Dan Balz: “If justices on the Supreme Court sounded cautious and tentative as they addressed the issue of same-sex marriage Tuesday, it’s little wonder. Like everyone else in public life, they are operating in the middle of a political whirlwind.”

“The political and legal systems are caught between past and future. Public opinion has shifted rapidly, and a majority of Americans now back legalizing same-sex marriage. Among those younger than 40, support is overwhelming. The question is when and in what form the future arrives.”

Roll Call: The 12 best moments at the Supreme Court today.

“As the Supreme Court on Tuesday weighed the very meaning of marriage, several justices seemed to have developed a case of buyer’s remorse about the case before them,” the New York Times reports. “Some wondered aloud if the court had moved too fast to address whether gay and lesbian couples have a constitutional right to marry.”

The Washington Post notes the justices “wondered openly about whether it was time for the court to render a judgment.”

Tom Goldstein sees two possible scenarios with the upshot being “a modest step forward for gay rights advocates, but not a dramatic one. The Court would stay its hand for some time for society to develop its views further. But combined with a potentially significant ruling in the DOMA case being argued tomorrow, the Term will likely nonetheless end up as very significant to gay rights.”

Adam Winkler: Beware of early predictions on what the court will do.

A new CBS News poll finds support for legalizing gay marriage is at 53% to 39%, with 33% of those who support marriage equality saying they once held the opposite view.

Meanwhile, Greg Sargent notes a “sharp generational divide” among Republicans on the issue. Overall, 56% of Republicans oppose legal gay marriage. But among Republicans under 50, a plurality of 49% supports gay marriage, versus only 46% who oppose it.

Nate Silver forecasts that a national referendum to approve same-sex marriage “would have narrowly failed last year, 48% to 52%, despite national polls showing more voters approving same-sex marriage than opposing it. For right now, it is probably best to treat the question of whether a majority of Americans support same-sex marriage as having an ambiguous answer. Polls are on the verge of saying that they do, but the ballot results are more equivocal.”

“By 2016, however, voters in 32 states would be willing to vote in support of same-sex marriage, according to the model. And by 2020, voters in 44 states would do so, assuming that same-sex marriage continues to gain support at roughly its previous rate.”

New York Times: “It was 10 minutes before 1 a.m. on Saturday, Sept. 21, 1996, and there
were no cameras, no ceremony. The witching-hour timing bespoke both
political calculation and personal angst. With his signature, federal
law now defined marriage as the union of a man and woman. Mr. Clinton
considered it a gay-baiting measure, but was unwilling to risk
re-election by vetoing it.”

“For nearly 17 years since, that middle-of-the-night moment has haunted Mr. Clinton, the source of tension with friends, advisers and gay rights supporters. He tried to explain, defend and justify. He asked for understanding. Then he inched away from it bit by bit. Finally this month, he disavowed the Defense of Marriage Act entirely, urging that the law be overturned by the Supreme Court, which takes up the matter on Wednesday on the second of two days of arguments devoted to same-sex marriage issues.”

“Rarely has a former president declared that an action he took in office violated the Constitution. But Mr. Clinton’s journey from signing the Defense of Marriage Act to repudiating it mirrors larger changes in society as same-sex marriage has gone from a fringe idea to one with a majority.”

“Less than four years ago, some gay-rights activists thought it would be a mistake to wage a Supreme Court battle over gay marriage. This week, the issue comes to the nine justices for nearly three hours of argument, and gay-marriage proponents are confident of at least a partial victory,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“In a twist, the same fast-changing public opinion cited by activists has turned into the basis for one of the principal arguments at the Supreme Court by gay-marriage opponents. They say voters in some states have shown willingness to approve gay marriage, meaning there is no need for the justices to wade into the socially divisive issue. Nine states plus the District of Columbia have approved gay marriage–including three states in November 2012 votes.”

Ryan Teague Beckwith: A look at six Supreme Court precedents on marriage and gay rights.

David Hawkings: “For gays and lesbians, the marriage cases being debated at the Supreme Court this week hold the potential for either a landmark expansion or a painful contraction of their civil rights, some narrower changes, or really nothing meaningful at all. But for members of Congress — Republicans, in particular — their political lives will be shaped profoundly by whether the justices go big, go small or essentially stay home on the issue.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) told Time that he supports same-sex marriage.

Said Warner: “I support marriage equality because it is the fair and right thing to do. Like many Virginians and Americans, my views on gay marriage have evolved, and this is the inevitable extension of my efforts to promote equality and opportunity for everyone.”

Warner is up for re-election in 2014.

The Cloakroom: The march towards legalizing gay marriage seems unstoppable, but is it?

Sen. Rob Portman’s (R-OH) son, Will, writes for the Yale Daily News about telling his parents that he was gay.

“In February of freshman year, I decided to write a letter to my
parents. I’d tried to come out to them in person over winter break but
hadn’t been able to. So I found a cubicle in Bass Library one day and
went to work. Once I had something I was satisfied with, I overnighted
it to my parents and awaited a response.”

With California’s Proposition 8’s ban on gay marriage set for a hearing Tuesday before the Supreme Court, “the lawyers and activists who started the case think they may be on the verge of a historic victory,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

A ruling that gays and lesbians have an equal right to marry under the Constitution “would not only strike down the California ban but could make gay marriage legal nationwide.”

“That may go too far for the court’s majority. The conventional wisdom among legal experts is that the court will stop short of declaring that gays and lesbians have a right to marry nationwide. A narrow ruling voiding Proposition 8 would bring gay marriage to California, but it would not force a change in states where strong opposition to the idea remains.”

Washington Post: “A broad constitutional ruling is one possibility, but so is a finding that the cases are not ripe for decision.”

Meanwhile, Politico reports an openly gay cousin of Chief Justice John Roberts who wants to marry
her partner will be in the room during this week’s
hearings.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) announced her support for same-sex marriage over the weekend.

There are now 42 sitting U.S. Senators who back gay marriage. But BuzzFeed notes a handful of moderate Democrats facing tough re-election fights next year either would not state their position or refused to comment on the issue.

Karl Rove told ABC News that he can imagine the next Republican presidential nominee supporting same-sex marriage.

Said Rove: “I could.”

“Rove’s comments came days after Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman, whom Mitt Romney considered as a running mate in the 2012 election, announced that he had shifted his position and supported gay marriage. The vast majority of Republicans in Congress do not support same-sex marriage. Portman is the only sitting senator in the GOP to support same-sex marriage.”

A line has begun forming at the Supreme Court for people who want to attend next week’s arguments in two gay marriage cases, the AP reports.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) said that he supports civil unions for same-sex couples but a spokesman later said that the Republican governor “misspoke when he expressed support for the legal partnerships,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.

“I’m not gay. So I’m not going to marry one.”

— Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), quoted by Politico, when asked if his views on gay marriage were changing.

A new Pew Research survey the rise in support for same-sex marriage over the past decade is among the largest changes in opinion on any policy issue over this time period.

The survey finds that “much of the shift is attributable to the arrival of a large cohort of young adults – the Millennial generation – who are far more open to gay rights than previous generations. Equally important, however, is that 14% of all Americans – and 28% of gay marriage supporters – say they have changed their minds on this issue, often because they have a family member or friend who is gay.”

National Journal:
“Back in 2004, it was a given that a presidential candidate couldn’t
win the Democratic nomination — let alone the general election — while
supporting gay marriage. Less than decade later, Democrats understand
they have no chance at winning without supporting gay marriage.”