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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 190

Trump Is Everywhere

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 190: Trump Is Everywhere

It’s Primary Election Day In Wisconsin

February 21, 2023 · 9:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Voters head to the polls on Tuesday to choose which two jurists will compete to join the Wisconsin Supreme Court — a race unmatched in its consequence to policy in this battleground state, where conservatives and liberals are expected to raise and spend levels of cash not seen before in a judicial race,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

“Conservatives are defending their 4-3 majority on the court as Wisconsin Democrats seek to flip control of the court to liberal justices for the first time in more than a decade. The race comes in a year when the issue of abortion is top of mind after a dormant 19th century law banning the practice in nearly every situation has resurfaced following last year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.”

2023 Campaign

Activist Pastor Seeks to Remake Wisconsin’s Top Court

February 20, 2023 · 11:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “At one point, Judge Everett Mitchell was a functionally illiterate teen running from trouble at home. Now he’s running for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court in one of the nation’s most consequential elections — with major implications for 2024.”

2023 Campaign

Bleak Poll Numbers for Chicago’s Mayor

February 8, 2023 · 12:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

With the election less than three weeks away, three out of five voters disapprove of the job Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) has done in her first term and 71% think the city is on the wrong track, according to a Sun-Times/WBEZ/Telemundo Chicago/NBC5 poll of Chicago voters.

2023 Campaign

Democrats Win Three Special Elections in Pennsylvania

February 8, 2023 · 7:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats won control of the Pennsylvania House in special elections Tuesday, wresting partial power from Republicans for the first time in a dozen years in the competitive swing state,” the AP reports.

“Democrats won all three vacant Pittsburgh-area House seats to claim a slim edge over Republicans, finally securing a majority they first appeared to have won in last November’s General Election. Republicans still hold the Senate, creating a political division that could make it difficult for lawmakers to send priority bills to new Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.”

“The special elections capped several months of electoral drama.”

2023 Campaign

Megan Barry Mulls Comeback in Nashville

February 1, 2023 · 5:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D) told Axios that she’s considering running for the office again.

Barry resigned from office in 2018 following the revelation that she had an affair with the head of her police security detail.

2023 Campaign

Elections Officials Ready for New Wave of Deniers

February 1, 2023 · 9:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

Politico: “Donald Trump acolytes galvanized by the former president’s false narrative that the 2020 election was stolen from him piled into last year’s campaigns for state election officer positions. And although Democrats and mainstream Republicans defeated all of those candidates in key battleground states like Michigan, Arizona and elsewhere, far more races for local election positions there and in other states will be up for grabs next year.”

“The slate of below-the-radar campaigns will test how much money and attention will be available for these critical roles in the midst of a presidential race.”

2023 Campaign

‘Off Years’ Aren’t So Off Anymore

January 27, 2023 · 11:00 am ET · Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “The concept of ‘off years’ once meant relative political tranquility, save the occasional special congressional election and the regular off-year state elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.”

“The new reality is that for the two major parties, odd-numbered years are about candidates, while even-numbered years are about campaigns. The year before an election, there is no greater task than convincing incumbents, at least those who are not extremely old or scandal-damaged, to seek reelection, while simultaneously encouraging the best possible candidates run in open and toss-up races and keeping the weakest candidates out.”

“Anyone who believes that national party leaders and operatives should take a hands-off approach to who runs where obviously does not appreciate what happened to Republicans in 2022.”

2023 Campaign

The Biggest, Most Unusual Race in 2023

January 26, 2023 · 10:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “In 10 weeks, Wisconsin will hold an election that carries bigger policy stakes than any other contest in America in 2023.”

“The April race, for a seat on the state’s evenly divided Supreme Court, will determine the fate of abortion rights, gerrymandered legislative maps and the Wisconsin governor’s appointment powers — and perhaps even influence the state’s 2024 presidential election…”

“The contest will almost certainly shatter spending records for a judicial election in any state, and could even double the current most expensive race. Wisconsinites are set to be inundated by a barrage of advertising, turning a typically sleepy spring election into the latest marker in the state’s nonstop political season. The seat is nonpartisan in name only, with officials from both parties lining up behind chosen candidates.”

“Indeed, the clash for the court is striking because of how nakedly political it is.”

