Jon Ralston: “The Clinton panic is palpable. Clinton spent Monday in Nevada and sent her husband to fill in at Florida events after her campaign clearly sensed the firewall buckling here. … There is a dearth of reliable public polling in Nevada, but no one on either side has asserted the race is not in reach for Sanders.”

James Hohmann: “Clinton aides have bent over backwards to lower expectations as Saturday approaches, exaggerating the share of the electorate that will be white.”

First Read notes “the body language tells us where the race is despite the lack of a single good public poll out there. Hillary Clinton is nervous (see her additional campaigning in Nevada yesterday), while Bernie Sanders seems like the guy who’s feeling confident (see his campaigning in Michigan, not Nevada, yesterday).”

Jon Ralston: “Nevada has a closed caucus sytem — that is, only Democrats can participate on Feb. 20 and only Republicans on Feb. 23. But because of a quirk in the system — cue the national ridicule again — Republicans could vote in both caucuses.”

“Republicans closed their registration rolls on Feb. 13, and that is the file that will be used on Feb. 23. Democrats are allowing same-day registration on Saturday. So: A Republican registered by Feb. 13 could show up at a Democratic caucus site on Saturday, switch to the Democratic Party, vote and then still participate on Tuesday because the party switch would not show up on the GOP caucus rolls.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders has spent twice as much on Nevada television ads as rival Hillary Clinton, the Las Vegas Review Journal reports.

“They’re the two heaviest spenders of both parties as Nevada voters get ready to participate in upcoming caucuses. Democrats will caucus on Feb. 20, Republicans on Feb. 23.”

“With five days to go until the Nevada caucuses — once viewed as Hillary Clinton’s Western firewall — Sen. Harry Reid and his allies are incensed at the wounded Democratic frontrunner,” Politico reports.

“The campaign’s recent assertion that Nevada is ‘still a state that is 80 percent white voters’ – in other words, a state that looks alot like Bernie Sanders’ base — is simply wrong, Reid allies claim. But more galling than that, they say, it undermines the entire rationale for the caucuses’ existence — the state was only pushed to the front of the election calendar eight years ago because Reid lobbied for better demographic representation than the overwhelmingly white early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.”

Jon Ralston: Team Clinton growing nervous about Nevada

A Washington Free Beacon/Targetpoint poll in Nevada shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders tied at 45% each among likely caucusgoers.

Jon Ralston: “There is no reliable polling in Nevada — at least not yet. But the conventional wisdom had been that Clinton had a huge advantage here, especially because Team Sanders did not arrive until October. Not anymore.”

“I don’t smell a rat. I smell something much more pungent from the Clinton campaign: fear.”

New York Times: “The Democratic presidential caucuses in Nevada were supposed to be an afterthought: lost in the shadows of high-profile battles in Iowa and New Hampshire, and fought in a state far off in the West where voters have a long, warm history with Bill and Hillary Clinton.”

“Instead, after Mrs. Clinton’s overwhelming defeat in New Hampshire by Senator Bernie Sanders on Tuesday, eight days after she barely won the Iowa caucuses, Nevada is looming as a turning point in their increasingly competitive contest, offering critical tests of the two candidates’ strengths.”

Jon Ralston: “Nevada Democrats caucus on Feb. 20, so Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will descend on the state this week, along with national media types eager to roll the dice, gamble on the future and see which campaign craps out.”

“The Democratic caucus in ’08 was vicious between Clinton and Obama. But I’m not sure I have ever seen such a pitched battle for one demographic as those two battling over the Hispanic vote, including putting a student college leader in the crossfire. The Hispanic vote was only about 14 percent of the caucus turnout in ’08, but in a close race it could be pivotal… I still think Hillary has a slight edge over Bernie because of her superior staff and appeal to minorities, but it could be close.”

Meanwhile, BuzzFeed reports the Clinton campaign is already forecasting a closer race in Nevada.

“Hillary Clinton has been on the ground in Nevada since last April. Bernie Sanders only began building up his organization here late in the fall,” Politico reports.

“But the state that’s been touted as Clinton’s firewall against the Vermont senator in the event he generates any momentum out of the whiter and more liberal states of Iowa and New Hampshire is suddenly looking like it’s in play, potentially opening another unexpected early state front.”

A new Gravis Marketing survey in Nevada finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Ben Carson at 6%, Carly Fiorina at 5%, Jeb Bush at 5% and Chris Christie at 5%.

[Read more…]

A new CNN/ORC poll in Nevada finds Donald Trump leading the Republican presidential race with 38%, followed by Ben Carson at 22%, Carly Fiorina at 8%, Marco Rubio at 7%, Jeb Bush at 6%, Ted Cruz at 4% and Mike Huckabee at 4%.