year, with most polls showing the race within the margin of error.

Filmmaker and Michigan native Michael Moore told Rachel Maddow that he’s encouraging Democrats to vote in today’s Republican presidential primary.

Said Moore: “A lot of my Democratic friends are going to vote for Santorum tomorrow in something they are calling, Operation Hilarity. We do have a good sense of humor in the state of Michigan.”

Update: Moore’s office emails to clarify he “wasn’t actually encouraging Michiganders to vote for Santorum, just reporting that friends of his are doing it and that he thinks it’s funny.”

[Read more…]

The latest Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone poll in Michigan finds Mitt Romney edging back into the lead over Rick Santorum, 37% to 36%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Said pollster Steve Mitchell: “The lead changed again in a race that appears to be very, very close. Romney leads by just 1.4% on the eve of the election. The big change in tonight’s polling seems to be an increase in support among women voters where Romney now leads by 5%. Depending on the turnout, the race could go either way.”

Meanwhile, BuzzFeed has a poll conducted last night from a “reliable GOP source” that shows Santorum leading Romney, 33% to 28%.