2023 Campaign

Andy Beshear Leads All Challengers in Kentucky

January 26, 2023 · 8:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

A new Mason-Dixon poll indicates Gov. Andy Beshear “still gets a thumbs-up from most Kentuckians for his work and also leads four notable Republican opponents as he seeks a second term in office, while Attorney General Daniel Cameron has a sizable edge over his competitors in the GOP’s upcoming gubernatorial primary.”

“Beshear’s job approval rating remains high, at 61%, while just 29% of respondents disapproved of his performance and 10% weren’t sure how they feel.”

2023 Campaign KY-Gov

Chicago Mayor Faces Tough Re-Election

January 21, 2023 · 7:43 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Lori Lightfoot made history as the first Black woman and first openly gay person to serve as Chicago mayor, sailing to victory four years ago as an outsider who vowed to rid City Hall of corruption and deliver a safer, more equitable city,” the AP reports.

“But her bid for a second term is very much in question amid concerns about continuing high crime in the nation’s third-largest city and accusations that she is overly hostile and sometimes flat-out mean — criticism she has dismissed as sexist and racist smears against a tough leader who is passionate about Chicago.”

2023 Campaign, City Hall

The Shadow Race to Replace George Santos Has Begun

January 19, 2023 · 12:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Daily Beast: “Republicans are clamoring to find a candidate with an immaculate, bulletproof résumé who can patch up the Long Island GOP’s scarred reputation. Democrats are looking for someone who can lead their comeback—an emboldened move to flip the district back to blue after Santos dyed it red.”

“The timing is complicated. Santos could resign any day now. And if he did, it’d spark a special election, where party leaders would pick their own candidates. Santos has remained adamant he won’t resign unless all 142,673 voters who voted for him call on him to do so—a purposefully impossible goalpost to track.”

2023 Campaign

Democrats Flip Key State Senate Seat in Virginia

January 11, 2023 · 6:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Virginia Democrats appeared to flip a key state Senate seat in Virginia Beach on Tuesday night, expanding their edge in the chamber to 22-18 and making passage of new abortion curbs less likely in the session that starts Wednesday.”

2023 Campaign

Republicans Likely to Pick Up Louisiana Governor

January 10, 2023 · 5:37 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Attorney General Jeff Landry is off to an early lead in the GOP primary, and Republicans start with the edge in being able to flip this open seat. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has been a unicorn, and finding another candidate who can build a unique coalition like he did may not be possible.”

“We are being cautious with a Lean Republican rating until the field fully begins to take shape. However, that rating could move further in the GOP’s direction over the next few months.”

2023 Campaign LA-Gov

Democrats Hold Edge in Kentucky Governor’s Race

January 10, 2023 · 5:36 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “After eking out a win in 2019 over unpopular Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, Gov. Andy Beshear starts out with the edge to win a second term. Given the state’s heavy red lean, Republicans still have an opportunity, but they must first get through their own crowded primary.”

“Beshear starts with strong approval ratings and faces only nominal primary opposition.”

2023 Campaign KY-Gov

Democrats’ 2023 Red State Test

January 9, 2023 · 6:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Gov. Andy Beshear’s hotly contested re-election in Kentucky is one of three red-state governor’s races this year, but the only one with a Democratic incumbent,” Axios reports.

“Democrats say they have a playbook that’s perfect for this moment, after helping Gov. Laura Kelly win in deep-red Kansas for a second time last year. But they concede that abortion might not be the X factor that it was last cycle.”

2023 Campaign

Kennedy Won’t Run for Louisiana Governor

January 4, 2023 · 6:03 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) “said he won’t run for governor of Louisiana this year, which is likely to trigger a flood of on-the-fence candidates to jump into the race,” the Lafayette Daily Advertiser reports.

Said Kennedy: “I have looked into my heart and decided to remain in the Senate and not to run for governor. At this juncture, I just think I can help my state and my country more in the Senate.”

2023 Campaign LA-Gov

Democrats Quietly Enter 2023 with Momentum

December 29, 2022 · 7:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

Democrats’ unexpected strength in the 2022 midterms extended to state legislatures, where they picked up seats in 21 states and took control of five chambers from the GOP, Axios reports.

2023 Campaign

Virginia Democrats Set Firehouse Primary

December 13, 2022 · 6:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin (R) set the special election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-VA) for Feb. 21, but the real deciding moment in the heavily Democratic district is Dec. 20, as party leaders announced they will hold a “firehouse primary” to choose a nominee.

The Richmond Times looks at the field of candidates.

2023 Campaign VA-4

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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