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The GOP Tax Bill Is an Economic Policy Disaster

November 19, 2017 at 9:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stan Collender: “If it’s enacted, the GOP tax cut now working its way through Congress will be the start of a decades-long economic policy disaster unlike any other that has occurred in American history.”

“There’s no economic justification whatsoever for a tax cut at this time. U.S. GDP is growing, unemployment is close to 4 percent (below what is commonly considered ‘full employment’), corporate profits are at record levels and stock markets are soaring. It makes no sense to add any federal government-induced stimulus to all this private sector-caused economic activity, let alone a tax cut as big as this one.”

“This is actually the ideal time for Washington to be doing the opposite.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Economy

The Shocking Math of the GOP Tax Plan

November 18, 2017 at 4:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Adam Davidson: “If it gives us nothing else positive, the Republican tax plan—and, in its Senate form, the health-care repeal—at least provides clarity. There is no debate. The middle class will, in the long run, pay more in taxes than under current law, and the rich will pay less.”

“Just ask the very people who wrote it. The U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Taxation is run by the chairs of the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee—Representative Kevin Brady and Senator Orrin Hatch, respectively. The Joint Committee’s reports of this week make startling reading, or as startling as a series of spreadsheets of tax revenue data can be. The report shows that this bill is much like a teaser rate on a new credit card: there are some goodies in the first couple of years, but those disappear fairly quickly, at least for those below the median income.”

“The report shows that the rich benefit and the poor are hurt in every way that it measures.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Roadblocks Emerge in Senate for Tax Bill

November 18, 2017 at 9:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“GOP leadership is confronting mushrooming demands from individual senators with much more power to bollix up the tax plans, thanks to the party’s super-thin majority,” Politico reports.

“Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has already said he won’t vote for his colleagues’ proposal because of how it treats small businesses… Deficit hawks like Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ) are worried the plan will cost far more than advertised thanks to its liberal use of “temporary” tax provisions that will likely be eventually extended.”

“Moderate Susan Collins (R-ME) has her own concerns, including with plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate to have health insurance as part of tax reform. Others like Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) have been wildcards, avoiding taking a public position on the proposal.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes


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Speed and Subterfuge Is Key to GOP Tax Strategy

November 17, 2017 at 5:17 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Cassidy: “It is entirely conceivable that, in two weeks’ time, the Republican Party’s leaders will have largely succeeded in railroading through Congress an unpopular, regressive, and damaging tax reform. That was their plan from the beginning, and so far it has worked out much as they intended. On Thursday, the House, spurred on by Paul Ryan, voted to approve its version of the legislation. Now everything depends on what happens in the Senate.”

“To get their tax plan through this final legislative stretch, the Republicans will try to rely on speed, subterfuge, and diversion. McConnell and Ryan have read the opinion polls. They know that there is widespread opposition to their plan’s major elements, such as its big tax cuts for corporations, unincorporated businesses, and rich people (like the President), or its new limits on popular deductions for mortgage interest and state and local taxes.”

“That explains why the Republicans didn’t hold any hearings in the House, and why they are adopting similar blitzkrieg tactics in the Senate. The G.O.P.’s strategy is to rush this thing through before the other side has time to organize a defense.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Murkowski Tax Vote Contingent on Health Vote First

November 17, 2017 at 11:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) “said that her vote on the current version of the tax overhaul is contingent on passing a separate bill to stabilize the individual health insurance market,” Roll Call reports.

“The tax legislation now includes a section to repeal the individual mandate — a provision that opens up over $300 billion in revenue — but could also threaten the viability of the overall health law.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Health Care

Quote of the Day

November 17, 2017 at 9:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I come from the poor people, and I have been here working my whole stinkin’ career for people who don’t have a chance, and I really resent anybody that says I’m doing it for the rich. Give me a break. I think you guys overplay all the time, and it gets old. And frankly, you ought to quit it.”

— Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), quoted by RealClearPolitics, in an exchange with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

GOP Tax Bill Gives Private Jet Owners a Tax Break

November 17, 2017 at 8:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Yahoo News: “If you’re one of the lucky Americans who owns a private jet, don’t fret.  Republicans have your back—in the form of tax breaks.”

“The new Senate tax bill will give those who own or lease private planes breaks on the amount they pay to companies for maintenance, storage, fueling and even when they want to hire pilots and a crew onboard. “

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Republicans Pass Tax Bill In the House

November 16, 2017 at 2:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The House passed its version of the Republican tax overhaul Thursday, notching a key win for President Trump and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI). But obstacles remain in the Senate, which is refining its own version of the legislation amid objections from key GOP senators,” the Washington Post reports.

“The bill passed with 227 votes in favor and 205 against. 13 Republicans voted against the bill. No Democrats voted for it.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Tax Bill Would Slam Families Earning Less Than $75K

November 16, 2017 at 11:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The tax bill Senate Republicans are championing would give large tax cuts to millionaires while raising taxes on American families earning $10,000 to $75,000 over the next decade, according to an analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress’ official nonpartisan analysts,” the Washington Post reports.

“President Trump and Republican lawmakers have been heralding their bill as a win for hard-working Americans, but the JCT report casts serious doubt on that claim. Tax hikes for households earning $10,000 to $30,000 would start in 2021 and grow sharply from there. By the year 2027, Americans earning $30,000 to $75,000 a year would also be forced to pay more in taxes even though people earning over $100,000 continue to get substantial tax cuts.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Quote of the Day

November 16, 2017 at 7:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I just picked up the newspaper today and they’ve made a huge change. Every day there seems to be – no, it’s not regular order.”

— Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), quoted by Axios, on the Republican tax bill.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Senate

Conservatives Hold Fire on Tax Bill

November 16, 2017 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As Congress rushes to pass the biggest tax reform legislation in three decades, high-powered business and conservative groups are holding fire on provisions they don’t like in order to avoid derailing the vote,” Politico reports.

“The kumbaya attitude emanates in large part from a sense of desperation among Republicans who believe the party needs to show voters and donors a concrete victory ahead of the 2018 midterms or risk losing control of one or both chambers of Congress, say strategists and conservative activists.”

Said one GOP lobbyist: “It is kind of unreal. People know this is a freight train coming, and they are doing everything they can to get their stuff on it rather than stand in front of it.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Tax Bill Faces Uncertainty in the Senate

November 15, 2017 at 7:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) may not be the only GOP senator to pull support from his party’s tax bill, the New York Times reports.

“Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Bob Corker of Tennessee and John McCain of Arizona have voiced their own concerns and refused to say whether they would ultimately vote for the tax bill.”

“With the House expected to pass its tax legislation, the fate of the overhaul fell into the hands of Republican senators, who grappled with the dangerous political prospects of passing a bill that critics said could undermine the health care system and favored companies over the middle class.”

Washington Post: GOP tax plan in trouble in Senate.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Johnson Opposes GOP Senate Tax Package

November 15, 2017 at 4:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) told the Wall Street Journal that the Republican tax plan benefits corporations more than any other kind of business, and for that reason he is opposed to the bill.

Said Johnson: “If they can pass it without me, let them. I’m not going to vote for this tax package.”

Axios: “Unless they get Democrats on board, Republicans can only afford to lose two GOP votes. This is one.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes Tagged With: Ron Johnson

Voters Really Don’t Like the GOP Tax Plan

November 15, 2017 at 1:45 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll finds that voters disapprove of the Republican tax plan by a 52% to 25% margin.

Republican voters approve 60% to 15%, with 26% undecided. All other party, gender, education, age and racial groups disapprove.

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

New Inflation Measure Would Raise Taxes on Middle Class

November 15, 2017 at 1:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Tucked into Republicans’ tax overhaul bill is a technical tweak to how inflation is measured. The change is designed to hold down the deficit, but over time it becomes a significant tax increase that hits many of the same middle-class households who start out as the plan’s beneficiaries.”

“Both the House and Senate versions of the tax bill would adjust the income thresholds at which tax rates change using a “chained” measure of inflation rather than the better-known consumer-price index.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

How Republicans Are Gaming Budget Rules

November 15, 2017 at 12:25 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “The genius of the Republican plan, if they pull it off, is that they are using hostage-taking in a novel fashion. They are using a 50-vote bill to pass the things Republicans care about, and setting up other, 60-vote bills to fix them. The partisan bill adds up on paper because it doesn’t include the cost of the bailout, which they can assume will be bipartisan.”

“Democrats can complain about this abuse of the rules, but the more productive course is to think of ways of imitating it. For instance: Suppose Democrats win control of Congress and the presidency, but cannot clear a filibuster (and also lack the votes to eliminate it). For instance: What if they decide to pay for an expanded Medicaid or Medicare buy-in plan by imposing a really gigantic tax hike on the rich — higher than even Democrats would like to see? Like a 90 percent top tax rate? Then they can invite Republicans to join them in a follow-up bill to cut that rate back down to a reasonable level.”

“If the rule is that majority-only bills have to add up, but bipartisan bills can increase the deficit all they want, then you can offload the costs of your bills by creating incentives for the other party to join in. In the short run, Republicans may have figured out a way around budget rules. In the long run, Democrats can do the same thing.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Senate

Individual Tax Cuts Would Only Be Temporary

November 15, 2017 at 9:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Times: “Even as Senate leaders seek to enhance their tax package to make it more attractive to middle-class Americans, they are proposing making the new individual benefits expire at the end of 2025 in an effort to avoid adding to the long-term federal deficit.”

“Proposed cuts to corporate taxes would be permanent, under the revised Senate plan.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes

Republicans Trade a Math Problem for a Political One

November 15, 2017 at 9:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “But even if the legislation does pass (and it seems like Senate Republicans are doing whatever it takes to pass it) they won’t have an easy time selling it to the American public. Higher premiums, fewer who are insured, tax cuts for corporations, estate-tax repeal for the wealthiest of Americans – the TV ad attacks in 2018 are easy to envision.”

“And pairing repeal of the individual mandate makes it all but impossible to get some Senate Democrats (West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, Indiana’s Joe Donnelly) to support the GOP’s tax plan. And we’ve seen how partisan legislation plays with the American public at the ballot box.”

“Bottom line: Senate Republicans may have solved their math problem by repealing the individual mandate, but they’ve now added other problems to their tax plan – a week after health care was the most important issue in Virginia’s gubernatorial election, per the exit poll, and after Maine easily passed Medicaid expansion. What’s more, only 27 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of health care, according to last month’s NBC/WSJ poll.”

Filed Under: Budget & Taxes, Health Care

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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