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Alabama Districts Knocked Down by Supreme Court

March 25, 2015 at 11:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

The Supreme Court “sided with black challengers who said Alabama’s redistricting plan improperly relied on race to draw legislative districts,” the Washington Post reports.

“The challenge was brought by black officeholders and Democrats who argued that the state’s Republican leadership packed minority voters into districts that allowed the election of African American officials but reduced their influence elsewhere.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

New Redistricting Boon to California Democrats

March 8, 2015 at 9:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

“A U.S. Supreme Court case that could force California to redraw its congressional districts has stirred up fears of a return to partisan gerrymandering, a divisive process that has been criticized for both cementing and crushing political careers,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“While the potential impact remains uncertain, both Democratic and Republican leaders agree that the ruling could solidify the Democrats’ tight grip on California’s 53-member House delegation, the largest of any state.”

“The issue stems from a lawsuit filed by Arizona’s Republican-led Legislature arguing that the Constitution gives state legislatures the exclusive responsibility for drawing congressional district boundaries. Arizona and California voters have passed measures removing that authority from lawmakers and handing it over to independent citizen commissions.”

Filed Under: Redistricting Tagged With: California

Court Weighs Putting Politics Back Into Redistricting

March 1, 2015 at 9:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

“In a reversal of the usual worries about political influence on electoral map-making, the Supreme Court is being asked to let raw politics play an even bigger role in the drawing of congressional district boundaries,” the AP reports.

“The court hears argument Monday in an appeal by Republican lawmakers in Arizona against the state’s voter-approved independent redistricting commission for creating the districts of U.S. House members. A decision striking down the commission probably would doom a similar system in neighboring California, and could affect districting commissions in 11 other states.”

Filed Under: Judiciary, Redistricting

Democrats Planning For Next Round Of Redistricting

February 20, 2015 at 6:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“Democrats launched a super PAC Thursday with the purpose of flipping state legislatures before the next round of redistricting, which will follow the 2020 elections,” the Huffington Post reports.

“The PAC, called Advantage 2020, will be led by Mark Schauer, a former Democratic congressman and Michigan state Senate leader who lost the state’s gubernatorial race to Republican Gov. Rick Snyder last year. Advantage 2020 plans to spend about $70 million over the next three elections in an attempt to chip away at GOP majorities in key battleground states where Republicans established legislative districts after the 2010 elections.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Ohio Tries to Make Elections More Competitive

December 20, 2014 at 3:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“Of 435 House races in November, only a few dozen were considered competitive — a result of decades of drawing district lines for partisan advantage, generally by state legislatures,” the New York Times reports.

“But in an era of hyperpartisan gerrymandering, which many blame for the polarization of state and national politics, Ohio took a step in the opposite direction last week. With the support of both parties, the Ohio House gave final approval Wednesday to a plan to draw voting districts for the General Assembly using a bipartisan process, intended to make elections more competitive.”

Filed Under: Redistricting Tagged With: Ohio

Study Shows Gerrymandering Distorts Election Results

November 29, 2014 at 10:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

In a new study, Duke University researchers Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn created a random series of North Carolina congressional district maps using the same vote totals from 2012, but with different borders, North Carolina Public Radio reports.

After re-running the election 100 times with a randomly drawn maps, the simulated election results found Democrats winning an average of 7.6 House seats out of 13. In fact, 95% of the random redistricting simulations found Democrats winning between 6 and 9 House seats. These finds are in stark contrast with the 4 Democrats actually elected in the 2012 elections with the same vote counts.

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]A fascinating study that shows how gerrymandering subverts the “will of the people.” [/speech_bubble]

Filed Under: 2012 Campaign, Redistricting Tagged With: gerrymandering

Emails Detail Effort to Bypass Gerrymandering Ban

November 25, 2014 at 7:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

“The Republican consultants had to be hush-hush — ‘almost paranoid’ in the words of one — because of their high-stakes mission: Get go-betweens to help circumvent a Florida Constitutional ban on gerrymandering,” the Miami Herald reports.

“The plot was spelled out in a newly released batch of once-secret emails that show how the consultants surreptitiously drew congressional and state legislative maps. They then recruited seemingly independent citizens to submit them in an effort to strengthen the hand of Florida Republicans when the GOP-led Legislature redrew lawmaker districts in 2011.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Were District Lines Drawn Because of Race or Party?

November 11, 2014 at 9:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Rick Hasen: “Recognizing this major overlap of race and party in the South is key to understanding Wednesday’s Supreme Court case involving a constitutional challenge to Alabama’s legislative redistricting. No one disputes that the Alabama legislature packed black voters into a few legislative districts, thus strengthening Republican control in the majority of districts throughout the rest of the state. But whether or not that action is constitutional depends a great deal on whether the court views this as a case about race (in which case Alabama may have acted unconstitutionally) or one about party (in which case Alabama’s actions are constitutional, if unsavory politics as usual).”

Filed Under: Race, Redistricting

Supreme Court Will Review Arizona Redistricting

October 7, 2014 at 4:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Supreme Court said it will “consider a challenge by Arizona Republicans to the state’s congressional districting map,” the AP reports.

