Charlie Cook: “Democrats face twin struggles as they seek to retake the House majority they lost in 2010. First, the chamber has largely sorted itself out. With 96 percent of Democratic House members representing districts carried by President Obama and 94 percent of Republican House lawmakers representing districts won by Mitt Romney, each party pretty much has the seats God intended. The House simply doesn’t have much elasticity right now. Substantial gains would either require Democrats winning a bunch of Romney districts or Republicans capturing a lot of Obama districts. Given this sorting out and the almost parliamentary-style voting we’re seeing these days, either party would require one heck of a head of steam to pick up a lot of seats from the other side.”
Tweets Were to Congressman’s Newly-Found Daughter
Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) tells NBC News that “the 24-year-old woman he tweeted at during the State of the Union address was not a romantic interest, but in fact his daughter.”
“The congressman would not elaborate on how he only found out three years ago that he had a daughter. He said circumstances led him to search on Google for the mother of his child.”
Man vs. Machine in New Jersey
Roll Call: “It’s man vs. the machine: Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. are on track to have a New Jersey-style knockout primary for the Democratic Senate nod in 2014.”
“This brewing political battle would match an outsider with an army of Twitter followers, wealthy celebrity connections and television news fame against a congressman who has spent years currying favor with the state establishment to run for this very seat.”
However, Steve Kornacki says the way Booker “handled the past two months does raise questions about how he’ll hold up under the national spotlight.”
Former Mayor Gambled More Than $1 Billion
Former San Diego Mayor Maureen O’Connor (D) “spent the last decade wagering more than a billion dollars at casinos across the country, eventually liquidating her savings, auctioning her belongings, selling off real estate, borrowing from friends and taking more than $2 million from a charity set up by her late husband, a fast-food tycoon,” the New York Times reports.
O’Connor “blamed an addiction to gambling aggravated by a brain tumor for the gargantuan spree. Her lawyers said that while she had made well over a billion dollars in bets at casinos in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and San Diego, her actual net losses were around $13 million.”
Rahm Emanuel Said to be Considering Presidential Bid
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel “is said by well-connected Democrats to be considering the idea of running for president if Hillary Clinton opts out of the 2016 race,” Lloyd Grove reports.
“The 53-year-old Emanuel, who is busy raising money for his 2015 reelection campaign in the Windy City, has had discussions both over the phone and face to face in the past month with Democratic Party donors and fundraisers about a possible White House run, according to sources.”
But the Chicago Sun Times says Emanual was “was scrambling to throw cold water” on the report.
Markey Holds Edge Over Lynch
A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts shows Rep. Ed Markey (D) leading Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) among likely Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters, 38% to 31% with 4% prefering another candidate and 26% still undecided.
McConnell Wants to Legalize Hemp Production
Although the federal government “currently puts hemp in the same category of illegal drug as heroin, LSD and ecstasy,” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “wants to change that,” NBC News reports.
McConnell “joined forces Thursday with a pair of West Coast Democrats — Oregon Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley — to cosponsor a bill that would allow American farmers to grow hemp without fear of punishment.”
Texas is the Ground Zero of Politics
Politico: “California fancies itself as a trendsetter and Florida prizes its claim as a microcosm of America. But when it comes to politics — both present-day battles and future trends — ground zero right now is the fastest-growing of the mega-states: Texas.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“To redefine marriage is discriminatory towards those who hold the sincerely held religious belief that it is a sacred institution between a man & a woman.”
— Illinois state Sen. Kyle McCarter (R), on Facebook, in response to the state Senate approving same-sex marriage in Illinois.
Hagel Blocked
Politico reports that Republicans have blocked Chuck Hagel’s nomination to be secretary of Defense, voting to prevent his confirmation on a 58-40 roll call vote, with one senator voting “present.”
The procedural vote the Senate used required 60 votes. But the nomination will get another vote the week of Feb. 25 and Hagel may have the votes for confirmation by that time.
Quinn Loses His Running Mate
Illinois Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon (D) told WLS-TV that she will not seek reelection with Gov. Pat Quinn (D), the latest political trouble for the increasingly embattled governor.
Lautenberg Will Retire
Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) will not seek re-election to a sixth term next year, the Newark Star Ledger reports.
Said Lautenberg: “While I may not be seeking re-election, there is plenty of work to do before the end of this term and I’m going to keep fighting as hard asever for the people of New Jersey in the U.S. Senate.”
“The decision by Lautenberg, who has been giving mixed signals for months, marks the end of a political era in New Jersey and one that is likely to set off a fierce primary battle as Democrats, including Newark Mayor Cory Booker, jockey for the rare open seat.”
Overplaying Rubio
Between at 5 a.m. and 11 p.m. yesterday, MSNBC played the tape of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) taking a drink of water 155 times, the Washington Times reports.
Quote of the Day
“The president likes to attack Congress, but if he is serious about enacting this agenda, I think it must start with the part of this Congress that his party controls — the United States Senate. What can he get passed in the United States Senate?”
— House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by The Hill.
Hagel Nomination Hits a Wall
Chuck Hagel will not have the 60 votes to overcome a filibuster at tomorrow’s scheduled cloture vote on his nomination to become Defense secretary, NBC News reports.
Roll Call: “Republicans insist they are not mounting a filibuster but merely demanding a delay in a vote until their demands have been satisfied.”
Meanwhile, the Washington Free Beacon digs up a 2007 account of a speech by Hagel in which he claimed that the State Department “has become adjunct to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s office.”
Booker Holds Big Lead Over Lautenberg
A new Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press poll
in New Jersey finds Cory Booker (D) leading Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) in a possible Democratic Senate primary, 40% to 25%.
Democrats on Defense in 2014 Senate Races
The Crystal Ball has an early look at the 2014 U.S. Senate races.
“The seven most imperiled seats in the whole country are all currently held by Democrats. That includes the only seat in the country where the current incumbent party is actually an underdog: West Virginia, where Republicans are now favored to capture the seat of retiring Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D). Democrats also have very tenuous holds on two other seats: South Dakota, where even if he runs again Sen. Tim Johnson (D) will face a stiff challenge from ex-Gov. Mike Rounds (R); and Louisiana, where despite having a popular family name, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is likely to face a well-funded and, more importantly, sane challenger.”
“Democrats have a firmer grip on a quartet of other seats, but Republicans should strongly challenge them in all four. Sens. Mark Begich (D-AK) and Mark Pryor (D-AR) have strong personal brands, but they also might face formidable opponents in deeply Red states. Meanwhile, Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) and likely Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) will be fighting Republicans in more favorable territory, but neither can be called favorites as the GOP figures out its primary fields.”
Is Obama Overreaching?
Mike Murphy: “Unlike his congressional opponents, President Obama faces a merciless countdown clock….The White House realizes this and has come to the shaky conclusion that the President’s best tactic is to continue the campaign theatrics and force the GOP-controlled Congress to bend to his will. Showing the hubris of all things Obama, the White House has forgotten that while he won re-election fair and square with about 66 million votes, 61 million other Americans voted to fire the President.”
“Many of those anti-Obama voters live and vote in the 232 congressional districts firmly held by Republicans. It is terribly naive to think that stuffing e-mail inboxes and presidential hectoring on the stump will persuade those voters–and their members of Congress–to support the President’s decidedly left-tilting second-term agenda. When the President threatens the Republicans in Congress with ‘or else,’ they just roll their eyes and wonder ‘or else what?’ In their precincts, he is not even a paper tiger.”
The Cloakroom: No, President Obama is not overreaching.
