“January 1st is not the end of the fight. It’s the beginning of the fight.”

— Grover Norquist, quoted by Politico, apparently resigned to federal taxes going up.

Todd Purdum: “You hear a lot about openness and transparency — and the disinfecting power of sunlight – -as keys to effective government. But let’s summon at least two cheers for the occasional usefulness of the backroom deal.”

A new Pew Research poll finds that when it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff, 55% say President Obama is making a serious effort to work with Republicans. But just 32% say Republican leaders are making a serious effort to work with Obama on a deficit deal.

Also interesting: Obama’s first post-reelection job approval rating has risen to 55%, up five points since July and 11 points since the start of the year. His job rating is markedly higher than President George W. Bush’s first job measure (48%) after he won reelection in 2004.

In contrast, just 25% approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are doing
their jobs, while 40% approve of Democratic leaders’ job performance.

Vice President Joe Biden “walked the halls of Congress and hosted top-level talks at Blair House during the last fiscal showdown. This time, he’s roaming the aisles of Costco,” Politico notes.

“It’s a stark shift in responsibilities for the vice president, who has been asked to hold off — for now — on leveraging his Capitol Hill connections and to leave the negotiating to his boss.”

“Biden’s new role is a product of President Barack Obama’s decision to streamline fiscal cliff negotiations between himself and House Speaker John Boehner, the two sides’ clear sticking points and Obama’s increased post-election political clout.”

Associated Press: “Republicans still aren’t budging on Obama’s demands for higher tax rates on upper bracket earners, despite the president’s convincing election victory and opinion polls showing support for the idea.”

“Democrats in turn are now resisting steps, such as raising the eligibility age for Medicare, that they were willing to consider just a year and a half ago, when Obama’s chief Republican adversary, House Speaker John Boehner, was in a better tactical position.”

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds nearly two-thirds of Americans say they favor a balanced deal to reduce the deficit — consisting of both higher tax rates and cuts to key entitlement programs.

Key findings: 65% say congressional leaders should make compromises to deal with the budget deficit, even if that means Democrats would need to accept targeted spending cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and that Republicans would need to accept targeted increases in tax rates.

That includes 68% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 56% of political independents who support this position.

Noam Scheiber says President Obama should let Republicans takes us over the fiscal cliff.

“They will see that they have been completely repudiated by the public in a way that even the election didn’t impress on them. It will, in other words, be as close as you get in politics to a total victory for one side. It will highlight the perils of following one’s base too slavishly, a lesson that will come in handy not just on future fiscal policy fights (there will in all likelihood still be a debt ceiling to raise next year), but, one can imagine, also on an issue like immigration. Which is to say, it’s only by forcing the GOP off the cliff that Obama will find the space he needs to govern.”

Andrew Sullivan: “Unless his strategy permanently embitters them and prompts them to use the debt ceiling – once again – as a cudgel.”

“The president and his allies have taken so many things off the table
the only thing left is the varnish.”

— Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), quoted by The Hill, on the fiscal cliff negotiations.

House Republican leaders warned their members they may have to return to Washington after Christmas, claiming that “serious differences” remained in negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” according to The Hill.

Meanwhile, TPM reports that Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) thinks House Speaker John Boehner may be waiting until he’s re-elected Speaker when he’ll have greater flexibility to cut a deal.

Said Van Hollen: “I’m getting increasingly concerned that one of the reasons the Speaker is deciding to, I think, string out these discussions is that he wants to wait til January 3 when the election for Speaker takes place and he’s concerned that any agreement he reaches if it violated the so-called Hastert Rule could undermine support for him in his caucus and make it more difficult on January 3.”

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds President Obama holds a substantial advantage over House Speaker John Boehner in handling budget negotiations to avoid the fiscal cliff: Nearly twice as many Americans approve of the president’s work on the issue so far as favor the speaker’s approach.

Meanwhile, a new Bloomberg poll finds Obama has won the public argument over taxes so decisively that almost half of Republicans now say he has an election mandate to raise rates on the rich.