“Arizona voters created an independent redistricting commission in 2000 in an effort to take politics out of the process. But the GOP-led state legislature complained in a lawsuit that the Constitution exclusively gives power to draw maps for congressional districts to elected state lawmakers. A divided panel of federal judges dismissed the lawsuit, but justices said they will review the lower court ruling.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

New Florida Districts Won’t Take Effect Until 2016

August 25, 2014 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Florida’s flawed congressional districts may remain in place for two more years and newly drawn boundaries for seven north and central districts don’t have to take effect until 2016,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“Judge Terry Lewis upheld the revisions to the state’s congressional map approved by the Florida Legislature during a three-day special session earlier this month. But he said the current configuration, which he ruled unconstitutional a month ago, could stand for the 2014 election.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

GOP Has Outplayed Democrats in the States

August 12, 2014 at 10:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Morning Line: “Nationwide, Democrats are underrepresented by about 19 seats, according to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, who has devoted more time and energy to redistricting than almost anyone in the country over the last few years… In 2012, despite Republicans retaining control of the House, Democrats actually won 1.4 million more votes in House races, or 50.6 percent.”

“Why does that matter? Because if the congressional districts were divided based on that, Nancy Pelosi would still be speaker. Democrats would have about 220 seats, two more than needed to pass legislation on things like immigration, infrastructure, etc. But that’s not the way it works. Republicans over the last decade devoted a lot of time and energy to state legislative races and won back more governor’s seats than Democrats. That’s part of the game.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Florida Legislators Convene Redistricting Session

August 7, 2014 at 3:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Florida lawmakers “returned to work Thursday under court-order to redraw their gerrymandered ‘mockery’ of a congressional map in order to avert a chaotic delay in this fall’s elections,” the Orlando Sentinel reports.

“And without delay, they released a plan that tweaks the contours of seven U.S. House districts spread throughout Central Florida.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Florida to Begin Redrawing Districts

August 4, 2014 at 7:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Florida legislative leaders said on Sunday they plan to call a special session on Thursday after a judge ordered them to redraw the state’s U.S. congressional maps and held open the possibility of delaying general elections in November,” Reuters reports.

Filed Under: Redistricting

Looking Ahead to the Next Redistricting Cycle

August 1, 2014 at 10:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “While this year’s midterms won’t change the course set in 2010, what happens in the 2018 and 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections will be huge in establishing who controls redistricting in 2021, and which governors can veto or influence where the lines are drawn. For Democrats, those elections will determine whether they are going to be shut out of controlling the House for a second straight decade, or whether there will be a fairer fight for dominance of the lower chamber.”

“Obviously, the political environment will also be shaped by whoever wins the presidency in 2016; how the next president performs in the 2018 midterm election, and her or his prospects for reelection in 2020, will likely determine whether the terrain will be tilted toward one party or be relatively level. But after they saw how much of a difference 2010 made, it’s pretty safe to assume that neither side will be caught asleep in these cycles.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Florida Republicans Won’t Appeal Redistricting Ruling

July 15, 2014 at 11:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Florida legislative leaders have ended their silence on the rejected congressional map and announced Tuesday they will not appeal the circuit court ruling but agree to redraw the map deemed unconstitutional because of two invalid districts,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

Filed Under: Redistricting

Inside the Florida Redistricting Ruling

July 14, 2014 at 3:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stephen Wolf: “Late last week, Leon County Circuit Court Judge Terry Lewis ruled that the congressional redistricting plan the Florida legislature enacted in 2012 was unconstitutionally violated the state’s new Fair Districts amendments… Lewis found that lawmakers drew the map with the intent of impermissibly advancing the interests of the Republican Party, improperly protecting certain incumbents and yielding districts that were not geometrically compact enough. However, due to the appeals a process, a revised map likely won’t be in place until the 2016 elections.”

“While many Democratic observers lauded the decision, it remains to be seen how big a victory plaintiffs won won. Though Lewis specifically ruled the 5th and 10th Districts were unconstitutional, only tiny segments were deemed outright violations of the Fair Districts amendments, and remedies for those segments could very well have a negligible partisan impact.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Why More Republicans Get Elected in Democratic States

July 14, 2014 at 6:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats have long claimed that Republicans abused their legislative powers to elect a disproportionate number of U.S. House members. Now a Florida court is lending credence to their complaint,” the AP reports.

“The full impact of the Florida ruling — plus a similar lawsuit pending in North Carolina — won’t be known for some while. For now, at least, they shine light on the fiercely partisan practice of gerrymandering, in which state officials draw congressional districts to help their party.”

“Republicans and Democrats have engaged in gerrymandering for decades. Republicans refined the practice in 2011, a year after they won control of numerous state governments preparing to redraw congressional maps based on the 2010 census. It’s one reason Republicans hold a solid House majority even though Americans cast 1.4 million more votes for Democratic House candidates than for GOP House candidates in 2012.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

Florida Ruling Unlikely to Impact 2014 Races

July 11, 2014 at 7:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Hill notes it’s not clear how the impact of a judge’s ruling invalidating Florida’s congressional districts will impact this year’s elections.

“The decision is certain to be appealed, and even many Democrats, who cheered the ruling, are doubtful that any redrawing could be implemented quickly enough for the 2014 elections. The state’s filing period has already closed ahead of the August 26 primary elections. The judge has yet to order actions going forward to correct the map.”

Filed Under: Redistricting

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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