New York Times: “With negotiations quickening on Tuesday to prevent a year-end fiscal crisis, White House officials once again are confronting a vexing question: Can Speaker John Boehner deliver enough Republican votes for whatever deficit-reduction plan he and President Obama might decide?”

“Eighteen months ago the White House was forced to answer in the negative after secret negotiations between the two leaders collapsed once word leaked of their tentative deal, with its proposed revenue increases. But once again, Mr. Obama must put his fate in Mr. Boehner’s hands on the issue that will help define the president’s second term, and his legacy.”

“I’m pretty confident that Republicans would not hold middle class taxes
hostage to trying to protect tax cuts for high-income individuals.”

— President Obama, in an interview with ABC News, on the fiscal cliff negotiations.

President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner “spoke by phone after exchanging new proposals to avert the ‘fiscal cliff’ as negotiations intensified ahead of the end-of-year deadline,” Reuters reports.

“The conversation and exchange of counteroffers over the last two days are the latest sign of possible progress in efforts to avert the automatic steep tax hikes and spending cuts set for January 1 unless Congress intervenes.”

Meanwhile, the the Wall Street Journal says the White House has told Republicans “it would include an overhaul of the corporate-tax code as part of any deal to reduce the deficit, people familiar with the talks said, putting a major priority for business groups on the table as part of the intensifying negotiations.”

The White House and House Speaker John Boehner’s office held more negotiations on on ways to break the stalemate over the “fiscal cliff,” Reuters reports.

The Wall Street Journal reports talks “have progressed steadily in recent days, people close to the process said, breathing life into talks that appeared to have stalled… The people familiar with the matter say talks have taken a marked shift in recent days as staff and leaders have consulted, becoming more ‘serious.’ Both sides have agreed to keep details private, according to the people, who declined to detail where new ground was being broken.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes President Obama has softened his rhetoric about Republicans which “coincides with an acceleration of private
meetings and discussions with the clock ticking down on the
deadline for a deal.”

Wonk Wire: What to expect if we go over the cliff.

Byron York: “First, many in the GOP do not believe that
raising the rate on top earners from 35 percent to 39.6 percent (the
rate before the Bush tax cuts) would seriously damage the economy.
Second, they know that most Americans approve of higher taxes on the top
bracket, and President Obama, having campaigned and won on that
platform, seems dead-set on higher rates. Third, they fear that if the
government does go over the cliff and Democrats propose re-lowering
taxes for everyone except the highest earners, Republicans would be in
the impossible position of resisting tax cuts for 98 percent of the
country on behalf of the top 2 percent.“

Even as progress is reported in the fiscal cliff negotiations, a new poll for The Hill finds a clear majority of voters expect President Obama and Congress will fail to reach a deal, 58% to 39%.

First Read: “If the plan is to get something passed by Friday, Dec. 21 (right before
the Christmas holiday), then the legislation has to be written by Dec.
18. And that means that Obama and Boehner must reach an agreement by
Dec. 14-15, if there’s going to be a deal. So the time for posturing and
P.R. is over.”

“Government officials may well spend New Year’s Eve crunching budget numbers rather than clinking champagne glasses,” USA Today reports.

“There’s no real incentive for the parties to reach an agreement now. Markets may want an early settlement, but, as mentioned, but the fiscal doesn’t start until Jan. 1 — more than four weeks way, a near-eternity in politics. Even after Jan. 1, elements of the fiscal cliff phase in gradually, and a new Congress could always pass legislation retroactive to the start of the year…Expect pushes for last-minute concessions.”

However, Wonk Wire notes the talks aren’t going well.

The Wall Street Journal reports President Obama “made an opening bid in budget talks with Republicans that calls for a $1.6 trillion tax increase, $50 billion in infrastructure spending in 2013 and new power to raise the federal debt limit, a provocative set of demands that Republicans said represented a step backward in efforts to avoid looming tax increases and spending cuts.”

“The proposal marked an opening salvo in negotiations over the fiscal cliff and represented a particularly expansive version of the White House’s wish list, with a heavy focus on tax increases and spending proposals–including keeping in place a payroll-tax cut and extended unemployment benefits.”

“Republicans haven’t put any comparable offer on the table.”